The highest single-day rise of more than 1800 basis points, the RMB exchange rate is expected to remain basically stable

　　Lian Run

　　The central parity rate of the RMB against the U.S. dollar rose by more than 500 basis points, the largest single-day increase since May 24; the onshore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose by more than 1,800 basis points in the day; the offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose by more than 1,000 in the previous trading day After the basis point, it rebounded again by more than 900 basis points... On November 11, the RMB exchange rate staged a "big counterattack".

　　According to industry insiders, the RMB exchange rate will generally maintain two-way fluctuations and increase its flexibility.

The long-term strengthening trend of the RMB will not change, and the RMB exchange rate is expected to remain basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level.

　　RMB exchange rate rebounded sharply

　　According to data from the Foreign Exchange Trading Center, on the 11th, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1907 yuan, an increase of 515 basis points from the previous value, the largest single-day increase since May 24.

This week, the central parity increased by 648 basis points.

　　The market exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar rebounded more sharply.

Wind data shows that as of 16:30 on the 11th, the closing price of the onshore RMB against the U.S. dollar was 7.1106 yuan, an increase of 1368 basis points from the previous closing price, and the highest rebound in a single day was 1824 basis points; the offshore RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar was reported at 7.1008 yuan , up 518 basis points from the previous closing price, with an intraday high of 7.0550 yuan, a single-day rebound of 976 basis points.

On the 10th, the exchange rate of the offshore RMB against the US dollar rose by 1,192 basis points.

　　"The yuan has rebounded strongly against the dollar, reflecting the strong resilience of the yuan's exchange rate," said one trader.

　　At the same time, the trend of the US dollar index fluctuated greatly.

As of 16:30 on the 11th, the US dollar index reported 107.62 points, falling below the 110 mark. Since November, the index has fallen by more than 3%.

　　Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Markets Department of China Everbright Bank, analyzed that the U.S. inflation fell more than expected, and the market expected the Fed to raise interest rates to slow down, leading to a sharp drop in the dollar. In addition, the market was more optimistic about the prospects for domestic economic recovery, and the domestic market sentiment picked up, driving capital inflows.

　　Long-term strengthening trend will not change

　　Regarding the future trend of the RMB exchange rate, industry insiders said that the RMB exchange rate will generally maintain a two-way fluctuation and increase its flexibility.

　　On the one hand, if the subsequent U.S. inflation data slows down and falls, the Fed’s overall pace of interest rate hikes is expected to moderate moderately, and the external pressure on the RMB exchange rate may weaken.

　　On the other hand, my country's economic fundamentals provide a solid foundation for the RMB exchange rate to remain basically stable.

Zhou Maohua said that at present, the domestic economy is recovering steadily, the monetary policy continues to maintain a stable tone, cross-border capital flows in an orderly manner, the international balance of payments is basically balanced, and the resilience and flexibility of the RMB exchange rate have been significantly enhanced.

　　In the long run, the RMB exchange rate will continue to remain basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level.

"In the medium and long term, my country's fiscal and monetary policy space is still sufficient, the economy is resilient, and the RMB exchange rate remains basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level," said He Chao, director of macro research at Xiangcai Securities.

　　The person in charge of the relevant department of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission said that despite the impact of some unstable factors in the short term, the market position of the RMB will not change, and the long-term strengthening trend of the RMB will not change. my country's continuous balance of payments surplus and huge net foreign investment assets, providing a strong guarantee for the stability of the RMB exchange rate.