China News Service, November 9th (Xie Yiguan, a reporter from China-Singapore Finance and Economics) In October, due to the decline in consumer demand after the holiday and the high comparison base in the same period last year, the national consumer price (CPI) rose by 2.1% year-on-year, an increase over the previous month. down 0.7 percentage points.

CPI rise and fall chart.

from the National Bureau of Statistics

Year-on-year CPI growth in October fell significantly

　　According to Dong Lijuan, senior statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, in October, food prices rose by 7.0%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI increase of about 1.26 percentage points; non-food prices rose by 1.1%, a decrease from the previous month. 0.4 percentage points, affecting the CPI rise by about 0.88 percentage points.

　　Among food, the price of fresh vegetables has changed from an increase of 12.1% in the previous month to a decrease of 8.1%; the price of fresh fruit has increased by 12.6%, and the increase has dropped by 5.2 percentage points from the previous month; the price of pork has increased by 51.8%, and the increase has increased by 15.8 percentage points from the previous month; Driven by rising prices, the prices of eggs and poultry meat rose by 12.7% and 8.3% respectively, with the increase both expanding.

　　"According to estimates, in the 2.1% year-on-year increase in CPI in October, the impact of last year's price changes was about 0.1 percentage points, and the impact of new price increases was about 2.0 percentage points." Dong Lijuan mentioned that deducting the core of food and energy prices CPI rose 0.6% year-on-year, the same increase as the previous month.

　　Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Dongfang Jincheng, believes, "In October, the core CPI, which can better reflect the overall price level, continued to be at a low level of less than 1.0% year-on-year, indicating that the current overall price situation is stable. This is in sharp contrast with high inflation in Europe and the United States, and will Continue to provide important support for domestic monetary policy 'me-dominated'."

Data map: On September 15, in Jinjiang District, Chengdu, people shopped in a large supermarket.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Liu Zhongjun

Fruit and vegetable prices drop, pork prices continue to rise

　　From a month-on-month perspective, the CPI rose by 0.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.

Among them, food prices rose by 0.1%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI rise of about 0.01 percentage points.

　　In September, affected by the high temperature and little rain, the price of fresh vegetables rose sharply from the previous month, accounting for more than 40% of the total month-on-month increase in the CPI.

　　"In October, a large number of fruits, vegetables and aquatic products were launched, and consumer demand dropped after the festival. The prices of fresh vegetables, fresh fruits and aquatic products all changed from rising to falling, dropping by 4.5%, 1.6% and 2.3% respectively." Dong Lijuan said.

　　In addition, affected by factors such as the production cycle of live pigs, reluctance to sell short-term slaughtering pens and the peak season of pork consumption, pork prices rose by 9.4%, an increase of 4.0 percentage points from the previous month.

Data map: Haikou citizens shopping at the farmers market.

Photo by Zhang Yuehe

In the later period, the CPI may fall further year-on-year

　　Pork prices are an important factor affecting CPI fluctuations.

According to data from Zhuochuang Information, the average transaction price of ternary live pigs outside the country on November 7 was 25.70 yuan/kg, down 2.36% from October 31.

The highest price in Zhejiang fell 1.27% from the 31st, and the lowest price in Yunnan fell 2.35% from the 31st.

　　Huachuang Securities analyst Lei Yi believes that "the recent weak consumer demand is difficult to support the continued upward movement of pig prices. The high expectations of retail investors for pig prices have begun to dissipate, and the enthusiasm for slaughtering has increased, and pig prices have entered a volatile downward channel in the short term."

　　"Under the prospect that pork prices have basically peaked, the year-on-year decline in vegetable prices has expanded, and the weak consumption will continue to curb the growth of the core CPI, the CPI in November may further fall to about 1.8% year-on-year, and there is no suspense that prices will remain stable in the fourth quarter." Wang Qing pointed out.

(Finish)