Our reporter Wu Bofeng text / photo

　　The plug-in hybrid vehicle, which once occupied the main market share of new energy vehicles in Shanghai, was probably not expected to end today.

　　A few days ago, Shanghai issued the "Shanghai Implementation Measures for Encouraging the Purchase and Use of New Energy Vehicles" (hereinafter referred to as the "Implementation Measures"), proposing that from January 1, 2023, consumers will purchase or transfer plug-in hybrid vehicles ( Including program extension), special license quota will no longer be issued.

This means that consumers in Shanghai will no longer have the right to obtain the Shanghai green card for free when they purchase plug-in hybrid vehicles next year. Plug-in hybrid vehicles will participate in the auction of license plates just like traditional fuel vehicles.

　　As the main city for the promotion of the new energy vehicle market, Shanghai's practice of excluding plug-in hybrid vehicles can not help but lead to speculation about the future new energy vehicle market.

　　market king

　　When it comes to plug-in hybrid vehicles, I believe most consumers are no strangers.

　　In the early stage of new energy vehicle market promotion, due to the low level of core technologies in the "three power" fields led by electrification, the construction of superimposed charging infrastructure is still in the layout stage, resulting in low market acceptance of new energy vehicles.

The "oil and electricity" plug-in hybrid model has captured the hearts of many consumers by virtue of its unique advantage of not being troubled by cruising range.

　　Different from the single drive mode of pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles are equipped with both an internal combustion engine and an electric motor. Consumers can choose to use an engine or a power battery to drive the vehicle according to their daily usage habits.

　　For consumers, buying a plug-in hybrid vehicle not only meets the needs of improving fuel economy, but also does not change the original car habits, it is a good choice.

　　Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and professor of the School of Vehicles and Transportation of Tsinghua University, said in an interview with a reporter from China Consumer News: "In recent years, plug-in hybrids have begun to attract the attention of the consumer market, and the sales of related models have been stable."

　　Statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers show that in the first nine months of this year, the cumulative sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles reached 987,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 168.9%.

　　Ouyang Minggao said that from the perspective of use, compared with fuel vehicles or gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles enjoy relatively low purchase costs due to subsidy discounts, and most cities do not restrict travel. See the advantage.

　　In 2010, plug-in hybrid vehicles were officially included in the scope of financial subsidies for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles, enjoying the same treatment as pure electric vehicles.

　　It is understood that as early as 2014, a number of self-owned brand plug-in hybrid vehicles have been purchased for a period of time due to the preferential policy of free licensing in Shanghai, and even a car is difficult to find.

At that time, it was the first year of the development of new energy vehicles, and the development of the new energy vehicle consumer market depended on the performance of the plug-in hybrid vehicle market to a certain extent.

　　The data can truly reflect the market position of plug-in hybrid vehicles.

Statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers show that in 2014, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in my country was 74,763.

Among them, the sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles was 29,715 units, accounting for 40%, and the sales volume increased by 8.8 times year-on-year, far exceeding the market growth rate of 3.2 times of pure electric vehicles in the same period.

Looking back on this development process, the industry generally believes that plug-in hybrid vehicles have played an important role in the promotion of new energy vehicles.

　　However, in the actual use process, due to objective factors such as different usage habits or difficulty in charging, many consumers do not regularly charge the vehicle after purchasing a plug-in hybrid vehicle with "oil and electricity". The use of a traditional fuel vehicle has also made the plug-in hybrid vehicle with the halo of "new energy vehicle" on its head once controversial.

　　As the national subsidy policy will be withdrawn from the market at the end of this year, at this time, Shanghai issued the "Implementation Measures", which makes people worry about the future development of the former market king.

　　The price-performance advantage has dropped sharply

　　In recent years, the sales volume of my country's new energy vehicle market has grown rapidly, and it has become an important engine supporting the development of automobile enterprises and driving the growth of the new car market.

　　According to statistical data, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers predicts that from January to October this year, the cumulative sales volume of my country's new energy vehicle market will exceed the 5 million mark, and it is expected to achieve this year's new energy vehicle market promotion goals ahead of schedule.

The good performance of the new energy vehicle market is naturally inseparable from the huge role of a number of supporting policies.

　　However, after years of continuous subsidy "slope", the current state subsidies that consumers can enjoy when purchasing new energy vehicles are very limited.

According to this year's new energy vehicle subsidy policy, consumers can enjoy a cash subsidy of up to 12,600 yuan for the purchase of a new energy vehicle.

　　However, compared with the continuous shrinking of car purchase subsidies, consumers in restricted cities are more concerned about the changes in license policy.

　　At present, some cities have implemented restrictions on the purchase of new cars in order to ease the pressure on traffic.

In order to encourage consumers to choose new energy vehicles, the limited number of license plates issued each year in the purchase-restricted cities is tilted towards new energy vehicles.

　　Taking Beijing as an example, in 2022, the annual quota for Beijing's passenger car indicators will be 100,000. The quota of ordinary indicators will be adjusted from 40,000 in 2021 to 30,000 in 2022, and the quota of new energy indicators will be adjusted from 60,000. increased to 70,000.

Among them, the quota for household new energy indicators has increased to more than 44,500.

　　It is not difficult to see from the indicator quota allocation plan that for the majority of potential car buyers, new energy vehicles with higher indicator quotas are undoubtedly a better choice.

　　The reporter learned that in Shanghai, the current license plate of fuel vehicles needs to spend tens of thousands of yuan or even more than 100,000 yuan to bid.

According to the "Implementation Measures", consumers in Shanghai will need to participate in auctions for the purchase of plug-in hybrid vehicles next year, which not only greatly increases the cost of car purchases for consumers, but also raises the threshold for the purchase of related models, which will inevitably affect the purchase of plug-in hybrid vehicles. market sales.

　　Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Association, said in an interview with a reporter from China Consumer News that in the domestic auto market, first- and second-tier cities are areas with a higher market share of new energy vehicle sales.

The changes in the major new energy vehicle market promotion urban policies will have a certain impact on the new energy vehicle market.

This time, Shanghai’s approach is actually to reduce the competitiveness of plug-in hybrid vehicles in the local market and narrow the range of car buyers.

After losing the license quota advantage, consumers will have more choices in the same price range, and there will be a question mark on how many consumers will choose plug-in hybrid vehicles.

　　To a certain extent, plug-in hybrid vehicles no longer enjoy license plate quotas, which is equivalent to excluding plug-in hybrid vehicles from the new energy vehicle camp.

Whether this approach in Shanghai will trigger a series of reactions to plug-in hybrid vehicles in other cities is worthy of attention.

　　Cui Dongshu believes that changes at the policy level will inevitably affect the production and R&D investment of auto companies in related models.

　　The pure electric market share continues to increase

　　For a long time, in the new energy vehicle market, pure electric vehicles that do not emit pollution during driving have been the ultimate goal of new energy vehicle promotion.

However, due to the limitation of technical level, during the transition period from traditional fuel vehicles to new energy vehicles, plug-in, gasoline-electric and extended-range hybrid vehicles have become the transitional products of the electrification transformation of automobile enterprises.

　　At the beginning of the new energy vehicle market promotion, gasoline-electric hybrid models were excluded from the new energy vehicle camp, while plug-in hybrid vehicles were included in the scope of financial subsidies for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles, becoming a powerful force in the new energy vehicle market. competitor.

　　Today, plug-in hybrid vehicles have encountered local policy changes, and how the future market will develop has become a topic of concern.

In this regard, Ouyang Minggao believes that plug-in hybrid technology will enter a period of development and prosperity in the next few years, and plug-in hybrid models will reach the highest annual sales around 2025.

However, whether it is a plug-in hybrid technology or an extended program, it is a transitional product for the development of new energy vehicles, and it will eventually develop to a pure electric route.

　　According to the reporter's understanding, in addition to plug-in and gasoline-electric hybrids, there are only a few domestic auto companies in the field of extended-program hybrids.

Among them, Li Auto, which mainly focuses on extended-range hybrid technology, has announced that it will launch a pure electric vehicle project in the near future.

　　According to the data, as of now, pure electric models account for 78.3% of the sales of new energy vehicles.

With the accelerated transformation and upgrading of the automobile market, the market share of pure electric vehicles is expected to further increase in the future.

　　With the continuous and in-depth development of pure electric technology, it is still unknown what will happen to the development roadmap of the coexistence of various technical forms of new energy vehicles in the future.