Economic Watch: What does the three consecutive declines in China's foreign trade growth in a single month mean?

　　China News Agency, Beijing, November 7 (Reporter Li Xiaoyu) China's foreign trade growth continued to decline in October, from 16.6% in July to less than 7%.

Analysts here believe that although this will not affect China's goal of stabilizing foreign trade this year, it must be fully prepared for the hidden worries and challenges behind it.

　　According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs of China on the 7th, China's total import and export value in October increased by 6.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.4 percentage points lower than that in September.

This is the third consecutive month that China's import and export growth rate has declined.

Among them, exports increased by 7% year-on-year, and the growth rate fell by 3.7 percentage points from September.

　　In dollar terms, China's total imports and exports fell 0.4% year-on-year in October, compared with a 3.4% increase in September.

Among them, exports fell 0.3% year-on-year, while the September growth rate was 5.7%.

　　The apparent slowdown in foreign trade growth was caused by multiple factors such as weak external demand and fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate.

At present, due to factors such as the Ukraine crisis and high inflation, demand in developed economies such as the United States and Europe is weakening.

According to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) data, the U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 50.2 in October, the lowest since May 2020. Although it was slightly higher than the 50 line of prosperity and decline, the market interpreted it as manufacturing growth. has come to a standstill.

　　The downward pressure on European manufacturing is also increasing.

According to data from the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the European manufacturing PMI has been below 50% for three consecutive months in October, and has fallen to a low level below 48%.

　　Gao Lingyun, a researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with a reporter from China News Agency that as China's second and third largest trading partners, the adverse impact of the slump in the European and American markets on China's foreign trade has already appeared and may continue to exist in the future. .

However, this impact can be partially hedged by making good use of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) to further unleash the potential of cooperation with ASEAN, the largest trading partner.

　　In addition, the growth rate of China's foreign trade in October last year was as high as 17.8%, and the high base effect also led to a relatively low growth rate of foreign trade in October.

　　Analysts believe that although the decline in growth rate in October will not affect the stability of China's foreign trade in 2022, the multiple hidden worries in the future must be prepared for as soon as possible.

　　According to official statistics, the total value of China's imports and exports in the first 10 months of this year was 34.62 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%.

Gao Lingyun said that from this data, the successful achievement of China's goal of stabilizing foreign trade this year will be a high probability event.

　　Pang Ming, Chief Economist of Jones Lang LaSalle Greater China, reminded that although the year-on-year growth rate of the total import and export value in the first 10 months was relatively resilient, in the future, we must be vigilant against the increasing uncertainty of the global economic recovery, the decline in overseas demand, the global A series of problems such as supply chain adjustment and insufficient domestic demand.

The implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand should be organically combined with the deepening of supply-side structural reforms, and through two-way efforts and effective coordination on both sides of supply and demand, a high level of opening to the outside world should be adhered to, and the potential of domestic demand should be effectively tapped.

　　Officials have released positive signals on this.

At the 5th China International Import Expo being held, China announced that it will accelerate the construction of a strong domestic market, promote the optimization and upgrading of trade in goods, and expand the import of high-quality products.

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