Against the backdrop of the departure of many Western automakers from Russia, Chinese foreign cars have occupied almost a third of the country's passenger car market.

This was announced on Thursday, November 3, by the analytical agency Avtostat, citing data from Passport Industrial Consulting JSC.

According to experts, in October 2022, Russians bought more than 12.7 thousand passenger cars from China.

At the same time, Chinese cars accounted for 29.5% of total sales.

“While the entire Russian car market is falling, sales of “Chinese” are growing, and for the third month in a row.

So, in August they grew by 20%, in September - by 8%, and in October - by 3%.

Accordingly, the market share of Chinese brands is growing: if in January-March it was 9-10%, now it is three times more,” the study says.

Among the models presented in Russia from the Asian republic, Haval cars became the best-selling ones.

Approximately every third (34%) Chinese car bought in October belongs to this brand.

In addition, cars from Chinese brands such as Chery (30%), Geely (19.4%) and Exeed (9.1%) are very popular among Russians.

“We see that most other foreign companies have left Russia.

At the same time, Chinese automakers are actively entering our market, trying to quickly fill the vacant niche.

At the same time, the Chinese offer many interesting models that, in terms of their content, may well interest the Russians, ”Igor Morzharetto, partner of the Avtostat agency, told RT.

According to him, to date, Chinese cars are almost equal in cost to models of other foreign manufacturers.

Moreover, in recent years, representatives of the Chinese automotive industry have seriously improved the quality characteristics of their products, the specialist noted.

“In terms of quality, Chinese cars are now actually close to Korean models.

Meanwhile, the remaining Korean cars in our market have risen in price greatly, as traders are trying to make money by selling the rest.

Cars imported through parallel imports also became much more expensive than they were when they were imported by official suppliers or assembled from us, ”the RT interlocutor added.

Under these conditions, as Igor Morzharetto believes, the share of the Chinese auto industry in Russia will continue to grow in the foreseeable future.

At the same time, already in 2023, the country's market can be almost completely divided between AvtoVAZ and manufacturers from the Asian republic, the specialist did not rule out.

A similar point of view is shared by Alexey Fedorov, an analyst at TeleTrade.

“Considering that about 80% of the cars sold in our country were assembled in the Russian Federation, now we are left with only Chinese and Russian brands without components and supplies of finished cars.

Models of brands from other countries are either leftover stocks made before March 2022, or cars assembled from stocks of components at Russian sites, or parallel imports,” Fedorov said.

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Under the circumstances, the share of sales of LADA cars in the Russian market in October increased to 39.5% compared to 19.2% a year ago, according to Avtostat.

At the same time, the opportunities for a serious increase in domestic production of cars in the country are still limited, Aleksey Fedorov noted.

So, according to him, a significant part of the components for Russian cars was produced by departed foreign brands.

“In China, the situation is much better.

That is why manufacturers from the Middle Kingdom received all the conditions for a fairly easy expansion of the Russian automotive market, ”the specialist emphasized.

Matter of time

In total, from January to October 2022, a little more than 518 thousand new cars were sold in Russia.

This is 59.6% less than for the same period in 2021, according to the materials of Avtostat.

In the coming months, the rate of market decline may slow down, but at the moment, analysts' forecasts are still noticeably different.

Note that last year sales of new cars in Russia exceeded 1.51 million units.

According to Avtostat, by the end of 2022, the figure will decrease by 60%, to 600 thousand, and under an optimistic scenario, by 54%, to 690 thousand. At the same time, experts from Trust Technologies (a former division of PwC in Russia) expect the market to fall by only 50% - to 760 thousand. A similar, but slightly more restrained assessment is shared by the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation.

“We plan that by the end of the year the market for passenger cars will total about 750 thousand cars.

Now we have such a period of review of activities and, in general, a review of investment realities in Russia, ”RIA Novosti quotes Tigran Parsadanyan, director of the department of the automotive industry and railway engineering of the ministry.

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According to the forecast of the Technologies of Trust company, sales of new passenger cars in Russia will be able to return to pre-crisis levels only in 2024.

However, the situation in the industry is still uncertain, and further developments will depend on a number of factors, Artyom Deev, head of the AMarkets analytical department, said in a conversation with RT.

“Full recovery of the car market may take several years.

Perhaps one of the main factors in this matter will be how much the real incomes of the population will grow and whether Russians will be ready to buy new cars for themselves,” Deev believes.

Meanwhile, the car loan market in Russia has already begun to recover after a sharp collapse in the first half of the year.

Such data is provided by the National Bureau of Credit Histories (NBKI).

According to the organization, if from October to December 2021 car loans in the amount of 296.1 billion rubles were issued in the country, then in January-March 2022 the value decreased to 198.9 billion, and in April-June - to 110.8 billion. However, from July to September, the corresponding figure rose to 184.9 billion rubles.

“The significant increase in issuance compared to the second quarter was due to the low base effect, as well as a decrease in the key rate of the Bank of Russia and a reduction in market rates.

In addition to the above factors, the state program of preferential car loans resumed in July 2022 also had a serious impact on the issuance of car loans,” said Alexei Volkov, NBKI Marketing Director.

Recall that the authorities announced the resumption of the preferential car loan program in mid-July.

You can get a loan on favorable terms when buying Russian-made cars of the UAZ, Lada and GAZ brands worth up to 2 million rubles.

In this case, the discount will be 25% of the price of the vehicle in the Far Eastern Federal District and 20% in other regions of the country.

“In general, the problem now is not a shortage of cars, but the fact that their prices have risen very seriously, but there is no income for buyers.

Parallel import is still too costly a mechanism, and it does not help to reduce the retail price of a car for the consumer.

Therefore, of course, the launch of concessional lending for Russian cars and the arrival of Asian models will help our market recover from losses faster, since there are no other development options yet,” concluded Igor Morzharetto.