(Economic Watch) What signal does the 9.9% growth rate of China's foreign trade reveal?

　　China News Agency, Beijing, October 24 (Reporter Li Xiaoyu) The total value of China's imports and exports in the first three quarters recorded a year-on-year growth rate of 9.9%, although it has declined compared with the previous period, but it is still at a high level.

In an interview with a reporter from China News Agency, analysts here believe that from the perspective of this growth rate, there is little suspense that the scale of China's foreign trade this year will reach a new high on the basis of last year's more than 6 trillion US dollars.

　　According to the latest official data released on the 24th, the total value of China's imports and exports in the first three quarters reached 31.11 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous eight months.

Among them, the export growth rate reached 13.8% year-on-year, and the import growth rate was 5.2%.

　　In the same period last year, China's foreign trade grew by 22.7% year-on-year.

On the basis of such a high base, China's foreign trade achieved a growth of nearly 10% in the first three quarters of this year, a considerable increase.

　　Zhang Jianping, deputy director of the Academic Committee of the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, said that the growth rate of foreign trade was one of the most prominent highlights of China's economic "transcript" in the first three quarters.

While the Ukrainian crisis has caused global inflation to intensify and the market demand of major economies such as Europe and the United States has contracted, China's total import and export value can still achieve a growth of 9.9%, "this is a reassuring data", indicating that China The competitiveness of foreign trade was further enhanced.

　　Official data show that in 2021, the total value of China's imports and exports will reach 6.05 trillion US dollars, crossing the two thresholds of 5 trillion US dollars and 6 trillion US dollars one after another, setting a record high. The increase in foreign trade that year will reach 1.4 trillion US dollars.

In Zhang Jianping's view, based on the growth rate of foreign trade in the first three quarters and the continuous release of the effects of foreign trade stabilization policies, the scale of China's foreign trade throughout the year will hit a record high again, and it will also make a greater positive contribution to economic growth and employment stabilization.

　　Although the overall situation of foreign trade is still good, there are still hidden concerns to be resolved.

In recent months, the year-on-year growth rate of China's foreign trade has continued to decline, from 16.6% in July to 8.3% in September.

　　Gao Lingyun, a researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that there are many factors behind the monthly decline in foreign trade growth.

In addition to the base effect, the recent fall in global shipping prices and the prices of some bulk commodities has squeezed out some price bubbles in the total foreign trade value, as well as repeated epidemics in some countries.

　　Gao Lingyun said that from past experience, the trend of China's foreign trade is usually "low in the front, stable in the middle, and high in the back", and the fourth quarter is often the peak season for foreign trade companies to receive orders.

However, it remains to be seen whether the growth rate of China's foreign trade will increase significantly in the fourth quarter of this year, given the sluggish external demand.

　　Recently, many analysts have predicted that the economic prospects of Europe and the United States are extremely gloomy.

According to the modelling results released by Bloomberg economists, the probability of a recession in the United States in the next 12 months is 100%.

JPMorgan Chase even believes that the U.S. economy could fall into recession within 6 to 9 months.

According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the EU's economic growth rate may only be 0.3% next year.

　　In Zhang Jianping's view, considering the weakening of market expectations and the rising probability of economic recession in developed economies such as Europe and the United States, the year-on-year growth rate of China's foreign trade in the fourth quarter is likely to continue to fall.

　　Previously, the government has launched a series of measures to stabilize foreign trade, including strengthening guarantees in epidemic prevention, energy use, labor, logistics, etc., to ensure the timely delivery of foreign trade orders; introducing policies and measures to further support the development of cross-border e-commerce overseas warehouses; improving port collection and distribution Transport and domestic transportation efficiency, to ensure fast transfer of import and export goods, etc.

　　Zhang Jianping said that under this circumstance, the government should further strengthen the implementation of the foreign trade stabilization policies that have been introduced earlier, and adjust strategies in a timely manner according to market demand.

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