National Bureau of Statistics: CPI rose moderately in the first three quarters, PPI growth fell

　　China News Service, October 24. According to the website of the National Bureau of Statistics on the 24th, since the beginning of this year, all regions and departments have conscientiously implemented the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, efficiently coordinated epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, and accelerated the implementation of a package of policies to stabilize the economy. And continue the policy, focus on ensuring supply and stable prices.

　　1. Prices in the consumer sector generally rose moderately

　　CPI growth has expanded.

In the first three quarters, the national CPI rose by 2.0% year-on-year, an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the first half of the year.

Among them, it rose by 1.1% in the first quarter, 2.3% in the second quarter, and 2.6% in the third quarter.

On a monthly basis, the CPI has trended lower than before and then higher than the same period last year, with upward fluctuations.

In January and February, affected by factors such as the Spring Festival, the CPI increased by 0.4% and 0.6% month-on-month respectively, and both increased by 0.9% year-on-year; The year-on-year increase in CPI began to expand since March, and in June it rose by 2.5% year-on-year; in July, due to factors such as hot weather and rising pork prices, the CPI rose by 0.5% month-on-month, and the year-on-year increase expanded to 2.7%; in August, international oil prices fell, The epidemic has affected the demand for some services, and the CPI has turned down month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. In September, affected by seasonal factors and other factors, the CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, and the year-on-year increase expanded to 2.8%.

　　Food prices have risen.

In the first three quarters, food prices rose by 2.0% year-on-year, affecting the CPI rise by about 0.36 percentage points.

In food, due to the spread of the epidemic, high temperature and dry weather and other factors, the prices of some fresh food rose more, and the prices of fresh fruits, fresh vegetables, potatoes and eggs rose by 13.5%, 8.7%, 8.7% and 6.3% respectively, which together affected the CPI. Up about 0.48 percentage points; Affected by the continued high international grain prices, the domestic edible vegetable oil and flour prices rose by 6.7% and 6.0% respectively, and the increase was larger than that in the first half of the year; pork prices in the first half of the year continued to decline year-on-year. Affected by factors such as de-chemicalization, reluctance by some farmers to sell, and consumer demand rebounding, pork prices began to rise year-on-year, with an average drop of 18.0% in the first three quarters, affecting the CPI drop by about 0.30 percentage points; the prices of beef, mutton, aquatic products and dairy products Basically stable.

　　Energy prices remain high.

In the first three quarters, energy prices rose by 13.2% year-on-year, 0.8 percentage points lower than that in the first half of the year, affecting the CPI rise by about 0.93 percentage points, accounting for more than 40% of the total CPI increase.

Among them, the prices of gasoline, diesel and liquefied petroleum gas rose by 24.8%, 27.1% and 22.4% respectively, which were 1.9, 2.1 and 1.5 percentage points lower than that in the first half of the year, which together affected the CPI rise by about 0.86 percentage points; Energy prices such as natural gas remained high, rising 6.9% and 5.5%, respectively.

　　Core CPI was basically stable.

In the first three quarters, the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.9% year-on-year, 0.1 percentage point lower than that in the first half of the year, affecting about 0.70 percentage point increase in the CPI.

Among them, the price of industrial consumer goods excluding energy rose slightly, with an average increase of 0.6% in the first three quarters, the same increase as the first half of the year.

Among industrial consumer goods, the prices of air conditioners, bicycles and housing decoration materials rose by 3.9%, 3.3% and 3.1% respectively.

The price increase of services dropped, with an average increase of 0.9% in the first three quarters, 0.2 percentage points lower than that in the first half of the year.

Among the services, the prices of decoration and maintenance fees, tourism, family services and education services rose by 4.7%, 3.1%, 2.9% and 2.4% respectively, and the growth rates were all lower than that in the first half of the year; the prices of medical services and elderly care services rose by 0.9% and 1.5% respectively. , the increase was the same as that in the first half of the year; the prices of hotel accommodation and communication services decreased by 1.8% and 0.3% respectively.

　　2. The year-on-year price increase in the production sector continued to decline

　　The year-on-year increase in PPI fell.

In the first three quarters, the national PPI rose by 5.9%, which was 1.8 percentage points lower than that in the first half of the year.

Among them, it rose by 8.7% in the first quarter, 6.8% in the second quarter, and 2.5% in the third quarter, and the growth rate fell quarter by quarter.

On a monthly basis, the year-on-year increase in PPI fell from 9.1% in January to 6.1% in June.

After June, the rate of decline accelerated. In July and August, the PPI increased by 4.2% and 2.3% year-on-year, respectively, with the increase both falling by 1.9 percentage points. It narrowed by 0.5 percentage points in the month, and the decline trend slowed down.

　　Structural decline is obvious.

In the first three quarters, the prices of means of production rose by 7.4%, 2.5 percentage points lower than that in the first half of the year; the prices of means of living rose by 1.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points.

The prices of means of production have fallen a lot, which to a certain extent has eased the cost pressure faced by mid- and downstream enterprises.

Among the means of production, the price of the mining industry went up by 24.9%, the price of the raw material industry went up by 13.8%, and the price of the processing industry went up by 3.1%.

Among the living materials, the price of food increased by 2.3%, and the price of clothing increased by 1.6%, an increase of 0.8 and 0.3 percentage points respectively over the first half of the year; the price of general daily necessities increased by 1.6%, the same increase as the first half of the year; the price of durable consumer goods increased by 0.2% from the first half of the year. Turned to a decline of 0.1%.

　　Multiple factors have affected the decline in PPI gains.

The decline in PPI growth was mainly affected by three factors, in addition to the high comparison base in the same period last year.

The first is to ensure stable supply and stable prices.

The effect of increasing production and ensuring supply in the coal industry continued to show, and the price increase dropped significantly.

In the first three quarters, the price of coal mining and washing industry rose by 30.5%, which was 14.4 percentage points lower than that in the first half of the year.

Second, the pressure of imported price transmission has eased.

Since June, the prices of international bulk commodities have fluctuated downwards, and the price increases of domestic oil and natural gas exploration, chemical raw materials and chemical product manufacturing, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries and other related industries have declined.

Third, the demand in some industries is weak.

Affected by factors such as the spread of the domestic epidemic and the decline in real estate development investment, in the first three quarters, the price of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry turned from an increase of 5.8% in the first half of the year to a decrease of 1.3%; the price of non-metallic mineral products increased by 4.6%, an increase of 4.6%. 2.0 percentage points lower than the first half of the year.

It should be noted that with the effective package of economic stabilization policies and continuous policies, the demand for steel, cement and other industries rebounded in September, and the month-on-month decline in prices narrowed.

(Zhongxin Finance)