Consumption growth "turned positive" in the third quarter, how will Chinese consumption recover under the epidemic?

(Economic Watch) Consumption growth turned positive in the third quarter. How will Chinese consumption recover under the epidemic?

　　China News Service, Beijing, October 24 (Reporter Chen Su) According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on the 24th, China's consumption growth rate in the third quarter turned from negative to positive, maintaining a recovery trend.

In the context of the epidemic, how can China's consumption regain its momentum?

How is the later trend?

　　Data show that in the first three quarters, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China was 32.0305 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below), a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, 0.2 percentage points faster than that from January to August, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.7% in the first half of the year.

In terms of quarters, the growth rate in the third quarter was 3.5%, the second quarter decreased by 4.6%, the first quarter increased by 3.3%, and the third quarter recovered faster than the second quarter.

　　Dong Lihua, director of the Department of Trade and Foreign Economic Affairs of the National Bureau of Statistics of China, said when interpreting the consumption data on the same day that in the first three quarters, various departments in various regions in China efficiently coordinated epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, and actively promoted a series of consumption promotion policies. The consumer market generally maintained a momentum of recovery and growth.

The driving effect of online consumption on the consumer market was further manifested, physical retailing was gradually improved, the sales of basic living goods had a good growth momentum, consumer demand for green upgrades continued to release, and sales in rural markets recovered well.

　　Statistics show that in the first three quarters, the retail sales of consumer goods in rural areas was 4,255.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than that of urban retail sales of consumer goods.

The growth of basic living consumption was good, and the retail sales of grain, oil, food, and beverages by units above designated size increased by 9.1% and 6.9% respectively.

The national online retail sales reached 9,588.4 billion yuan, an increase of 4.0%.

Among them, the online retail sales of physical goods was 8,237.4 billion yuan, an increase of 6.1%, accounting for 25.7% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods.

　　The data shows that the overall recovery of consumer demand continues, and its fundamental role in economic development is gradually consolidated.

In the third quarter, final consumption expenditure contributed 52.4% to economic growth, driving GDP growth by 2.1 percentage points.

　　While the overall recovery is maintained, China's consumption still fluctuates in the context of the multi-point spread of the epidemic, and the recovery is still weak.

In the third quarter, the growth rate of market sales in September declined, up 2.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate in August was 5.4%.

　　"In the third quarter, China's consumption turned positive overall, but the rate of positive change was weak." Talking about the current situation of China's consumption, Wang Jun, director of the China Chief Economist Forum, told a reporter from China News Agency that the weak recovery of China's consumption was mainly due to the epidemic and the weak real estate market. Influence, the spread of the epidemic has restricted the growth of residents' income and offline consumption, and the adjustment of the real estate market has also affected related consumption such as home appliances and home improvement.

　　Zhou Jingtong, deputy dean of the Bank of China Research Institute, also said that the repeated epidemics have led to a slowdown in the growth of residents' income, the lack of consumption scenarios, and the slow recovery of the consumer market, which are the main reasons for the weak recovery of consumer demand.

For example, in the first half of the year, domestic tourist arrivals and income fell by 22.2% and 28.2% year-on-year, respectively.

　　What is the trend of China's consumption in the later stage?

　　Wang Jun said that China has taken a number of measures to improve real estate and auto sales in the early stage. It is expected that in the fourth quarter and the next six months, a wave of concentrated consumer demand will be released, which will bring a great boost to consumption.

"Consumption in the fourth quarter is expected to recover further driven by relevant government policies, but offline service consumption still depends on the development of the epidemic and needs to be judged carefully. At the same time, more efforts should be made to low-income groups and self-employed individuals who are more affected by the epidemic. , merchants, tourism, retail trade, culture and entertainment and other industries, starting from employment and income, fundamentally solve the problem of weak consumption recovery."

　　Zhou Jingtong said that with continued policy support, China's consumption is expected to maintain a recovery trend in the fourth quarter.

First, the backlog of tourism and entertainment demand at the end of 2022 is expected to be released faster due to the improvement of the epidemic prevention and control situation.

Second, automobile consumption is expected to continue to be an important factor supporting the recovery of consumption.

The China Automobile Association predicts that the average monthly sales of automobiles from September to December 2022 will be 2.533 million units, a year-on-year increase of 21%.

　　Of course, it will take some time from the improvement of employment and income to the expected improvement, and then to the recovery of consumption.

On the whole, he expects consumption to increase by about 5.5% year-on-year in the fourth quarter and about 2.2% for the whole year.

　　"In the medium and long term, the foundation of China's consumption upgrade has not been shaken." Zhou Jingtong said that residents' income will grow synchronously with the total economic output, and strategies such as new urbanization, rural revitalization, and common prosperity will continue to be promoted, which will help expand the middle income. groups, laying the foundation for future consumption upgrades.

In addition, technological progress and product innovation will further stimulate new consumer demand and promote the expansion of upgraded consumption.

　　Dong Lihua said that it must be seen that the epidemic will have a certain impact on the consumer market, the recovery of catering companies and small and micro business enterprises is relatively low, and the basis for the recovery of the consumer market still needs to be consolidated.

In the next stage, with the continuous advancement of various policies and measures for coordinating epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, a series of policies related to promoting consumption to support market players and enhance residents' willingness and ability to consume will be effective, and the consumer market will continue to recover steadily.

(Finish)