The price crisis decrees the end of abundance in the supermarket: "There are products that are not worth having on the shelves"

The macroeconomic and geopolitical context that Europe is experiencing (rise in costs, inflation, war in Ukraine...) has its

: because it is more expensive to make purchases, but also because this is causing changes in supply , forced by a consumer who looks more at the price than ever.

Added to this is a greater interest on the part of European partners for our products, which makes them even more expensive.

No more having watermelons, artichokes or mangoes 365 days a year or seven different varieties of peppers or potatoes and, what's more, everything at a reasonable price.

As the French president, Emmanuel Macron, said, "

", also in the supermarket.

Accustomed to always seeing stores overflowing with quantity and variety, the Spanish consumer has witnessed in recent months stunned episodes of rationing and occasional

breakages : when the war in Ukraine broke out, sunflower oil was in short supply, during the carriers' strike What was missing in January was milk.

Last summer was the

ice

“In this context of rising costs,

.

For the consumer it will be very complicated to go shopping.

For this reason, part of the offer will be reorganized and the stores will once again focus on the basics, because the farmer will not be paid the differential for growing purple potatoes, nor will the majority of consumers pay more for them.

Producers are at a time when they either survive and pass on the cost of production or they don't produce because they know they are going to lose money," explains Pilar Aguado, an expert in

at the Polytechnic University of Valencia and director of purchases of the company United PetFood.

Cost escalation affects the entire chain.

The producer, who has raised the price of energy and feed with which he feeds his animals, has to charge more for the product he sells.

The distributor, in turn, also pays more for the energy and for what he buys from the supplier.

“There are some products that have become so expensive at origin that sometimes

because we cannot pass on that extra cost to the consumer,” they explain from a supermarket chain.

problems in germany

In Germany, some chains are starting to do away with products from big manufacturers because they refuse to pay what they see as unreasonable prices for them.

These, in turn, allege that the costs have skyrocketed.

This is the case, for example, of the Mars brand of cereals or chocolate bars.

This week some chains showed the shelves dedicated to these products almost empty.

"Dear customers: We regret to inform you that

," read a note in an aisle of an Edeka supermarket in Berlin.

In Spain that has not happened, but distribution sources do acknowledge that "in industrial products some suppliers have already communicated the

."

«These increases, without a doubt, give rise to tensions because you have to decide what is worse: whether to dispense with the product or pass the increase on to the consumer.

It is a very risky decision for the super.

The one who makes the assortment is responsible for deciding if at that price it is worth having the item or not»

.

This “

”, they warn.

On the contrary.

The rise in costs has meant that some "have stopped producing because they are not compensated," explains Pilar Aguado.

This is the case of the Dutch tomato, for example, "because it needs heating and the costs have risen so much that it was not worth it," they explain from UPA, the Union of Small Farmers.

They do not believe that there has been a "strong rise in prices in horticulture", but they recall that there are products that have skyrocketed more because "there has been a perfect storm": harvests have been scarce, less cereal arrives from the Ukraine (for Europe one of the the main suppliers) and by the increase in production costs.

Substitution

“Due to the situation we are experiencing, it is going to happen that from now on sometimes we are not going to find the product we want in stores, and if we find it,

because we are not going to want to pay for it at that price.

But the consumer will always have a large offer and alternatives”, they explain from a supermarket chain.

Pilar Aguado believes that "there will be no rationing, but

and there will not be as much availability in the market", especially in the case of fresh products.

As an executive from the distribution sector explains, "the variety of peppers has multiplied in recent years, for example.

It may happen that, out of so much variety to which we are accustomed, there are now products that, due to market and cost issues,

but there will always be another alternative », he points out.

This change in supply will also be forced by the consumer, who is looking for savings.

“We are in

, we have been substituting some products for less expensive ones all year long,” he adds.

Distribution in Spain is the most competitive in Europe.

There are many chains and since the margins are small (no more than 2%), they seek purchase volume and visits to gain share.

There is a lot of competition and that is why "they cannot afford to restrict the offer too much, because if a customer does not find the product they need in one store, they are going to go to another, but you not only lose the sale of that product, but that of the entire basket”, explain distribution sources.

«In difficult circumstances like the current ones, distribution is acting with great responsibility when deciding the assortment.

If in any case this implies dispensing with an excessively high-priced product, what this shows is that

ado », says Ignacio García-Magarzo, general director of Asedas, the employer's association of the supermarkets.

more demand

There is another element that feeds the problem and that is that, as Spain is one of the main producing countries, there is a greater demand from European markets and that causes prices to rise.

The rise in costs and the lack of cereal due to the war in Ukraine "affects us all and there are

products in Spain that they did not buy before," explain sources from the agri-food sector.

“That is good for the producer, while for supermarkets and distributors it is a challenge because we have been competing with European markets for some time, exporting our product, and now it is going to go even further,” these sources explain.

«It is actually a

.

It is true that there is a problem of rising costs and raw materials, but on the other hand we are a great agri-food power and there is a great opportunity for producers who have a product to offer to the market", explain sources from the primary sector.

Distribution may have "some provisioning difficulties" because of it.

“If there is no oil and Spain is the main producing country, everyone will come here to buy it.

», they explain from the primary sector, who recall that the last cereal harvests were not good, to which we add the loss of what we imported to Ukraine, hence the feed has skyrocketed of animals and, as a consequence, most food products.

For this reason, “it may happen that some supermarkets encounter

, but they risk a lot if they have out of

in the basics, since they run the risk that customers go to another store.

For example, to the specialist channel, the greengrocer of all life.

There will not be a shortage, but there will be some stores that offer more supply and others that do not, that reduce it and go to the basics.

invisible costs

The rise in prices at origin (what it costs more for the farmer to produce a potato) is not transferred in the same way at the destination (what the supermarket charges for the potato), because the links in the chain (intermediaries, transport, packaging... .) «They are absorbing these increases in their respective margins» recall sources from the agri-food sector.

«There are a series of invisible links that contribute to raising the price, they are invisible costs that are also passed on and make the product more expensive.

For example, in the commercialization phase, strawberries, before being packaged, go through several stages (calibration, see if there is any loss...) and each one of them has

, they are invisible”, they point out. .

From UPA, they insist that «the price configuration is still not perfect.

Before we had the crumbs and

than a year ago.

We hope that distribution adjusts the margin and does not stop offering local and seasonal products just because they have risen.

That we are no longer going to have watermelons out of season?

Well, maybe that's normal and not the other ».

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