Original title: The first home loan interest rate in 10 cities has entered the "3 era"!
What signal?
Experts see it this way
After the People's Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission on September 29 relaxed the lower limit of the first home loan interest rate in some cities, the first home loan interest rate in many places has entered the "three eras".
According to statistics from the Shell Research Institute, as of October 19, the first-home loan interest rates in 10 cities including Shijiazhuang, Guiyang, Tianjin, Wuhan, and Yichang have dropped below 4%.
Among them, Shijiazhuang and Lanzhou have the largest reduction in the mainstream interest rate of first home loan, reaching 30 basis points.
In October, the mainstream first home loan interest rate in 103 key cities monitored by the Shell Research Institute was 4.12%, down 3 basis points from the previous month; the second home loan interest rate was 4.91%, the same as the previous month.
At the same time, the average lending cycle in October was 26 days, and the overall lending speed was relatively fast.
On October 20, the central bank announced the market quoted interest rate (LPR) for loans with a maturity of more than 5 years at 4.3%, unchanged from the previous month.
Industry insiders believe that the phased relaxation of the lower limit of loan interest rates for first home buyers will help increase market transactions.
The central government's recent "top-down" relaxation of real estate policies has further raised expectations for future policy relaxation, and continues to be optimistic about the room for policy relaxation in the future, especially the purchase and loan restrictions in first- and second-tier core cities.
The first home loan interest rate in 10 cities has entered the "3 era"
On September 29, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a notice stating that for cities where the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings from June to August 2022 continued to drop month-on-month and year-on-year, they can independently decide to maintain, reduce or cancel local new projects before the end of 2022. The lower limit of the interest rate for the first home loan is issued.
According to data provided by the Think Tank Center of the E-House Research Institute, at least 23 of the 70 large and medium-sized cities in the National Bureau of Statistics meet the requirements of the central bank's new policy.
Among them, there are 8 second-tier cities, namely Harbin, Lanzhou, Wuhan, Dalian, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Kunming and Guiyang.
There are 15 third-tier cities, namely Quanzhou, Wenzhou, Luzhou, Yueyang, Yichang, Beihai, Dali, Qinhuangdao, Zhanjiang, Baotou, Anqing, Jining, Changde, Xiangyang and Guilin.
The latest statistics from the Shell Research Institute show that, affected by this policy, as of October 19, the first home loan interest rate in 10 cities has dropped to the beginning of 3, mainly in Hubei, Guangdong and other places.
Among the second-tier cities, the first-home loan interest rate in Kunming dropped to 3.95%, the first-home loan interest rate in Wuhan, Tianjin and Guiyang dropped to 3.9%, and the first-home loan interest rate in Shijiazhuang dropped to 3.8%.
Among the third- and fourth-tier cities, Qingyuan has the lowest interest rate for the first set, which has dropped to 3.7%.
In terms of changes in interest rates, the mainstream interest rates for first home loans in Shijiazhuang and Lanzhou fell the most in October, reaching 30 basis points.
In addition, among the cities that meet the policy of phased relaxation of the lower limit of mortgage interest rates, including Dalian, Harbin, Wenzhou, Quanzhou and other cities, the mortgage interest rate is at the level of 4.1%, and there is still room for correction in the later period.
In addition to commercial loan interest rates, provident fund loan interest rates have also been lowered.
On September 30, the People's Bank of China decided to lower the loan interest rate of the first personal housing provident fund by 0.15 percentage points, and the interest rates of less than 5 years (including 5 years) and more than 5 years were adjusted to 2.6% and 3.1% respectively.
According to incomplete statistics, more than 30 places including Henan, Hainan, Beijing, Chongqing, Anhui, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Jinan, Chengdu, Tianjin and Wuxi have implemented the new loan interest rate (3.1% over 5-year term).
Statistics from the Shell Research Institute show that in October 2022, the mainstream interest rate index for first- and second-home loans continued to decline month-on-month. The average first-home mainstream interest rate was 4.12%, down 3 basis points month-on-month; the second-home average was 4.91%, the same as the previous month. , the average interest rates of the first and second sets fell by 162 basis points and 109 basis points respectively from the highest point last year.
According to statistics from the Shell Research Institute, in terms of city lines, first-tier cities have the highest mortgage interest rates, with an average of 4.60% for the first set and 5.13% for the second set, the same as last month.
Second-tier cities have the lowest first-home loan interest rates, averaging 4.08%, while third- and fourth-tier cities have an average first-home loan interest rate of 4.11%.
Judging from the rate of interest rate cuts, the third- and fourth-tier cities saw the biggest year-on-year declines in mortgage interest rates, with first- and second-tier interest rates falling by 169 basis points and 116 basis points respectively.
Based on the 1 million commercial loan principal for the first home and the 30-year equal principal and interest repayment, the average monthly monthly payment can be reduced by about 1,036 yuan, and the total interest to be repaid is reduced by about 370,000 yuan. , the second set of interest rates decreased by only 60 basis points and 52 basis points year-on-year.
It is worth noting that under the condition that the interest rate policy for second home loans has not changed, the second home loan interest rate of 95% of the 103 cities monitored by the Shell Research Institute in October remained at the lower limit of 4.9%.
Liu Lijie, a market analyst at Shell Research Institute, believes that the phased relaxation of the lower limit of the first-home loan interest rate, combined with the relaxation of purchase restrictions and loan restrictions, will significantly reduce the purchase cost of the first-time homebuyer group and accelerate the decision-making of homebuyers, which will help increase market transactions.
In the context of the increasingly dominant role of improvement demand on the market, policy should also pay attention to reducing the loan interest rates of "sell one to buy one" and "sell old to buy new", which is a necessary measure in line with the actual housing consumption in most cities. In the future, the possibility of further structural relaxation of the loan interest rate policy for second home buyers cannot be ruled out.
The industry is optimistic about the future policy will continue to be loose
At the end of September, the central bank, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and the Ministry of Finance successively issued a combination of policies such as loosening the lower limit of housing loan interest rates, lowering the interest rate of provident fund loans, and tax reduction and exemption for replacement and purchase of houses within two days.
The research report of Cinda Securities believes that compared with the small frequency of local relaxation policies in the previous period, the use of this round of national policy toolboxes has released a positive signal to stabilize real estate from the top down. Act on residents' confidence and market expectations.
The Cinda Securities Research Report also pointed out that reducing the down payment ratio and other regulatory methods will be more intuitive to stimulate demand. With the use of this round of policy toolboxes, it is expected that the relaxation policy will continue to be followed up nationwide in the future, including policies other than personal tax. More intensive control methods such as adjustment of other transaction taxes and fees, nationwide mortgage non-recognized housing, identification and adjustment of down payment ratio (first set and second set) are expected to be introduced one after another.
Guosheng Securities Research Report also believes that since the beginning of this year, the real estate policy has shown the characteristics of "policy based on the city, small steps and fast running".
The central government's recent "top-down" relaxation of real estate policies has further raised expectations for future policy relaxation, and continues to be optimistic about the room for policy relaxation in the future, especially the purchase and loan restrictions in first- and second-tier core cities.
Under the spring breeze of the policy, the second-hand housing market has taken the lead in recovering, and the average number of weekly transactions has hit a new high for the year.
The research report of Ping An Securities believes that the direction of short-term policy improvement has not changed. With the gradual accumulation of policy effects, the new housing market is expected to gradually recover in the fourth quarter.
The Middle Finger Research Institute believes that in the future, reasonable housing demand will still be the main object of policy support and encouragement, and there is still room for the release of rigid and improved housing demand, especially as people's needs for a better life are becoming more and more extensive, and the demand for improved housing may become a market-driven demand. key support.