In view of the further decline in gas consumption and almost full storage facilities, the Federal Network Agency is more confident about the coming winter.

According to their calculations, however, a gas shortage cannot be ruled out at particularly low temperatures.

In the worst case, the storage could be empty by the end of February, according to a paper in which the authority is running through various scenarios.

Helmut Buender

Business correspondent in Düsseldorf.

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"Thanks to the good precautions we have taken in recent months, we are now in a better position," said Klaus Müller, President of the Authority.

“We are seeing the first savings in gas consumption.

It's encouraging, we have to keep going."

Savings of at least 20 percent remained the basic prerequisite for getting through the winter without a lack of gas.

Gas consumption drops significantly

For the time being, the unusually warm autumn weather will help.

In the past week, private households and businesses have once again significantly reduced their gas consumption.

On average, 608 gigawatt hours were burned per day compared to 1136 gigawatt hours last year.

Compared to the more meaningful average for the years 2018 to 2021, which the network agency uses as a reference, consumption has fallen by 31 percent.

According to the new figures in the reporting week, industrial consumption was around 25 percent below the four-year average.

In its scenario paper, the network agency assumes falling imports and rising exports for the coming months.

With the start of the heating season, imports via Belgium and the Netherlands in particular are likely to decrease.

At the same time, demand is increasing in Southern and Eastern Europe, which could result in additional deliveries from Germany.

After deducting exports, 97 gigawatt hours of gas are currently available net.

Thanks to the higher deliveries from Europe and LNG imports, this is hardly less than before deliveries via Nord Stream 1 were stopped. In addition, the network agency is relying on the planned new terminals for liquefied gas imports.

"We haven't reached our destination yet, but we've gone quite a distance," the paper says.

Several variables would have changed significantly for the better.

Depending on the development of foreign trade, the network agency expects that gas will be available in a range of 78 gigawatt hours (scenario 1) to 51 gigawatt hours (scenario 2) in the winter.

In both variants, it is assumed that gas will be withdrawn from the storage facilities from the end of October.

In a "normal temperature year" the stores would last until spring.

However, if imports fell significantly and exports were particularly high (scenario 2), the stocks would be practically exhausted in April.

That would raise “consequential problems for the coming winter”, it is said.

For both variants, the network agency has also calculated what would happen in the event of particularly low temperatures and a cold period assumed for February.

In Scenario 1, even that would be manageable.

The filling levels would then still be 47 percent in March.

In scenario 2, on the other hand, Germany would run out of gas at the end of February.

"Reducing gas consumption therefore remains important in order to avoid a possible gas shortage in a cold winter," warns the network agency.