China News Service, October 20 (Zhongxin Finance and Economics Gong Hongyu) The latest loan market quoted rate (LPR) announced by the National Interbank Funding Center on the 20th shows that the one-year LPR interest rate is 3.65%, and the five-year period is 3.65%. The above LPR rate is 4.3%.
Although some market participants believed that the LPR with a period of more than 5 years may usher in a downward adjustment, the LPR with a period of more than 5 years and a period of more than 5 years remained unchanged in this round.
This is also the second consecutive month that the LPR interest rate has remained unchanged since the asymmetric reduction in August this year.
Data map: People's Bank of China.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Xinglong
Why does LPR "stand still"?
Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, pointed out that the LPR interest rate is linked to the medium-term lending facility (MLF) interest rate. Under the background that the MLF interest rate has not been adjusted in October, the pricing basis of the LPR quotation in October has not changed.
On October 17, the central bank launched a 500 billion yuan MLF operation and a 2 billion yuan open market reverse repurchase operation, and the winning rates were 2.75% and 2%, which were consistent with the previous ones.
Wen Bin also mentioned that with the accelerated implementation of a series of growth-stabilizing policies, financial data improved significantly in September, the effective demand for credit has rebounded, and the credit structure has been optimized.
The effect of the follow-up policy will continue to be effective, and it will still be in the observation period of the policy effect in the short term, and it is not necessary to lower the policy interest rate again.
Data released by the central bank showed that RMB loans increased by 2.47 trillion yuan in September, an increase of 810.8 billion yuan year-on-year.
At the end of September, the balance of RMB loans was 210.76 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%.
"Since the second quarter, due to the imbalance between supply and demand and the double squeeze of deposits and loans, loan interest rates have continued to decline, and the pressure on banks to narrow their net interest margins has further increased. In August, LPR has been asymmetrically lowered and the effect is showing the background. In the short term, the motivation to lower the LPR quotation again is not strong." Wen Bin said.
According to data released by the National Finance and Development Laboratory, the overall net interest margin of commercial banks at the end of June was 1.94%, a decrease of 3 basis points from the previous month and a decrease of 12 basis points from the same period last year. The net interest margin was lower than 2% for two consecutive quarters.
In addition, Wang Qing, an analyst at Orient Jincheng Securities, said that the favorable policies for the property market at the end of September were "three arrows", including allowing some eligible cities to cancel the lower limit of the local newly issued housing loan interest rate, and reducing the first housing provident fund loan. interest rate.
It is currently in a period of policy effect observation.
From the perspective of external factors, Wen Bin believes that the US CPI rose more than expected in September, pushing up the probability that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates by 75 basis points, the 10-year US bond yield has once again risen above 4%, and the Sino-US interest rate gap has inverted The range has widened further and put pressure on the RMB exchange rate, restricting the room for domestic monetary policy easing to a certain extent.
Is there still room for downward adjustment in LPR during the year?
"Next, in order to guide the property market to stabilize and recover as soon as possible, it is the key to continue to reduce the residential mortgage interest rate. And the current residential mortgage interest rate is still at a high level." Wang Qing pointed out that in order to promote the further decline of the mortgage interest rate, in addition to further relaxation of the first mortgage interest rate Outside the lower limit, the quotation of LPR with a period of more than 5 years needs to be lowered first.
At the same time, Wang Qing mentioned that since September 15, large state-owned banks have started a new round of deposit interest rate cuts, and other banks are following suit; on the whole, this round of deposit interest rate cuts is significantly larger than the first deposit interest rate adjustment of the year in April. .
This will effectively reduce the bank's capital cost and provide impetus for lowering the LPR quotation.
Therefore, Wang Qing believes that even if the MLF interest rate remains unchanged before the end of the year, the quotation of LPR with a maturity of more than 5 years may be reduced by 10-15 basis points again.
(Finish)