Decaffeinated summit in Brussels: major challenge, minimal consensus

• War The EU sanctions Iran for its military aid to Russia in Ukraine

• European Commission Brussels proposes joint purchases and changes in gas benchmarks, but again disappoints with lack of ambition against energy crisis

There are critical European summits where vital decisions are made, there are 'bridge' summits that make a transition so that in the next one all pending things can be closed and summits that are purely formalities, which are held because they are on the calendar, but of which little is expected and less is achieved.

The European Council that brings together today and tomorrow the Heads of State and Government of the 27 aimed a few weeks ago to be one of the first, after Russia's war escalation in Ukraine, Iranian involvement and, above all, the energy crisis.

Over time, those expectations have been lowered.

Despite the grandiloquence of the last informal meeting in Prague, where it seemed that the leaders of the continent had finally accepted that it was necessary to go much deeper, the negotiations do not prosper,

and the meeting, which seemed destined for mere transition, runs the risk of ending up being little more than a procedure without consequences.

The EU has been approving measures for months, but they all seem to fall short, and although the problem is evident to everyone, and the consequences reach the streets,

on what the necessary solutions are.

It seemed that with the pandemic, both on the part of the vaccines and of the economic reactions and the response to the invasion, the practices of the past decade in the Union had been left behind, that of paralysis, blockades and endless meetings to end up approving what that should have been done years earlier, with enormous impact and damage.

But in the energy issue, echoes of those errors are clearly perceived.

A year ago, any intervention was ruled out and the Commission and a good part of the Member States said that the energy crisis would be short, that prices would drop quickly, that inflation was temporary and that touching the market (electricity, gas, energy in general) was a mistake and that any remedy would be worse than the disease.

.

With the passage of time, and the progress of the war, everything that was taboo has been broken.

All.

But despite them, the reaction continues to be slow, full of setbacks, obstacles.

In Prague, the leaders of the 27 seemed to mandate the Commission to go beyond everything done to date (flexibility in the framework of State aid, direct aid to the most vulnerable, relaxation of financing requirements, voluntary reductions or regulations on gas and electricity consumption, joint purchases, taxes on extraordinary profits of companies in the sector, but also the Iberian exceptionality) and explore ways of putting a limit at the level of the entire EU on how the price of gas affects the generation of electricity, to put caps on the gas that is bought abroad (from Russia to allies such as Norway) and to change the reference index (TTF, of the Dutch stock market) that is used in a large part of the market transactions.

Ursula von der Leyen's response, however,

.

Von der Leyen's thesis is that the division and polarization is so great on some issues that it doesn't make sense to put in some black-on-white legislation and lead to more clashes.

"There are two blocks,

. If everyone is a little angry, it should not go so badly," community sources explain.

That vision infuriates many countries and part of the Brussels bubble.

"The Commission has the legislative initiative, it cannot always be in tow, it is absurd. If it waits for a consensus in the Council for everything, we would never move forward. Consensus is built with ideas and is promoted with legislative proposals, not the other way around" says a frustrated senior official.

Several diplomatic delegations add another factor: although the pressure seems high, some leaders are reasonably calm because

.

There are reserves, prices have come down somewhat, dependence on Russia has been greatly reduced and speculators may partially back down in the face of interventions.

He put on the table joint purchases of gas (mandatory for companies,

), a change in the reference index six months from now, the establishment of a "dynamic" cap for gas until then, which prevents speculation in the derivatives market.

Use part of the Structural Funds not yet spent to mitigate the rise in electricity (but not a new common debt fund).

And relaxations in collateral demands for companies that are most asphyxiated by liquidity, with broader thresholds for over-the-counter operations as well.

But nothing else.

No caps yet, neither on imports nor on electricity generation.

Nothing to promote a mechanism that is even remotely similar to the one used by Spain and Portugal.

President Von der Leyen once again praised this "Iberian exception" this Wednesday, saying that it has worked and that "it is worth studying"

something similar to grand climbing.

But everything stays there, on the list of pending and good wishes.

The Commission fears three consequences if something similar to the Iberian mechanism is launched, which limits the effect of gas on electricity generation and is paid for by system users to compensate power generators.

Von der Leyen's team believes that generalizing this exception can cause increases in consumption and the use of gas to produce electricity.

The second consequence is that there are distortions in the single market.

, and that is controllable because precisely the Iberian Peninsula is very poorly interconnected.

But if the whole continent replicates it there could be problems.

The third reason, the one that most worries Brussels, they say, is that such a mechanism would clearly benefit some more than others, and while the first two variables are "mitigatable", this one is not, or not very clearly.

So they continue to explore and work on technical solutions.

Countries like

which have always been opposed to intervening in the market, still do not see it clearly.

They think it's a mistake, that it's dangerous.

They still think that prices will come down soon or that they have stabilized enough.

They do not want to intervene in the market, nor put limits.

They accept that the liquefied gas index will have to be changed, but they see no need to make a temporary dynamic cap until then.

It would be a waste of time and prices are already controlled, they point out.

And furthermore, markets can panic if you go too far, too fast, or alter long-term contracts.

It is expected that after listening to the Ukrainian president, Volodimir Zelensky, he will go directly to the energy issue, and that it will last as long as it has to last.

The European Council drafts drawn up by

's team seek somewhat clearer language.

If in the previous meeting the Commission was asked to "explore" putting a limit on how the price of gas sets the price of electricity in the marginal market, the latest versions mandate the Commission to "propose" it without further delay.

But according to diplomatic sources, that text "is not stabilized."

The leaders will roll up their sleeves and depending on the dynamics, the tone and the ferocity, they will be able to go further.

There is a meeting of energy ministers next week in Luxembourg, but it already seems clear that another extraordinary Energy Council will be necessary before the end.

Not of heads of state, but of ministers.

The Commission's proposal advances in some aspects, but it does not cover everything that was asked of it, nor has it had time to study it in depth.

"

.

It was clear that he would not arrive in time.

It is true that it is something very technical, very complicated, and that the division is real, but it gives the feeling that some have relaxed and believe that the worst is over, and they are going slowly," diplomatic sources lament. When the summary of the most ambitious is that they are satisfied with not going backwards, or with the fact that there is no stagnation, and that any progress is better than nothing, it is that the expectations are not up to the task, neither the challenge, nor the shouts from the street .

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