When the recovery growth of international routes is in progress, the industry says it is expected to drive airline operations out of the trough

　　Our reporter Yin Gaofeng

　　Trainee reporter Xu Linyan

　　At present, although the overall operation of many airlines is still at a low point, the international business has begun to show recovery growth.

　　According to flight steward data, domestic airlines operated about 35 passenger flights per day on international routes in September, up 24.5% from August, with an average daily capacity of 10,147 seats, up 26.5% from August.

　　Recently, a number of airlines have indicated that they will further resume and increase international routes.

In this regard, Wanlian Securities Investment Consultant Qu Fang believes that the current gradual addition and opening of routes is mainly to expand international personnel exchanges and improve the efficiency and effectiveness of international trade.

The resumption of flights provides support for the gradual liberalization of outbound travel, which is conducive to the recovery of the entire tourism sector.

　　Overall still running low

　　Yang Ming (pseudonym) is a front-line employee of the Northwest branch of a listed airline company. He is mainly responsible for the pick-up and drop-off of the company's flights at the airport.

When contacting Yang Ming, he happened to be on vacation.

"The current vacation time is a lot more." Yang Ming said to the "Securities Daily" reporter with a little helplessness. As a front-line staff, the most obvious thing is the decrease in workload.

　　Yang Ming's situation is only a microcosm of the current aviation industry.

In the past two years or so, airlines have basically been struggling to move forward due to the impact of the new crown epidemic.

　　According to the data of Oriental Fortune Choice, in the first half of this year, among the 16 companies in the aviation and airport sector, only 3 companies recorded positive year-on-year growth in operating income; in terms of net profit attributable to the parent, only 2 companies achieved positive year-on-year growth. Some companies have lost money.

Among them, Spring Airlines has the largest decline in performance; Air China has the largest loss, with a total loss of 19.435 billion yuan in the first half of 2022.

　　The September operating data released by a number of listed airlines shows that the overall supply and demand situation of major airlines is still hovering at a low level.

　　According to data released by HNA Holdings on October 18, in September, the company and its subsidiaries carried 1.2765 million passengers, a decrease of 49.25% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 62.29%.

China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines have also previously announced relevant data.

In September, the passenger transport capacity input of China Southern Airlines and its subsidiaries (in terms of available seat kilometers) decreased by 33.79% year-on-year, and the passenger transport capacity investment of China Eastern Airlines decreased by 33.36% year-on-year.

　　"From the current situation, most airlines will not be profitable in the third quarter." Han Tao, a researcher at the China Air Transport Association, said in an interview with a "Securities Daily" reporter.

　　International business resumes growth

　　According to China Eastern Airlines' official Weibo account, China Eastern Airlines plans to resume multiple international routes by the end of October, including Shanghai-Bangkok-Qingdao, Hangzhou/Qingdao/Nanjing/Kunming-Tokyo Narita, Qingdao/Nanjing/Yantai-Seoul Incheon, Qingdao-Dubai other routes.

Since the official opening of the winter and spring flight season on October 30, 2022, China Eastern Airlines plans to increase its weekly passenger international routes to 42 with 108 flights.

China Southern Airlines also recently announced that from October 23, it will add a new Shenyang-Seoul flight.

　　The September operating data released by HNA Holdings showed that that month, the number of international passengers carried reached 12,600, a year-on-year increase of 116.75%.

Domestic freight and mail volume reached 13,900 tons, down 53.56% year-on-year; international freight and mail volume reached 2,790 tons, up 72.06% year-on-year.

As for China Southern Airlines, its passenger transport capacity input (in terms of availability kilometers) in September increased by 227.66% and 17.01% year-on-year respectively.

During the same period, China Eastern's international passenger transport capacity investment (measured in available seat kilometers) and international passenger turnover increased by 13.07% and 25.06% year-on-year, respectively.

At the same time, the airline's international passenger load factor also increased by 6.28 percentage points to 65.55%.

　　It is worth noting that in September, the international part of HNA Holding's passenger transport capacity increased by 186.38% year-on-year; the international part of passenger turnover increased by 99.10% year-on-year.

　　In Han Tao's view, the number of passengers on international flights increased significantly in September. The main background is that the executive meeting of the State Council in August decided to increase domestic and international passenger flights in an orderly manner and formulate measures to facilitate the exchange of personnel from foreign companies; it also includes the ninth edition of the epidemic prevention guide entry policy. adjustment, and the Civil Aviation Administration to optimize and adjust the "five one" circuit breaker policy.

　　"Judging from the data released by some airlines in September, the overall operation is still at a low level, but from the perspective of business classification, the business of international routes has grown." Qu Fang said, judging from the current situation, the aviation industry is expected to usher in a turnaround next year. .

　　"From the current situation, we are optimistic about the economic recovery and the recovery of foreign tourism in 2023, which will further drive the recovery of the aviation industry." Dr. Ding Bingzhong, partner of Wuxu Assets, said in an interview with a reporter from "Securities Daily".

　　"Looking forward, as the epidemic is well controlled, aviation, tourism and other industries are expected to reverse their predicament." Ding Bingzhong said.

(Securities Daily)