According to financial statistics released by the People's Bank of China for the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 18.08 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 1.36 trillion yuan.
Among them, RMB loans increased by 2.47 trillion yuan in September, an increase of 810.8 billion yuan year-on-year.
This is a sign worthy of attention, indicating that the demand for credit has begun to recover, the investment confidence of enterprises and residents has begun to recover, and the momentum of economic recovery will gradually increase, thus laying a solid foundation for stable growth, stable employment, stable people's livelihood, and stable expectations.
Affected by the combination of internal and external factors, there have been major problems in the operation of enterprises since the beginning of this year. Especially in the second quarter, due to the impact of the epidemic, the economic growth rate has slowed down significantly.
Therefore, it is urgent to boost the economy, boost confidence, and boost expectations by expanding investment, activating consumption, and releasing demand.
Judging from the investment confidence of enterprises, in the first three quarters, loans to enterprises (institutions) increased by 14.48 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 3.28 trillion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 8.65 trillion yuan, and bill financing increased by 2.5 trillion yuan .
In particular, medium and long-term loans can increase by 8.65 trillion yuan, which fully shows that the confidence in corporate development is improving, the expectations for the future are increasing, and the enthusiasm for investment is growing.
Once the development momentum of enterprises is effectively released, the effect on economic growth will be very obvious, and the efficiency of stabilizing economic growth will also be greatly improved.
Among them, entrepreneurs can have full confidence in the development prospects and the market prospects of the company, and they can find a foothold and breakthrough point in the complex external environment and the contradiction between supply and demand, which will help to overcome the immediate difficulties and overcome the difficulties as soon as possible. .
Now, what enterprises need most is policy support and environmental nourishment. They need the government, departments, public service agencies, etc., to give enterprises the greatest support within the scope permitted by policies and laws.
In particular, the support in terms of work efficiency, service level, and business environment can enable entrepreneurs to further open their hands and feet, keep up with market trends, and tap new potentials in the industry.
From the perspective of residents' investment confidence, in the first three quarters, household loans increased by 3.41 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 1.09 trillion yuan, and medium and long-term loans increased by 2.32 trillion yuan.
The increase in medium and long-term loans of households indicates that the enthusiasm of residents to buy houses has also begun to recover, and the wait-and-see mood is weakening, which undoubtedly has a positive effect on the real estate market getting out of the downturn, and the rigid housing needs of residents will be better satisfied.
Residents' medium and long-term loans are closely related to mortgage loans for house purchases, and can be used as an important indicator to observe the sales of commercial housing.
From a qualitative point of view, there is a clear correlation between the trend in the year-on-year data of residents' medium and long-term loans and the sales of commercial housing.
From a quantitative point of view, the year-on-year data of residents' medium and long-term loans and the sales of commercial housing and commercial housing have a high correlation coefficient.
The improvement of residents' medium and long-term loans confirmed the recovery of real estate sales in September.
To a certain extent, this shows that residents' enthusiasm for buying houses has been released, and it also shows that the real estate control measures have achieved results.
Of course, simply relying on residents to buy houses to expand market demand and activate consumption is obviously not enough.
In order to stimulate the residents' desire for entrepreneurship and investment enthusiasm, it is necessary to guide the residents through certain policies, so that more money in the hands of residents can be transferred to the investment industry and entrepreneurship, rather than focusing on the purchase of houses.
To this end, the government needs to formulate policies to encourage entrepreneurship, set up entrepreneurship support funds and venture capital funds, entrepreneurship training, skill development, and popularization of investment operation knowledge, so that the majority of residents have more investment channels, not only focusing on real estate. one direction.
Of course, in the face of higher-than-expected credit funds in September, we must pay more attention to and pay more attention to the structure of credit funds, especially whether the support for the real economy has reached the expected goal.
According to data provided by the central bank, as of the end of September, the balance of RMB loans issued by financial institutions to the real economy accounted for 61.5% of the stock of social financing in the same period, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year.
The demand of the real economy has entered a recovery channel, and a series of policies to stabilize growth and its successor policies are also releasing good results.
This is not only a concrete practice to enhance the adaptability, inclusiveness, and availability of financial services, but also a necessary prerequisite for the industry to move away from virtual reality and ensure stable development.
"Beijing Youth Daily" October 14, 2022 Edition A02