China News Service, October 14th (Xie Yiguan, a reporter from China-News Finance and Economics) On October 14th, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September. It is expected that the year-on-year increase in CPI in September may expand.

September CPI year-on-year increase may expand

　　Affected by the fall in the increase in food prices, in August, the CPI rose by 2.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.

How will the CPI increase in September?

CPI rise and fall chart.

Figure from the National Bureau of Statistics

　　According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in September, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 30.82 yuan/kg, an increase of 5.9% from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 54.6%; the average wholesale price of vegetables was 4.64 yuan/kg, an increase of 13% from the previous month and a year-on-year increase. 21.3%; the average wholesale price of eggs was 11.64 yuan/kg, up 9.1% month-on-month and 11.2% year-on-year.

　　"The fall in temperature combined with the Mid-Autumn Festival has further increased the demand for related food, the absolute price of pork has hit a new high in the year, and the price of eggs has continued to rise month-on-month." Industrial Securities said that although the cooling in late September improved the transportation of vegetables and vegetable prices fell to a certain extent, but in September Vegetable prices still recorded a large increase month-on-month.

From the comprehensive base, it is expected that the CPI in September may rise by 2.8% year-on-year.

　　Huachuang Securities analyst Zhang Yu believes that overall, food prices will continue to put upward pressure on the CPI.

On the other hand, the macro situation continued to suppress the upward slope of core inflation, and the adjustment of international oil prices led to a slight decline in domestic refined oil prices. It is expected that the CPI in September rose by 0.4% month-on-month, and rose to around 2.9% year-on-year.

　　According to the statistics of Flush iFinD, the average forecast of 19 institutions for the year-on-year increase of CPI in September is 2.99%.

If the above-mentioned average forecast values ​​are fulfilled, the year-on-year increase in CPI in September will expand, or hit a new high for the year.

Data map: Chongming, Shanghai, residents buy pork at the Miaozhen market.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Tian Yuhao

Pork prices do not have the basis for a sharp rise

　　Since the beginning of this year, the domestic pig price has experienced a process of first falling and then rising, and it is still in a fluctuating upward trend recently.

　　Recently, a reporter from Zhongxin Finance noticed in a supermarket in Xicheng District, Beijing that the price of pork front and back tips was 21.8 yuan per kilogram, which has been raised by 2 yuan recently, but the price of pork belly has not changed.

　　Will pork prices continue to rise, driving the CPI up?

　　"On the whole, pork prices may increase in the next stage, but there is no basis for a sharp increase, and there are still good conditions for price stability." Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the National Economic Comprehensive Statistics Department recently said.

　　Fu Linghui pointed out that from the perspective of supply, the current production capacity of live pigs is generally at a reasonable level. With the rise in market prices, the profitability of live pig farming is currently relatively good, and most farmers have better expectations, which is conducive to the overall stability of live pig supply.

From a policy perspective, while the price of live pigs is rising too fast, the government reserves frozen pork in a timely manner to guide the price of pork within a reasonable range.

　　According to the National Development and Reform Commission, according to preliminary statistics, in September, the state and local governments put a total of about 200,000 tons of government pork reserves, and the number of single-month releases reached a historical high. .

Data map Photo courtesy of Shenyang Municipal Bureau of Commerce

What is the trend of CPI in the later period?

　　According to the monitoring by the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of the country's 500 county fairs and collection points, the prices of live pig products, poultry products, beef and mutton, soybean meal and compound feed rose in the first week of October.

Among them, the national average price of pork was 37.80 yuan/kg, up 3.4% from the previous week and up 79.6% year-on-year; the national average price of eggs was 12.67 yuan/kg, up 0.6% from the previous week and up 18.0% year-on-year.

　　With some food prices rising, how will the CPI trend next?

　　Xu Dongshi, an analyst at Galaxy Securities, believes that considering the rebound in pork and vegetable prices in the second half of the year, it is expected that the year-on-year CPI growth rate in the fourth quarter may reach about 2.4%, and the annual CPI is expected to be around 2.2%.

　　"In the next year, core inflation is expected to remain low. Although under the influence of the base effect, the year-on-year CPI may hit 3% in some months, but there is no inflationary pressure as a whole." Zhang Yu said.

(Finish)