Securities Times reporter Wu Shaolong Wu Jiaming Zhuoyong

　　Li Mingzhu Chen Xiachang

　　Trainee reporter An Yufei

　　In the current context of stabilizing the economic market, consumption is an important driving force for economic growth.

The National Day holiday is the golden week of consumption.

During the National Day holiday, Securities Times reporters selected industries such as automobiles, real estate, and mobile phones to go to the front line to experience the consumption fever of the Golden Week.

Property market: fancy promotions continue

Homebuyer confidence boosted

　　The important node of the "Silver Ten" in the traditional real estate market is superimposed on the introduction of several favorable policies such as the reduction in the interest rate of the first personal housing provident fund loan, and real estate companies have accelerated their promotions.

According to the reporter's incomplete statistics, during this year's National Day Golden Week, many real estate companies have launched discounts with various projects across the country, and they have attracted home buyers by means of substantial discounts and gifts.

　　In the Shenzhen market, the new housing market is quite lively.

According to statistics from Shenzhen Shell Research Institute, as of September 28, 2022, the supply of new houses in Shenzhen had reached 10,693 units in the month, an increase of 115.7% month-on-month, the highest monthly supply during the year.

Among them, mid-to-late September has also become the main concentration period of residential supply, and many new projects have obtained evidence before the National Day to join the "customer grabbing" battle.

　　The reporter visited and found that many developers' sprint performance seems to be stronger than in previous years.

　　In a new house marketing center in Luohu District, the reporter saw a lot of people coming to see the house.

Several homebuyers who were viewing houses expressed similar views to reporters: "Although the measures to control the Shenzhen property market have not been significantly relaxed, under the stimulus of interest rate cuts and other policies, coupled with the introduction of large discounts by real estate companies, they will consider buying their own houses. Plan ahead."

　　Discounts are already the most commonly used method.

At present, all new housing projects on sale in Shenzhen have launched holiday promotions, among which business apartments have the largest discount.

A number of new residential projects have launched discounts ranging from 88% to 96%. There are also commercial apartments that offer special offers in the name of "workers' apartments". In Longhua District, there are even more commercial apartments that offer a discount equivalent to 50% off the record price.

Even in Nanshan District, where housing prices are higher in Shenzhen, there are business apartments that offer discounts to varying degrees.

In addition, some new housing projects that have not yet officially opened for sale began to be referred ahead of time, and real estate agents were overwhelmingly promoting and soliciting customers.

　　Kerui, a comprehensive real estate information service provider, believes that market confidence may gradually recover under the influence of the warm winds of the policy, and the short-term real estate market will gradually stabilize, but urban differentiation will intensify.

Markets such as Shanghai and Hangzhou are expected to continue, and transactions may remain high; the markets in first-tier and strong second-tier cities such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Suzhou may continue to recover. Even in cities such as Nanning, Shenyang, and Kunming, the market is expected to stabilize in the fourth quarter; The market in fourth-tier cities may find it difficult to bottom out. During the National Day holiday this year, the return of home buyers in third- and fourth-tier cities may be weaker than in previous years.

Automobile: The new energy vehicle market is hot

Annual sales expected to exceed 6.5 million units

　　This National Day new energy vehicle market is hot.

The reporter's on-site visit found that the sales of 4S stores of new energy vehicle companies during the National Day were gratifying.

An employee of a BYD 4S store in Longgang District, Shenzhen told reporters: "There is no auto show on National Day this year, so there are more customers coming to the store. Our more than 20 sales consultants are basically overwhelmed."

　　According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, domestic passenger vehicle production and sales reached 14.803 million and 14.655 million respectively from January to August, up 14.7% and 11.7% year-on-year, respectively, achieving the first double growth in production and sales since the second quarter.

And new energy vehicles have become the "engine" for growth. From January to August, the output was 3.97 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 times, and the sales volume was 3.86 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.1 times.

　　China Post Securities Research Report predicts that in 2022, the sales of new energy vehicles in China will be 6.51 million, a year-on-year increase of 85%, and the penetration rate will be 24%.

　　Mo Ke, chief analyst of True Lithium Research, also said that demand for new energy vehicles is expected to be stable, and most people believe that sales will reach 6.5 million this year.

　　According to the reporter's understanding, some car companies have launched preferential activities to welcome the National Day this year.

For example, Tesla has not only launched an insurance subsidy of 7,000 yuan, but also has a preferential rate loan program. When the loan is full, it can save more than 10,000 yuan in interest in 5 years.

Ideal car also has a 5,000 yuan matching fund for the new ideal L8 model.

However, most car companies, including BYD, have not launched preferential activities, and the "price reduction wave" in the new energy vehicle industry has not yet arrived.

Mobile phones: Popular models sell well

Manufacturers accelerate product iteration

　　Since the beginning of this year, the sales data of the mobile phone industry has not been satisfactory, but with the launch of new mobile phones of popular brands such as Huawei and Apple, the market has more expectations for the recovery of mobile phone sales.

On September 13, the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology released an analysis report on the operation of the domestic mobile phone market in July 2022.

The report shows that in July 2022, the domestic market shipped 19.908 million mobile phones, a year-on-year decrease of 30.6%.

From January to July 2022, the total mobile phone shipments in the domestic market totaled 156 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 23.0%.

　　On the National Day, the reporter came to Shenzhen Yitian Holiday Plaza, where a number of offline flagship sales stores of mobile phone brands are gathered.

In the store, it was crowded, and consumers gathered around the new models that had just been launched to experience various new functions in person.

And flagship models such as the just-launched Apple iPhone 14 Pro and Huawei Mate 50 Pro have become the focus of consumers' attention.

　　Apple staff told reporters that the popularity of the new models that have just been launched has diverged. Among them, the iPhone 14 Pro needs to make an appointment, and it will take 3 to 4 weeks to wait.

The situation is similar for the Huawei Mate 50 Pro, and the popular configuration models also require an appointment.

The reporter combed and found that many mobile phone manufacturers also took advantage of the National Day Golden Week to launch preferential measures such as trade-in subsidies, direct price cuts, interest-free installments, and gift earphones, hoping to boost sales.

　　For the mobile phone market in the fourth quarter, the market is generally optimistic.

On the one hand, the destocking of mobile phone manufacturers and electronic supply chain companies is coming to an end; on the other hand, with the improvement of the epidemic situation and the introduction of favorable policies by local governments to stimulate the economy, coupled with the release of new products such as Huawei and Apple in the fall, domestic mobile phone consumer demand is expected to recover.

In the context of optimistic market recovery, various mobile phone manufacturers have also increased their efforts in product upgrades and iterations.

Among them, folding screen mobile phones have become the main direction of attack.

The reporter learned that in the second half of the year, many manufacturers including Samsung, Xiaomi and Motorola have launched or planned to launch a variety of folding screen mobile phones.

Catering: Open new stores and serve new dishes

Community becomes the key layout direction

　　The National Day Golden Week slowly kicked off, and the catering industry has become a consumer business with "popular responsibility" and "a battleground for military strategists."

　　The reporter learned from field visits that "opening a new store" has become an unanimous choice for many restaurants.

There are two main ways to "open a new store", one is to open a new store, and the other is to introduce new dishes.

　　In the shopping center and the shops on the street, the reporter found that many well-known catering companies, such as Xiabuxiabu Hotpot, Hefu Lao Mee, McDonald's, Quanjude, etc., are actively preparing for new stores to open their doors during the National Day to seize the opportunity of the Golden Week of consumption.

Haidilao, Naixue's tea, Xibei, etc. prepared new menus early to launch new dishes.

A clerk said that in order to meet the peak consumption period of the National Day, these new dishes have been launched a month ago.

　　At present, the catering industry has become a "sharp weapon" for many shopping malls. The proportion of the catering industry in many shopping malls has gradually increased, forming a "three pillars" trend with shopping and entertainment formats. The proportion of catering in some shopping malls even exceeds half.

　　Walking out of the shopping center and entering the street-side restaurant, the reporter also discovered a new trend, that is, the branding and chaining of street-side restaurants is obvious, and the community has also become a feng shui treasure for many chain brands.

These brands have anywhere from hundreds to thousands of stores across the country. Some brands used to open more in shopping malls, but now they are beginning to enter the community.

　　In recent years, the hottest new consumption track - pre-made dishes, has also become a "sharp weapon" for major merchants to attract traffic online.

The reporter learned from some e-commerce platforms that during the National Day holiday, pre-made dishes have become the platform's traffic responsibility.

The person in charge of Dingdong Maicai's prefabricated food said that during the National Day, the platform increased the overall stocking of prefabricated food products, an increase of 2-3 times from the previous month.

Movie: Dark Horse Thrives

It will take time for the industry to recover

　　As one of the three major periods of the year at the movie box office, the number of films released on National Day this year has decreased compared to the past.

The small number of new films and the low enthusiasm of the audience for watching movies have led to the mediocre performance of this year's National Day files.

　　As of 23:00 on October 7, this year's National Day box office ended with 1.498 billion yuan, attracting a total of more than 36.14 million moviegoers and more than 2.71 million screenings.

Looking back at the same period in 2021 and 2020, the total box office of the National Day files was 4.388 billion yuan and 3.967 billion yuan, and the total number of moviegoers exceeded 90 million.

　　The four main themes of "Homecoming", "Ordinary Heroes", "Iron Will" and "Search and Rescue" became the protagonists of this year's National Day file.

The previously unpopular "Homecoming" became the biggest dark horse, and finally received a box office of 1.021 billion yuan.

This film, invested by listed companies such as Huace Film and Hengdian Film and Television, mainly tells the thrilling journey of an unarmed diplomat on the turbulent overseas battlefield with his own wisdom and courage to pave the way home for his compatriots.

And behind several other films, there are also leading companies in the industry such as Bona Films and Chinese Films.

　　Zheshang Securities believes that events such as the listing of Bona Films and the acquisition of Xingyi Cinema by Hengdian can confirm that the film and television industry has basically bottomed out after years of strong supervision and the clearing of the epidemic.

The State Film Administration's 100 million yuan movie viewing subsidy program has strongly promoted the recovery of the industry's demand side, which in turn catalyzed the release of high-quality production capacity from the supply side, helping the industry to enter the reversal channel.

China Merchants Securities believes that the adjustment of the film and television sector contains opportunities for individual stocks, and investors can wait for the performance of leading companies to reverse.

Gold Jewelry: Consumers

Return to rationality with businesses

　　"Shenzhen Shuibei set off a tide of buying gold" was once on the hot search.

During the National Day Golden Week, the reporter came to Shuibei Investigator again and found that both consumers and businesses were back to rationality.

　　The reporter saw in several gold and jewelry stores in Shuibei that compared with the gold rush set off by Shuibei in the past few months, there were significantly fewer consumers buying jewelry on the spot.

Some merchants believe that perhaps due to the impact of the epidemic, there are a lot fewer customers on site, but online sales are basically flat month-on-month.

　　"National Day is also a traditional wedding season. Many people get married together, which also drives the popularity of wedding gold jewelry." Ms. Chen, who runs a gold jewelry business in Shuibei Jinzhan Plaza, told reporters, "The price of gold has fallen slightly after the recent fall. Recovery, the gold price of jewelry on the 7th was 394 yuan per gram, and it fell to about 380 yuan per gram in the past few weeks. Since the beginning of this year, the business of gold jewelry has been good as a whole. Of course, due to the repeated impact of the epidemic, we will also make changes in the stocking volume. Adjust to respond to market changes.”

　　According to the report of the World Gold Council, global investors will face a rather complex market environment in the second half of 2022, and need to manage the challenges of multiple risks such as interest rate hikes, high inflation and geopolitics.

In the short term, the price of gold may be affected by multiple factors such as real interest rates, the pace of monetary policy tightening by global central banks and their effect on controlling inflation levels.

New tea drink: price cuts while busy

busy listing

　　"You can drink milk tea for 1 yuan. Don't miss it when you pass by." During the National Day Golden Week, many people stood at the entrance of the new tea brand Yihetang in a large supermarket in Longgang, Shenzhen.

　　The clerk of Yihetang told reporters that Yihetang cooperated with Kuaishou to launch preferential activities. New users can download the Kuaishou Express Edition with coupons, and buy the cheapest 6 yuan tea in the store, minus the 5 yuan discount, they can buy it for 1 yuan.

　　This phenomenon of drinking milk tea at an ultra-low price is not new. Since this year, it can be intuitively felt that the former leading brands of new tea drinks, Hi Tea and Nai Xue’s tea, have reduced their prices and are constantly seizing the market of low-end and medium-end brands.

And Mixue Bingcheng, where you can eat ice cream and drink milk tea for 3 yuan or 5 yuan, provides the ultimate cost-effectiveness. It seems that "price reduction" has become the key word for this year's new tea drinks.

　　If price reduction is a business strategy adjustment for new tea brands, then listing is the ultimate goal of each brand.

Recently, Michelle Bingcheng disclosed its prospectus, with a revenue of 10.35 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.845 billion yuan in 2021, proving the commercial value of the new tea drinking track sinking market.

The leading brands of new tea drinks, HEYTEA and Nai Xue’s tea are also constantly trying in the capital market. In 2021, Nai Xue’s tea will be successfully listed, and HEYTEA has also been repeatedly revealed to be planning to go public in Hong Kong, but it has not been possible so far. Companies such as Youchabaidao are also planning to IPO in Hong Kong.

Despite the twists and turns on the road to the capital market, new tea brands are still working hard.