China News Service, October 10th (Xie Yiguan, China-Singapore Finance and Economics reporter) Britain, France, Germany... A large-scale bird flu is sweeping across Europe and the United States.

　　Previously, due to factors such as inflation, geopolitics, and avian flu in the spring, chicken and egg prices in many countries have experienced a wave of rises.

Recently, there has been a sharp rise in cases of bird flu abroad. Will chicken and egg prices rise again?

Does it affect China?

Data map: Egg containers in a supermarket in San Mateo County, California.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Liu Guanguan

Largest bird flu outbreak in European history

　　"The geographic scope of the outbreak is unprecedented," the European Center for Disease Control and Prevention said in a message released on the 3rd.

The news also shows that the 2021-2022 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) season is the largest observed in Europe to date.

　　The latest figures from a joint report by the European Food Safety Authority, the European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention and the European Union Reference Laboratory show that a total of 2,467 outbreaks have occurred in poultry, with 48 million birds culled from affected sites, 187 detected in captivity and wild Birds detected 3573 HPAI events.

　　The report mentioned that the HPAI outbreaks observed in poultry from June to September increased fivefold compared with the infection sites observed during the same period in 2021, mainly on the Atlantic coast.

　　Affected by this, many countries took urgent measures.

The French Ministry of Agriculture and Food recently announced that the number of cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza in livestock and wildlife in mainland France has risen sharply in recent weeks, and in view of the unfavorable development of the situation, starting from October 2, the risk level will be changed from "low". The degree of monitoring and protection of poultry farms will be strengthened.

　　At the same time, more and more birds are being culled.

In the Netherlands, more than 3.7 million chickens, ducks and turkeys have been culled in the outbreak; in France, where duck farming is popular, the government said 16 million farmed birds were killed, according to a recent report by the British "Guardian". "destroy".

　　Not only in Europe, highly pathogenic avian influenza has also spread to the Americas, Africa and other regions.

　　According to a report by the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation on the 7th, the Canadian Food Inspection Agency said that more than 190,000 birds in Manitoba are estimated to be infected with highly pathogenic bird flu.

Infected birds were distributed across 16 establishments and were mostly confined to commercial poultry farms.

Next Thanksgiving, fresh turkey will be in short supply

　　The menacing highly pathogenic avian influenza has brought a "devastating" blow to poultry in many parts of the world, and has also tightened the supply of poultry meat.

　　The American Farm Bureau Federation announced that highly pathogenic avian influenza will have a significant impact on turkey production in 2022.

According to USDA's September 2022 Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook, turkey production in August 2022 was 450.6 million pounds, 16% lower than July and 9.4% lower than the same period in 2021.

Data map: Turkey.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Chen Mengtong

　　Helga Whedon, general manager of the Manitoba Turkey Producers Industry Group, said highly pathogenic avian influenza has affected the turkey industry across Canada, which means stores during Thanksgiving The supply of fresh turkey will be smaller than usual.

　　France is the largest egg producer in the EU.

Global egg production is expected to hit $1.5 billion in 2021 and is expected to decline for the first time this year as output in many countries declines, the French egg industry group CNPO said.

　　"We are in a situation that has never been seen before. In past crises we have often turned to imports, especially from the U.S., but this year it's been bad everywhere," said CNPO vice-chairman Loire Culombe.

　　Gregorio Santiago, president of the Philippine Egg Council Association, also recently warned of a possible shortage of eggs due to the global outbreak of bird flu.

　　"When there was a global outbreak of bird flu, it was difficult for us to source our breeders," Santiago said in a radio interview. The Philippines supplies broiler breeders and eggs from Spain and Belgium, both countries affected by bird flu. .

Turkey, egg prices rise amid bird flu

　　With inflation and rising feed costs, global poultry meat and egg prices have risen.

The highly pathogenic avian influenza has led to the culling of tens of millions of poultry in many parts of the world, exacerbating the trend of tight supply and further pushing up the prices of poultry meat and eggs.

　　The retail price of fresh boneless skinless turkey breast hit a record $6.70 a pound in September, up from $3.16 a pound in the same month in 2021, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. out 112%.

　　According to Bloomberg, the wholesale price of eggs was $3.62 a dozen as of Sept. 21, an all-time high, said John Brunquier, CEO of Egg Innovations, one of the U.S. free-range egg producers.

Data map: A customer passes by an egg container in a supermarket in San Mateo County, California, United States.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Liu Guanguan

　　"We've seen record prices for turkeys and eggs," said Bernt Nelson, an economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation. The flu, which gave us some trouble, is now starting to make a comeback in the fall."

Will my country's egg market be affected?

　　Will this wave of avian influenza spread abroad affect my country's poultry meat and egg markets?

　　"my country's eggs are basically not imported, and chicken imports are determined based on changes in international market prices." Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the reporter of Zhongxin Finance, "The outbreak of bird flu in Europe and the United States and other places will push up international poultry prices. my country's imports will decrease."

Data map: People buy eggs.

Photo by Qu Honglun

　　"In terms of price, since my country's poultry production and supply are fully guaranteed and do not rely on imports, even if foreign prices increase, it will not be transmitted to the domestic market." Li Guoxiang said.

　　A reporter from Zhongxin Finance and Economics noticed at an egg stall in a vegetable market in Xicheng District, Beijing that the price of bulk eggs was 6.8 yuan/catties, and the price has remained stable recently.

　　As for whether avian influenza will affect the import of grandparent chickens and breeding eggs in my country, in Li Guoxiang's view, "Grandparent chickens are mainly used for breeding. After avian influenza outbreaks abroad, you can choose to suspend imports." (End)