The Government assumes that the economy will no longer grow throughout this year

• Crisis Calviño lowers the GDP forecast for 2023 for the second time in less than three months and takes it to 2.1%

The Spanish economy

.

This is what the First Vice President of the Government and Minister of Economy, Nadia Calviño, assumed yesterday, pointing out that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will rise by 4.4% in 2022 and confirming that the Spanish economy, like the European economy, is undergoing a notable hiatus.

“It is a pure arithmetical calculation.

With the accumulated growth that we already have in the first and second quarters, for the year's GDP to remain at 4.4%, the rebound for the rest of the year has to

," Ángel Talavera, an economist, explains to this newspaper. head for Europe at Oxford Economics.

“With two quarters of data already known, you have a lot of information about what the growth of the entire year will be.

Therefore, any annual growth forecast already

about what is expected to happen in the second half of the year”, Talavera points out.

Calviño, who made the new estimate public before the meeting with the ministers of the euro zone in Luxembourg, stressed that the figure represents one tenth more than the previous estimate of 4.3% and that it is a "

" .

"The indicators and data we have through September could allow for an even larger upward revision," he added.

But the truth is that the macroeconomic framework on which the General State Budgets were based assumes that zero growth in the second half of the year.

And for next year, in addition, the Government estimates that the economy will advance by 2.1%, which is the

.

The initial figure was 3.5%, but in July the vice president lowered it to 2.7%, that is, by eight tenths.

If the additional six tenths from yesterday are added to this, the result is

.

Even greater was the reduction that was applied to this year's growth, which reached 7%.

All result, without a doubt, of the economic consequences that the invasion of Ukraine by Russia is having, and that is causing a global slowdown.

But, also, the lower recovery capacity of the Spanish economy, which has fallen behind the Eurozone, and the degree of absorption and development of European funds.

The Executive's forecasts for this year are in line with those of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which last week already pointed to 4.4% for this year.

For the next one, however, the body led by Mathias Cormann points to a 1.5% advance, significantly below the 2.1% of the Executive.

In these same estimates, the OECD predicts that

, an unequivocal sign of the complicated economic moment.

The intention of the Executive is to make known the aforementioned macroeconomic table as soon as possible, so much so that the objective is for

together with the Budget Bill, and all of this to be made public at the press conference later.

The Government wants to approve the accounts in a timely manner, and that forces the PGE to reach the Congress of Deputies as soon as possible.

To meet these times, PSOE and United We Can negotiate yesterday with the aim of "

" although from the purple formation they pressed stating that the increase in spending for Defense "cannot go".

In addition, it has focused especially on housing and, in this sense, they demand that the PSOE agree to approve the housing law with improvements, which has been stuck in Congress for eight months, reports Europa Press.

Also this week, the Bank of Spain will publish its new macroeconomic forecasts, and the BBVA Research study service will do the same, which will release its latest report next Thursday.

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