The compromised situation of
Credit Suisse
has activated alerts in the banking sector.
The entity is facing a perfect storm that has triggered the flight of investors and makes the market doubt its viability.
The bank's shares plummeted more than 8% at the start of the session on Monday and have accumulated a drop of almost 60% so far this year.
The alarms have been sounding for some time, but in recent days they have accelerated as a result of the behavior of CDS, a complex investment product that many will remember because they were the beginning of the financial collapse of 2008. In this case, the
costs of swaps
Credit Suisse's
credit default rates
(CDS) have reached
their highest level since 2008
in recent days
, "which sets off all the alarms in the financial system and hints at a possible bankruptcy," says Diego Morín, an analyst at IGMarkets.
However, it is only the tip of the iceberg of a situation in which the weakness of the investment banking business, the changes in the company's management (with three different CEOs in one year) and the extraordinary ones (among other things, the bank was one of the most affected by the
Archegos
case ).
According to the
Financial Times
, the entity's CEO, Ulrich Körner, sent a memorandum to the entire company last Friday to try to reassure the workforce about the bank's capital position and liquidity.
The newspaper also points out that several senior executives of the company have spent the weekend contacting large clients and investors to try to convey the same message of calm and confidence about the bank's liquidity and capital position.
With this panorama, in the opinion of Bankinter's Analysis department, "the market is concerned about the deterioration in
management metrics
(after the losses of 2021 it accumulates two negative quarters and the consensus estimates a loss of 1,650 million for 2022) and
by rumors about a possible capital increase
(dilution effect) to address a profound restructuring of the business" (investment banking, above all).
"Credit Suisse has more alternatives to finance the adjustment of its structure, but
nothing can be ruled out until the details
of the strategic plan scheduled for October 27 are known," the analysts point out.
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