Car companies battle "Golden Nine Silver Ten"! Can new energy vehicles go from "price increase" to "price decrease"?

　　Original title: Car companies battle "Golden Nine Silver Ten"!

New energy vehicle sales hit a new high, can it go from "price increase" to "price decrease"?

丨National Day Consumer Visit

　　"This 'October', our No. 1 reception is still quite full." When the reporter visited a 4S shop of a new car-making force, the salesperson told the reporter.

　　According to data from the China Automobile Association, the domestic production and sales of passenger vehicles from January to August were 14.803 million and 14.655 million, up 14.7% and 11.7% year-on-year, respectively, achieving the first double growth in production and sales since the second quarter.

And new energy vehicles have become a "growth engine", with production and sales increasing by more than double from January to August.

　　With the arrival of the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" in the auto sales season, can the overall recovery of the auto market continue?

There have been several rounds of "price increases" for new energy vehicles this year. Can car companies' promotions on "November" trigger a "price reduction"?

Offline car buying is hot, and new energy is "one ride to the dust"

　　"Compared with previous years (National Day), the sales of new energy vehicles are definitely better year by year. On October 1st, the store traffic is not bad. Today (October 2nd), because it just opened in the morning, it has not yet been opened. Too many people." On October 2, a staff member of a Tesla 4S store told reporters.

　　According to the reporter's field visit, the 4S stores of many new energy vehicle companies ushered in a "good start" during the National Day, and the sales on the first day of the National Day were gratifying.

An employee of a BYD 4S store in Longgang District, Shenzhen told reporters: "(No. 1) we have more than 20 sales during the day, and basically we can't get it. This year's National Day, because there is not an auto show like in previous years, offline to the store. There will be more people.”

　　The staff of an ideal car 4S store in Shenzhen also told reporters that there are more customers looking at the new car at present. The ideal L8 model is on tour. During the National Day, it is only available in the Shum Yip Shangcheng store. On the 1st of the month, the store was "full".

　　However, an employee of a 4S shop also told reporters: "I feel that there are not many people who come to see the car on the National Day this year, because many have driven home. Last year's National Day, I felt that there were not many people going home."

　　On the whole, the automobile market during the National Day was relatively hot, especially the performance of new energy vehicles.

This is also consistent with the overall domestic car sales data in the first few months of this year.

According to the data of the China Automobile Association, from January to August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in my country were 3.97 million and 3.86 million respectively, an increase of 1.2 times and 1.1 times year-on-year respectively.

　　Among them, the overall performance of the new car-making forces was outstanding, and the growth rate showed a divergent trend.

The data shows that from January to September this year, GAC Aian achieved delivery/sales of 182,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 132%; Nezha vehicles delivered/sales of 111,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 168%; Xiaopeng Motors achieved deliveries/sales About 98,600 units, an increase of 75% year-on-year; Li Auto achieved delivery/sales of 86,900 units, a year-on-year increase of 57.28%; NIO achieved sales of 82,400 units, an increase of only 24.2% At the end of September, NIO ET5 started delivery and many other positive factors, and sales growth is expected to improve.

Some car companies have preferential promotions, and the "price reduction tide" has not yet arrived

　　The reporter learned from offline stores that in order to impact sales, some car companies launched preferential promotions during the National Day. For example, Tesla launched an "insurance subsidy" of 7,000 yuan.

　　A staff member of a Tesla 4S store in Shenzhen told reporters: "Starting from October 1, if you buy a car and buy insurance from us, the price will be reduced by 7,000 yuan."

　　According to the activity pictures shown by the employee to reporters, all Model 3 and Model Y models ordered and delivered between October 1, 2022 and December 31, 2022 (only applicable to unlicensed vehicles), if the owner If you choose to purchase the corresponding auto insurance through Tesla's cooperative insurance agency, you can enjoy an insurance subsidy of 7,000 yuan.

　　The above-mentioned employee said: "The three-party insurance is not compulsory. You must buy compulsory traffic insurance and car damage insurance. As long as you buy these two, you can reduce 7,000 yuan. It is equivalent to the price of a three-party insurance at your own expense, 2,000 yuan. money."

　　In addition, for car purchases during the National Day, Tesla also provides a “preferential rate loan plan”: when buying all Model 3 and Model Y models, and borrowing from Tesla’s cooperative financial institutions, a 3-year annualized fee will be charged. The interest rate is as low as 3.5% (equivalent to an annualized interest rate of 6.6%), and the 5-year annualized rate is as low as 3.2% (equivalent to an annualized interest rate of 6%).

　　"From 4% in the previous five years to 3.2% in the current five years, that is to say, when the loan is full, more than 10,000 yuan in interest can be saved in five years." The Tesla 4S store staff introduced.

　　In addition to Tesla, Ideal also has promotions for different models.

The staff of Lili Auto 4S store told reporters that Lili ONE had a price reduction of 20,000 yuan before, and the newly released Lili L8 had a matching fund of 5,000 yuan.

The employee said: "If you want to change the color, change the wheels, add pedals, etc., you need to add about 10,000 yuan, and this matching fund can offset 5,000 yuan."

　　However, according to the reporter's field visit, many new energy vehicle companies such as BYD did not launch special promotions during the National Day.

A staff member of BYD's 4S store told reporters that the discount is a disguised price cut, which will also hurt the feelings of old car owners.

　　On the whole, the preferential margin of this National Day new energy vehicle brand is relatively limited.

Two years ago, during the National Day in 2020, Tesla announced a high-profile price cut of 30,000 yuan due to the use of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the new model, which set off a "price reduction" in the new energy vehicle industry.

Compared with two years ago, many new energy car companies seem to be more cautious about discounts this year.

The price of upstream materials is high, and there have been several rounds of "price increases" during the year

　　In fact, since the beginning of this year, due to the high prices of upstream raw materials, the new energy vehicle industry has set off several rounds of "price increases".

　　Wind data shows that the price of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate was 513,000 yuan / ton on September 30, a record high, which has risen nearly 12 times compared to 40,000 yuan / ton on September 30, 2020.

　　However, with the exception of lithium carbonate, the prices of other raw materials for new energy vehicles have fallen.

According to Wind data, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 300,000 yuan/ton on September 30, which was close to a "half cut" from the high price of 590,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year.

On September 30, the average price of cobalt in the Changjiang Nonferrous Metals market was 350,000 yuan / ton, which was nearly 40% lower than the price of 578,000 yuan / ton in early March this year.

　　The "heart" of new energy vehicles is the power battery, and the power battery has four key raw materials: positive electrode material, negative electrode material, electrolyte, and diaphragm.

The above-mentioned lithium carbonate and cobalt are the key raw materials of the positive electrode material (cobalt is used for the positive electrode material of the ternary lithium battery), and lithium hexafluorophosphate is the core solute of the electrolyte.

　　Although the prices of other raw materials are generally reduced, due to the high cost of lithium carbonate in power battery cells (currently about 15%), its price increase has made downstream cathode material manufacturers, power battery manufacturers and even new energy vehicle companies. been affected a lot.

　　In order to transfer the pressure of rising costs, many new energy vehicle companies have chosen to increase prices this year.

According to statistics from Zheshang Securities, since March this year, more than 30 auto brands have raised the prices of new energy vehicles, including BYD, Tesla, Xiaopeng, Nezha, Leapmotor, Celis, etc. From 1,000 yuan to more than 30,000 yuan.

　　Mo Ke, chief analyst of True Lithium Research, said in an interview with reporters: "With the increasingly smooth cost transmission mechanism, the concern of materials and batteries for the price increase of lithium carbonate will generally decrease, and car companies have become the bearers of resource price increases. , of course, ultimately the consumer pays the bill.”

　　The cost pressure brought about by the high price of upstream materials may be one of the reasons why many new energy vehicle brands did not launch preferential activities during the National Day.

　　On the whole, my country's new energy vehicle companies are still facing greater profit pressure, and "selling cars at a loss" has become a common phenomenon: in the first half of 2022, NIO's net loss exceeded 4.5 billion yuan, and Xiaopeng Motors' net loss exceeded 4.5 billion yuan. 4.4 billion yuan, and the net loss of ideal car exceeded 600 million yuan.

　　Is it a price increase to "return blood", or a price reduction promotion?

This is like a multiple-choice question of "profit or sales", which is placed in front of every new energy vehicle company that has not yet achieved profitability.