Our reporter Huang Junyi

  On September 30, the National Development and Reform Commission released the fourth batch of central pork reserves this year, and directed local governments to jointly release local government pork reserves.

After the continuous storage, how does the pig price trend?

In this regard, the reporter interviewed relevant experts.

  Why both storage and storage

  It is a distinctive feature of this year's regulation of pig prices to both purchase and stockpiles and release them within one year.

  Since February 28, the National Development and Reform Commission has carried out the purchase and storage of the central frozen pork reserve for many times in a row.

In September, the National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, will start to release government pork reserves in batches, and guide local governments to jointly release the reserves.

  "Regardless of whether the stockpiling or stockpiling, is to achieve market stability through regulatory means when the market mechanism fails, thereby ensuring the sustainable development of production." Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at the Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, told reporters.

  Affected by the high level of reproductive sows in the second quarter of last year, the price of pigs continued to drop to a low level in the first quarter of this year. From March to June, 13 consecutive rounds of frozen pork were purchased and stored, which effectively prevented the excessive drop in pig prices and stabilized production.

Similarly, due to the low price of pigs since the second half of last year, the reduction of sow production capacity, the decline in breeding rates, the seasonally low slaughtering rate of live pigs, and the superimposition of market sentiment and capital speculation, pig prices have rebounded rapidly since the end of June, with a year-on-year increase. larger.

According to monitoring, from September 19th to 23rd, the weekly average retail price of lean meat in 36 large and medium-sized cities increased by 30% compared with the same period last year. The second-level warning range for excessive rises determined by the "Plan".

In September, the demand for pork consumption began to enter the peak season. In addition, the "November" holiday is approaching, and the demand for important livelihood commodities such as pork is booming. The central and local levels of reserves are conducive to ensuring pork consumption demand before the festival and stabilizing pork prices.

  Multiple delivery guarantee requirements

  On August 29, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that the government's pork reserves would be released in batches from September, but the national pork price did not fall back.

Monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that the average price of pork in the national agricultural wholesale market on September 27 was 31.16 yuan/kg, still up 5.4% from 29.57 yuan/kg on August 29.

  "Release storage can effectively prevent pig prices from rising too fast." Zhu Zengyong analyzed.

The release of storage mainly occurs when the price of pigs has risen sharply, important festivals and short-term emergency supply guarantees.

For example, in 2007, the price of pork soared, and the state put more than 40,000 tons of central reserve meat, which effectively guaranteed market supply and maintained price stability.

On September 17, 2013, the eve of the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day, the state released 300 tons of central reserve meat.

In 2020, the state released the central reserve meat 38 times, with a total of 670,000 tons, setting a record for the highest amount and number of times in history.

In the first quarter of 2021, it will be launched 9 times, with a total of 210,000 tons.

  In terms of effect, the repeated investment has guaranteed the consumption demand of pork and restrained the rapid rise of pig prices.

Taking the release of storage in 2020 as an example, with the continuous release of reserved meat, although the price of pork is still at a high level, the weekly price has not exceeded the price level in the third week of February 2020, and has gradually fallen.

  Judging from the performance of hog futures, the impact of stockpiling on prices is very obvious.

On September 26, the main contract of hog futures 2301 on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell 1.91% to close at 21795 points.

Compared with the highest point of 23970 on August 29, the cumulative decline is 9.07%.

  Will it turn into a down cycle?

  Historically, futures will guide the spot. The current hog futures prices show signs of turning into a downward channel. Will pig prices start a downward cycle again?

  "The price of pigs may fluctuate in a narrow range in the future. From the perspective of the cost and income of live pig breeding, the average total cost of the industry is about 17 yuan/kg. According to the latest live pig price, a 120 kg fat pig is sold, and the profitability level Between 600 yuan and 800 yuan, both self-bred and purchased piglets are profitable. If the current price level is maintained, it is expected that the annual average profit will return to the normal range of about 200 yuan." Zhu Zengyong said.

  According to the growth law of live pigs, generally live pigs are put on the market for 6 months after feeding.

According to monitoring, in August, the inventory of medium and large pigs in large-scale pig farms across the country increased by 6.2% year-on-year. Recently, "secondary fattening" large fat pigs entered the market, and the live weight of the slaughter is also increasing. Holiday pork supplies will continue to increase.

With the rebound of pig prices, the national stock of fertile sows has stopped falling and rebounded since May. As of August, the national stock of fertile sows has increased slightly month-on-month for four consecutive months. The second quarter began to increase the number of live pigs, indicating that the four Quarterly hog production will continue to grow.

  "Recently, the price of live pigs purchased by slaughterhouses is relatively high, but the prices cannot go up after they arrive in the market. When slaughterhouses and slicers are unable to make money, the upward trend in pork prices will be curbed." Beijing Xinfa Liu Tong, manager of the statistics department of the wholesale market of agricultural and sideline products, said.

  Relevant persons from the National Development and Reform Commission said that at present, the domestic production capacity of live pigs is generally reasonable and sufficient, and the number of breeding sows, newborn piglets, and fattening pigs are all on the rise.

In the next step, the National Development and Reform Commission will continue to invest in the central pork reserve with relevant departments in light of the market situation, and increase the distribution if necessary.

  Looking forward to the market outlook, Zhu Zengyong said that since August, the slaughtering volume of live pigs has increased month-on-month, while pork imports have increased month-on-month since July, and the supply of live pigs will gradually increase.

In the fourth quarter, the supply of pork is abundant, and the fundamentals of supply and demand will improve significantly.

At the same time, in June and July, the number of new-born piglets in large-scale pig farms across the country increased by 8.1% and 7.5% year-on-year respectively.

This indicates that the pork market will have a good supply base during the New Year's Day and Spring Festival. At that time, both pork supply and demand will enter the peak season, and the price may rise due to the consumption of holidays, but the increase will not be too large.