(Economic Observation) Is it possible to expect the "Silver Ten" of China's property market with three major policies in two days?

  China News Agency, Beijing, October 1st, question: Can three major policies in two days be issued in succession for the "Silver Ten" of China's property market?

  China News Agency reporter Pang Wuji

  In less than two days, the Chinese official issued three blockbuster property market support policies.

Before the "November" holiday, the "lower limit of commercial loan interest rate for the first home" for buyers who just needed it, the interest rate for the first home provident fund loan was lowered, and the "tax rebate" policy for improving home buyers was released one after another.

  The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued a new policy on September 30, stating that from October 1, 2022 to December 31, 2023, taxpayers who sell their own housing and repurchase housing in the market within 1 year after the current housing is sold. , the individual income tax that has been paid for the sale of the existing house will be refunded.

  On the same day, the central bank announced that it has decided to reduce the loan interest rate of the first personal housing provident fund by 0.15 percentage points from October 1, 2022.

Chen Wenjing, market research director of the Index Division of the China Index Academy, pointed out that this is the first time in seven years that the central bank has lowered the loan interest rate of the provident fund.

  On the evening of September 29, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a notice that some cities may relax the lower limit of the interest rate of commercial personal housing loans for the first set of housing in stages.

According to agency statistics, there are more than 20 eligible cities.

"House Change Tax Rebates" Benefit Improved Home Buyers

  Different from the other two policy interest rate adjustments that are mainly aimed at rigid needs, the "tax rebate for house change" benefits buyers who are improving.

  Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, pointed out that the current individual tax policies for second-hand housing implemented in different parts of China are not the same.

Most cities levy 1%-2% of the house transaction value as a transaction tax. There are also a few cities such as Beijing. If the house sold does not meet the condition of "five years and the only house for the family", the purchase price of the house will be calculated according to the purchase price of the house. 20% of the difference when selling is taxed.

The only house in the family held for more than 5 years is exempt from personal income tax.

  Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of the Shell Research Institute, said that the tax rebate policy will reduce the tax burden of the house-changing group. Re-purchase houses during the year, which will promote the improvement demand to speed up the process of house replacement, and has a positive effect on promoting market transactions.

  Zhang Dawei said that for most urban homebuyers, after the implementation of the "exchange house tax rebate" policy, trading a suite can save 30,000 yuan (RMB, the same below) to 50,000 yuan in taxes, but in some cities such as Beijing It is possible to save hundreds of thousands of yuan, which will help increase the liquidity of taxable housing.

  This policy makes it clear that if the amount of the newly purchased house is greater than or equal to the transfer amount of the existing house, all the personal income tax paid will be refunded.

For example, Wang Xiaoqiang, chief analyst of Zhuge Housing Data Research Center, said that according to Beijing's regulations, for houses that are not "full five only", if the original value of the purchase is 1 million yuan, and the online signature value is 2 million yuan at the time of sale, you need to pay The personal income tax is 200,000 yuan.

According to the new policy, if the seller buys a new house within one year, and the amount of the new house is greater than or equal to 2 million yuan, the personal income tax of 200,000 yuan will be refunded in full.

Policies are frequently issued, can the "Silver Ten" of the property market be expected?

  Industry insiders believe that the intensive introduction of three major policies within two days will inject vitality into the property market in the traditional peak season "Silver Ten" and even in the fourth quarter.

  Chen Wenjing said that the central bank has introduced policies to reduce the interest rate of first home loans for two consecutive days, and commercial loans and provident fund loans have been promoted in an all-round way, which is expected to effectively stimulate the release of rigid housing demand.

The release of heavy positives one after another is conducive to stabilizing the market and stabilizing expectations.

The "Silver Ten" has arrived. Driven by more and stronger policies, the market will gradually enter the stage of stabilization and recovery.

  Pang Ming, Chief Economist and Director of Research at Jones Lang LaSalle Greater China, believes that the reduction in the loan interest rate of the first personal housing provident fund will help better match the downward trend of housing-related commercial mortgage loan interest rates and is also conducive to It is better to drive down the interest rate of existing mortgages with the decline of incremental mortgage interest rates.

  He believes that the "tax rebate for house replacement" with a term of more than one year, the "lower limit of the first home loan interest rate relaxation" with a term of three months, and the longer-term provident fund interest rate cut and other policies will form a short, medium and long-term policy combination, which will promote home purchases. recovery of reasonable housing needs.

  Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Urban Planning Institute, believes that the "tax rebate" policy is mainly aimed at the poor circulation of the real estate market, which directly points to the pain points and blocking points of the current real estate market.

Opening up the house exchange chain is an important part of reducing real estate transaction costs and smoothing the circulation of the real estate market.

This is in line with the policies that have recently been introduced in many places to support "transfer of accounts with mortgage" and "serial order" transactions.

  Wang Xiaoqiang predicts that, driven by various policies, property market transactions will further pick up in October, and the fourth quarter is expected to be the peak of China's property market transactions this year.