On the penultimate trading day before the National Day holiday, A-shares experienced another major adjustment.
On September 28, the three major A-share indexes all fell by more than 1%.
Among them, the Shanghai Composite Index closed down 1.58%, falling below the 3050 mark, approaching 3000 points.
The Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index both fell by more than 2%, down 2.46% and 2.57% respectively.
Under the continued weak performance, market participants pointed out that the characteristics of A-shares in the bottom area have become more obvious.
At the same time, after the concentrated release of pessimistic expectations in the third quarter, with the gradual recovery of the domestic economy in the fourth quarter, the allocation of A shares is gradually becoming more cost-effective, and the layout window is open.
Among them, Zhang Qiyao, chief strategist of Guosheng Securities, pointed out that in terms of 11 indicators such as comprehensive valuation, risk premium, repurchase scale, turnover, net break rate, fund issuance and positions, most indicators have reached or are close to the historical market bottom. level, indicating that the current market is already in the bottom area, and in terms of sentiment and cost performance, it is close to the "market bottom" level in April this year.
Multiple factors lead to adjustments across the board
As of the close on September 28, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.58% to 3,045.07 points; the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 2.07% to 956.19 points; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.46% to 10,899.7 points; the ChiNext Index fell 2.57% to 10,899.7 points. 2313.77 points.
On the disk, the market fell sharply on Wednesday.
Among them, in terms of individual stocks, there were as many as 4,445 stocks that fell in the two cities.
The number of stocks that closed up was less than 500, only 431.
In terms of sectors, under the first-level industry classification of Shenwan, among the 31 sub-sectors, 30 sectors closed in green, and only the banking sector achieved a slight increase.
At the same time, 17 sectors fell by more than 2%, 8 sectors fell by more than 3%, and the non-ferrous metal sector fell by more than 5%.
For the market correction across the board, analysts said, it was mainly due to factors such as risk aversion and the appreciation of the US dollar.
"At present, overseas geopolitical conflicts are likely to further intensify. As the National Day holiday is approaching, many investors will choose to light their warehouses for the holidays in order to avoid uncertain risks." The chief analyst of a securities firm told The Paper.
According to CCTV news, on September 28, local time, the EU's special representative for foreign affairs and security affairs, Borrell, issued a written statement, saying that the EU is seriously concerned about the destruction of the "Nord Stream" natural gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea, and believes that the information currently available proves that the pipeline is a If it is deliberately sabotaged, all parties involved will be adversely affected as a result.
In terms of exchange rates, the chief analyst of the above-mentioned brokerage further pointed out that under the continuous interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, many central banks around the world also issued interest rate hike announcements.
The tightening of liquidity will have an impact on the global stock market, and the A-share market is no exception, which will be under pressure to a certain extent.
The Zhongyuan Securities Research Report also pointed out that due to the strong appreciation of the US dollar again, the currencies in the Asia-Pacific region continued to depreciate, triggering a sharp drop across the Asia-Pacific market.
On September 28, the spot exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.2458 at 16:30, down 878 basis points from the previous trading day. This closing price hit a new low since mid-January 2008.
After entering the night trading hours, the spot exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar further fell below the 7.25 mark.
However, the People's Bank of China issued a press release at 17:30 on September 28, stating that on September 27, 2022, a video conference on the self-discipline mechanism of the national foreign exchange market will be held.
Liu Guoqiang, deputy governor of the central bank and chairman of the China Foreign Exchange Market Steering Committee (CFXC), attended and delivered a speech.
The meeting emphasized that since the beginning of this year, the RMB exchange rate has remained basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level.
The foreign exchange market is at stake, and maintaining stability is the first priority.
The RMB exchange rate remains basically stable and has a solid foundation.
It must be recognized that the point of the exchange rate is unpredictable, and two-way floating is the norm. Do not bet on the unilateral appreciation or depreciation of the RMB exchange rate.
After the news was issued, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar rose, and the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar once regained the 7.24 mark in both the onshore and offshore markets.
The characteristics of the bottom area are obvious, the layout window is opening
Looking forward to the future, a number of institutions said that under the continuous adjustment, the characteristics of A-shares currently in the bottom area have become more obvious.
Zhang Qiyao believes that at present, most of the indicators of A-shares have reached or are close to the historical market bottom level, so the current market is already in the bottom area, and it is also close to the "market bottom" level in April this year in terms of sentiment and cost performance.
Specifically, Zhang Qiyao pointed out that the current A-share valuation, risk premium, stock-bond yield difference, repurchase scale, and net increase or decrease of industrial capital have approached or even exceeded April this year or other market rounds in history. bottom level.
"At the same time, in terms of credit impulse, decline rate and speed, turnover, net break rate and private equity positions, although they have not yet fully reached the historical market bottom level, they are gradually approaching the market bottom." Zhang Qiyao further pointed out.
Zhang Qiyao also emphasized that although the issue scale of partial equity funds has shown growth within the range, it has gradually slowed down marginally in the past two months.
At the same time, the stock positions of public funds are still rising against the trend and are still at a historically high level.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, also pointed out that from the current market performance, the characteristics of the market at a low level are still relatively obvious.
"In addition to the relatively sluggish market turnover and the historically low valuations of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, there are currently signs of a recovery in the domestic economy. The economy is expected to recover gradually in the fourth quarter, and the economic recovery is an important support for the strength of the stock market. " Yang Delong said.
Looking forward to the market outlook, the Shanxi Securities Research Report pointed out that since July, the A-shares have fluctuated downward and have given back half of their gains. The proportion of turnover and index valuation are both at historical lows, and they have begun to gradually highlight the cost-effectiveness advantage of allocation.
"Looking back, although overseas uncertainties and repeated interest rate hike expectations may still impact market sentiment again. But in general, after the concentrated release of pessimistic expectations in the third quarter, as the domestic economic fundamentals in the fourth quarter verified signs of recovery, The layout window of A shares is opening." Shanxi Securities further pointed out.
Guotai Junan Securities also believes that the current A-share weighted indices have entered the stage of "bottom-building", thus providing a certain safety pad for the market.
With the gradual increase in the follow-up stable growth policy, in the long run, the economic momentum will be gradually restored, and the probability of economic recovery is increasing.
Considering the current market adjustment cycle, magnitude and current valuation level, the current market already has certain layout opportunities.
In terms of configuration, Shanxi Securities believes that in the next step, the structural transformation is expected to continue the track of high prosperity logic, and industries with more flexibility in fundamental repair are expected to achieve better performance.