The price of debt multiplies by seven in one year and breaks 2014 records only behind Greece and Italy

The Palazzo Mezzanotte, headquarters of the Milan Stock Exchange, dominated the Piazza degli Affari this Tuesday, one more day, after celebrating 90 years in 2022 since its inauguration in the presence of Benito Mussolini himself.

The Milanese City Council maintains the disconcerting monument of an index finger pointing upwards in front of the facade and everything indicates that this building, protagonist of the tumultuous history of the Italian and European economy in recent decades, will also be so in the uncertain new stage ahead.

On the one hand, there is the unknown to what extent the winner of the elections,

, will moderate .

Leaders of the main groups of the Italian Stock Market are betting privately that the leader of the Brothers of Italy will lower her populism and be pragmatic, but a period of vigilance has begun that is coupled with a pessimistic astral crossover of interest rate hikes, crisis energy and an unbelievable British fiscal policy that is penalizing in particular the most indebted countries in the south and not only Italy.

who are forced to pay more interest on their bonds to place debt.

Portugal has enough debt (127%) to displace Spain from this podium.

However, its greater control of the deficit and stability generates more confidence and its bond trades at 3.2% and

The ten-year Spanish bond exceeded 3.4% on Tuesday, the highest level since March 2014 when the country came out of recession.

This new ceiling multiplies by seven the 0.46% interest that was enough to offer the coalition government a year ago when it had the European Central Bank (ECB) as a buyer.

As the ECB weakened this shield to focus on inflation, bond yields have not stopped growing, but these days they exceed all the funds' initial expectations.

and there is no storm like in the worst moments of 2012, but it is a notable rise in price.

The escalation is of such magnitude that the ten-year bond

just a week ago, on September 20.

This general secretariat of the Ministry of Economic Affairs has been accelerating emissions to reach the end of the year with the bulk already issued.

Its needs are 237,000 million throughout 2022 and, according to its latest statement,

In the case of Greece, it has to offer 4.8% interest while Italy approaches that rescued country above 4.7%.

, a threshold traditionally considered dangerous in central banks.

That of Spain is well below, but again exceeds 120 basis points, twice as much as at the beginning of the year.

«In the previous crisis, more attention had to be paid to the risk premium, but now there are not as many differences as then.

, because the cost of financing one and the other is becoming more expensive, ”says a source from the ECB.

In her speech last Monday in the European Parliament, the president of the ECB,

, called on the most indebted governments to put the handbrake on spending to combat inflation.

“It is essential that the fiscal support used to protect households from the impact of rising prices is temporary and selective.

This limits the risk of fueling inflationary pressures, thus also facilitating the task of monetary policy in guaranteeing price stability and helping to preserve debt sustainability.

Asked if the new extra debt purchase program will apply to Italy if the Meloni government launches to increase the deficit, Lagarde pointed out that this shield

"We do not foresee any imminent budgetary risk due to the transition to the new government in Italy," says the rating agency S&P, but its analysts warn of the importance of Meloni following the line of his predecessor: "

of the Recovery Plan that will allow the distribution of the rest of the European funds ».

"During the election campaign, the leader of the Brothers of Italy indicated her interest in reviewing the commitments," but "from our point of view, any reopening would cause a delay and increase uncertainty about the economic outlook."

"Who will be the new Minister of the Economy of Italy will be fundamental," agree the managers of the main funds.

The current one,

, is reluctant to take the cup, despite the fact that he would like the outgoing prime minister,

, to take it .

The Italian stock market fell 1.15% this Tuesday while waiting for how the new government fits the pieces in an increasingly complex international environment.

The Confindustria employers' association has not issued any statement on the electoral result, but its president,

, offered his collaboration last week to the government that results from the polls.

The businessman Bonomi has been ruled out to form part of a Meloni government that incorporates technicians, but the former president of the employers' association,

, does enter the pools.

"Meloni's victory deserves concern, but not panic," headlines its

editorial .

The British newspaper believes that the economic situation will force the new government to avoid measures that disconcert investors.

Draghi himself and his Economy Minister plan to present a new macroeconomic picture this week that cuts 2023 growth to below 1%.

Such a rickety economic evolution makes it difficult to manage a 150% debt.

And also, 117% like Spain.

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