The rate hikes by the American Federal Reserve have led to a remarkable situation: the so-called yield curve of American government bonds has been inverted for some time, and the situation has now worsened.
This means that short-term rates are higher than long-term rates;
the yield on two-year government bonds was 4.1 percent on Friday, compared to just 3.7 percent on ten-year bonds.
In Germany things are not quite there yet, but the development has also been going in this direction in recent weeks.
Superficially, this is a consequence of policy rate hikes having a greater impact on short-term rates than on long-term rates.
But a yield curve that has inverted as much as in the United States is also seen as a sign of an impending recession.
According to a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, every economic downturn in America since 1955 has been preceded by an inverted yield curve.
This also gives rise to fears of difficult times.