Ouyang Jianhuan Peng Yang
A reporter from China Securities Journal recently investigated and learned that while large state-owned banks, some joint-stock banks and city commercial banks have lowered the RMB deposit interest rate, the US dollar deposit interest rate has continued to rise.
A number of bank wealth management managers said that the number of customers inquiring about US dollar deposit products has increased recently.
Expert analysis shows that if you currently hold U.S. dollars, you need to bear the potential risk of exchange rate fluctuations.
If foreign exchange is temporarily purchased and used to invest in foreign currency assets, the cost of purchasing foreign exchange will also be borne, which may not be cost-effective in the aggregate.
Although the US dollar deposit rate is higher, the follow-up space is limited.
In addition, the US dollar exchange rate has always been volatile, and it is currently at a high level, and the trend is uncertain.
The RMB exchange rate does not have the basis for continuous depreciation.
interest rate hike
"Recently, the U.S. dollar index has continued to rise, and more customers have inquired about U.S. dollar deposit products," said Wang Yufu, a wealth management manager at a joint-stock bank.
In recent months, due to factors such as interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, the interest rates of U.S. dollar deposit products of domestic commercial banks have been continuously raised.
The interest rate of one-year dollar deposit products of some banks has exceeded 3%. At this time last year, the interest rate of many similar products was still around 1%.
Taking a U.S. dollar deposit product of China Zheshang Bank as an example, the bank's wealth management manager Li Xiaohe introduced that the current deposit for this product is 10,000 U.S. dollars, and the annual interest rates of the 1-month, 3-month, 6-month and 1-year products are 2.21% and 2.21% respectively. 2.69%, 3.46%, 3.79%.
"Since May this year, the product rate has been raised several times in a row."
A reporter from China Securities Journal opened the Mobile Banking APP of Bank of Jiangsu on September 22, and found that the two dollar deposit products recommended by the opening advertisement have a term of one year. The corresponding annual interest rates are 3.40% and 3.60% respectively.
On the Shanghai Pudong Development Bank APP, the reporter noticed that a certain US dollar deposit product is selling well, and the annual interest rate of the one-year product is 3.00%.
There are also banks whose interest rates on dollar deposit products fluctuate on a weekly basis.
Zhang Jing, wealth management manager of Bank of Ningbo's Beijing business department, said that the annual interest rate of US dollar deposit products this week has been raised compared with last week.
Subject to the risk of exchange rate fluctuations
From the perspective of interest income, industry insiders believe that the current US dollar deposit products are indeed more attractive than before when the interest rate of domestic US dollar deposit products is rising.
However, since it is a foreign currency product, it is necessary to consider the potential risk of exchange rate fluctuations when investing.
"If you don't hold foreign currency and you just temporarily buy foreign exchange to buy U.S. dollar deposits, it will not be so cost-effective." A wealth management manager of a joint-stock bank said that the current U.S. dollar exchange rate is relatively high, and the term of U.S. dollar time deposit products is generally longer. Exchange rate fluctuation risk.
Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of China Everbright Bank, said that for ordinary investors, investing in US dollar products should not only focus on interest rates, but also the risk of US dollar exchange rate fluctuations.
At present, the US dollar exchange rate trend is subject to great volatility and uncertainty.
The U.S. dollar index has risen more than 20% since 2021 and is now at a more than 20-year high above 110.
Taking into account factors such as slowing US economic growth and accelerated interest rate hikes by other overseas economies, some institutions believe that the room for continued appreciation of the US dollar exchange rate may be limited in the future, and there may be large fluctuations.
Zhao Qingming, vice president of the China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute, said that the US dollar index has recently exceeded 110 for many times, refreshing a 20-year high, and the room for further gains in the US dollar index is very limited.
Wang Youxin, a senior researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, reminded that the Fed is in the second half of raising interest rates, and the US dollar index is already at a high position. Later, as the Fed slows down the pace of interest rate hikes, the US dollar index may rise and fall.
The trend of the US dollar index showed high volatility.
According to statistics, from January 2020 to August 2022, the U.S. dollar index rose for 21 months and fell for 11 months, and 9 of them had a monthly rise or fall of more than 2%.
Historically, the U.S. dollar index has repeatedly experienced a sharp rise and then a sharp fall.
According to the Donghai Futures Research Report, from 2000 to 2002, the U.S. dollar index once exceeded 110, but then the global macro situation changed greatly. The U.S. dollar index began to trend down from March 2002, and fell to around 71 at the lowest point, and went down. The process takes longer.
In addition, industry insiders said that certain costs will also be incurred in the process of foreign exchange settlement and purchase.
Taking Shanghai Pudong Development Bank as an example, according to the bank's latest foreign exchange price on September 23, it costs about 71,365 yuan to buy 10,000 US dollars from the bank, but if it is to sell 10,000 US dollars to the bank, it can only be exchanged for about 71,065 yuan in RMB. There is a price difference of 300 yuan in the middle.
If you sell 10,000 US dollars in cash to a bank, you can only get 70,502 yuan, and the price difference even exceeds 800 yuan.
"This spread can understand the fees paid to banks, which are also costs."
There is no basis for continuous depreciation of the RMB exchange rate
Industry insiders said that the two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate has become normalized, and it is not advisable to bet on a unilateral depreciation of the exchange rate to buy US dollar assets.
According to market analysis, the RMB exchange rate has not changed the trend of two-way fluctuations recently.
Judging from the situation since the beginning of this year, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar is still rising and falling.
The renminbi remained relatively stable against major non-dollar currencies.
"From the perspective of my country's economic fundamentals, the GDP growth rate in the third quarter may be significantly higher than that in the second quarter. At the same time, prices are moderate and controllable, and the balance of payments is in good condition, especially the basic items of the balance of payments such as current account and direct investment remain relatively high. The surplus lays the foundation for the stability of the RMB exchange rate and the smooth operation of the foreign exchange market," said Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank.
Guan Tao, global chief economist of BOC Securities, believes that the economic data in August shows that my country's economy continues to recover and develop, and major indicators have shown positive changes.
It is expected that with the gradual implementation of a package of stabilizing growth policies and their successor policies, the domestic economic recovery momentum will be consolidated and strengthened, and the RMB exchange rate trend will eventually return to the trend dominated by fundamentals, which more reflects the stable and sound fundamentals of my country's economy. situation.
In addition, Zhou Maohua said that if cross-border investment is not involved, ordinary investors will be less affected by short-term fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate. It is recommended to adjust investment strategies and portfolios according to the domestic macroeconomic and policy environment.
"At present, the focus of domestic macroeconomic policies is still toward steady growth, and market liquidity is reasonably sufficient. Investors should adjust their income expectations in a timely manner during special periods, and at the same time, make diversified investments according to their own risk preferences."