Our reporter Wang Lixin
Ten years is just a moment in the long history, but for the Chinese real estate industry, it can be said that "it is the right time to forge ahead".
During this period, the industry has experienced explosive growth, and it has also shifted from "comprehensive development" to "key development". Now it has entered a period of rational maturity and is moving towards a stage of high-quality development.
In the past ten years, the total sales area of commercial residential buildings nationwide was 13.234 billion square meters, 2.2 times that of the previous decade.
In the past decade, the performance of high-quality leading real estate companies in the capital market has been remarkable. Taking Vanke's sales and market value in 2021 as an example, they will be 627.78 billion yuan and 228.1 billion yuan respectively, 4.4 times and 2 times that of 2012. .
In the past ten years, the housing security system has been continuously improved. A total of 14.8 trillion yuan has been invested in the construction of more than 59 million affordable housing and shantytown renovation and resettlement housing.
In 1978, the idea of the "housing commercialization" model was put forward; since then, after more than 40 years of adjustment, the two major housing supply systems have been further improved, and the scale of housing supply has continued to increase; until 2020, the total construction area of household housing in the country has exceeded 50 billion square meters m; Nowadays, the people's demand for housing has changed from "is there" to "is it good or not", and the real estate industry is also standing at the critical point of the transformation of new and old development kinetic energy. The development path that homebuyers conspire to conspire.
Adhere to the positioning of "housing and not speculating"
Promoting high-quality "living and living"
The housing issue is related to people's livelihood and well-being.
Since the Central Economic Work Conference in 2016 first proposed "housing and not speculating", this position has never been shaken in the past six years.
In order to crack down on speculation in the real estate sector, under the “city-specific policies”, the regulatory policies have become more refined and precise, helping the “dream of living in peace” to become a reality.
"The 2020 census data shows that my country's households have 1.2 houses per capita, and the goal of 'one room per capita' has been achieved on the whole." Li Wenjie, president of the Shell Research Institute, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that "there have been After the "housing", people pay more attention to whether they can "live in a good house", so that the living standards of living and economic and social development can be matched, and the happiness of living can be improved. .
Under the guidance of this goal, in the past ten years, relevant departments have accelerated the improvement of the housing system with multi-subject supply, multi-channel guarantee, and simultaneous rent and purchase.
On September 14, the Propaganda Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a series of press conferences on the theme of "This Ten Years in China". Jiang Wanrong, Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said, "We emphasize the need to improve 'two systems', one is the housing market system, the other is housing Security System."
"After the diversified housing needs of new citizens are met, it will help stimulate the vitality of the consumer market and the real economy." Zhang Renyuan, executive director of Tongce Research Institute, told the Securities Daily reporter that with the continuous improvement of the two major housing supply systems, The development quality of "integration of industry and city" and the life of "job-housing balance" in big cities have been further optimized.
Relevant goals have been clarified. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, 40 key cities will build and raise 6.5 million units (rooms) of affordable rental housing, which can solve the housing difficulties of nearly 20 million new citizens and young people.
"Currently, we mainly solve the problem of 'job-housing balance' among young people in big cities through various types of affordable housing and increasing the supply of rental housing." Li Wenjie said that he suggested that in the future, the effective rental supply can be increased by further revitalizing the existing housing stock. On the one hand, encouraging Individual owners will rent their idle properties into the market; on the other hand, owners are encouraged to hand over their properties to professional leasing agencies for hosting.
Under the new model of housing development, leasing is entering a certain development space.
From solving the "housing and housing" in the first half to meeting the "job-housing balance" and high-quality housing needs of new citizens and young people in the second half, standing at the stage of demand change, aiming to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate industry and a virtuous circle , as one of the main players involved in the development of the industry, the real estate developer took the lead in embarking on the road of transformation.
Say goodbye to the large-scale development stage
Entering the era of professional development
In addition to adjustments in individual years, the "both in volume and price" has been a major feature of China's property market over the years.
In 2012, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide was 1.113 billion square meters, and the sales amount was 6.45 trillion yuan. In 2021, it will increase to 1.794 billion square meters and 18.2 trillion yuan respectively.
During this period, with the help of demographic dividends and financial dividends, developers entered the capital market to expand shares and finance, and pursued rapid turnover and scale.
"In the last decade, real estate was in a period of rapid growth. Although there were short-term fluctuations in the middle, it was generally a spiral upward process. The real turning point appeared in 2020." At the performance briefing meeting, Midea Real Estate Chairman, Executive Director and CEO President Hao Hengle told the "Securities Daily" reporter.
The management of Seazen Holdings told the "Securities Daily" reporter that major real estate companies no longer blindly pursue high leverage, high turnover, and scale expansion, but instead seek high-quality development based on business model reconstruction and financial stability.
"As the housing demand structure changes, the industry development model will inevitably transform." Li Wenjie said that the current demand changes are driving supply changes, and the industry and market players must break the mindset and path dependence to achieve sustainable development.
"This year is a year for the transformation of the old and new models of the real estate industry. Many private real estate companies have slowed down and fully realized that they need to return to rationality." At the performance briefing, Lin Zhong, chairman of the board of CIFI Holdings, told a reporter from Securities Daily. , After this round of adjustment, the Chinese real estate industry will shift from the high debt, high leverage, and high growth model to a new model of low debt, low risk, and light assets.
Obviously, real estate developers have realized that the industry will bid farewell to the development stage of "heroes based on scale", and it is time to slow down and settle more.
At the performance briefing site in recent years, "quality growth" has become one of the key words for high-frequency output among the population at the helm of real estate companies.
At present, the real estate market has entered the dual-track development stage of stock and increment. The important issue facing developers is that, after surviving in the competitive landscape of survival of the fittest, they need to transform their role into developers and truly serve providers for a better life. Transformation, exerting efforts in the real estate-related diversified subdivision business track, and promoting the industry to enter the stage of professional development.
"In the past, every year we used 10% of the sales proceeds of the year to invest in holding properties. The cash flow of the three main business channels of commercial, long-term rental apartments and property management is getting higher and higher. When these three businesses add up, we strive to maintain Annualized growth of 30% to 40% of annual operating income." The management of Longfor Group told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the growth of operating property income will act as a stabilizer for crossing the cycle.
As for the future development strategy, "Midea Real Estate should maintain its own strength, make good products and services in the basic market, and at the same time, in terms of related diversification, it will cultivate the existing and already rolled out construction technology, business services and intelligence. , forming a supplement to the main business in the future." Hao Hengle said.
Looking back at the past ten years, property management, agency construction, residential services and other subdivided specialized businesses from the real estate development field, all have related companies listed on A-shares, H-shares or U.S. stocks, China Resources Vientiane Life, Greentown Management, Shell Search Representative companies in the real estate and other sub-sectors have made great strides in the capital market.
As Li Wenjie said, in order to achieve a higher-quality and more sustainable development model, the real estate industry has to go from being a physical space builder to gradually developing into an operator and service provider that continuously provides services to institutions and individual customers relying on physical space. Mainly, this is also the only way to explore and transform from the old model to the new model.
Capital is deployed around real estate services
Help explore new models of real estate development
By the end of 2021, the urbanization rate of my country's permanent population will be 64.72%.
At present, my country's real estate market has entered the initial stage of "adding deposits simultaneously".
The business around the stock market has ushered in an opportunity for development.
"According to the law of real estate development, it can be roughly divided into three stages. At different stages, relevant departments and market players need to use different financial tools to drive the healthy development of the industry." Deputy General Manager of Cushman & Wakefield Beijing, North District Valuation and Consulting Services Hu Feng, the head of the department, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the first stage is a period of rapid construction, and increasing the per capita living area is the main task. Financial institutions "leverage" around the residential format; the second stage is the dominance of existing housing in housing supply. The status has improved, and the market has entered the stage of “adding deposits simultaneously”, and capital has begun to pursue assets that rely on refined operations to enhance the value of real estate; the third stage is that the market has entered the stage of professional development of real estate, and the real estate asset securitization market has matured. For example, real estate public offering REITs have become important Investment targets.
The current Chinese real estate market is entering a parallel moment between the second and third stages.
Aside from about 180 listed real estate companies whose main business is development, in view of the market-oriented growth of specialized segmented businesses in the industry, in the past ten years, the capital market has created the first stock in China's community service operation and the first in the housing service platform. One share, the first share to be built on behalf of...
A long track business worth talking about is the property management industry.
It took only more than 8 years for the property management industry to grow from obscurity to a market value of more than 800 billion yuan.
In the past 8 years, about 60 property management companies have successively landed on H-shares, and their price-earnings ratio PE once returned from the "hot" of 80 times of individual companies to the "calm" of less than 30 times.
Today, although the real estate industry has entered the adjustment period, the average price-earnings ratio of the property management industry has dropped to 15 times, but there is no doubt that the independent market operation of the property management company has taken a key step, and the annual income scale of the industry has broken. billions of dollars.
In addition to the property management industry, multiple players in the real estate market are also exploring new models of real estate development. Banks and institutional investors are gradually increasing their investment in real estate types other than residential development.
According to the monitoring data of Cushman & Wakefield, since 2019, real estate investment in office buildings, business parks, industrial logistics, industrial real estate, long-term rental apartments and other real estate investments has become the asset type favored by investors. Among them, the proportion of industrial logistics investment in investors' favored assets has increased from 2% in 2019 increased to 26% in the first half of this year; long-term rental apartments increased from 2% to 7% at the same time.
Regarding the financial support for the long-term rental housing market, on February 27 this year, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Banking and Insurance Institutions Supporting the Development of the Affordable Rental Housing Market", pointing out that the financial support for the construction and operation of affordable rental housing should be further strengthened. support.
On August 31, Beijing Affordable Housing, Shenzhen Talent Housing and Xiamen Anju Group's first batch of 3 affordable rental housing (hereinafter referred to as "guaranteed rental housing") REITs were listed and traded simultaneously on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, which also means that China's REITs market Construction took an important step.
"The first batch of rental housing REITs has opened a new door for the sustainable development of 'investment, financing, management, and withdrawal' reinvestment for my country's rental housing infrastructure assets, effectively revitalizing the stock rental housing assets, and expanding the financing channels for rental housing. It has a milestone significance in the practice of the project.” Hu Feng said that since 2014, more than 400 real estate asset securitization products have been issued, involving a capital of about 830 billion yuan, and investors are paying more attention to real estate assets other than residential. Higher and higher.
Regarding the future development of public rental REITs for non-state-owned rental housing, Hu Feng put forward four suggestions: First, encourage the issuance of non-state-owned public rental housing REITs for construction on land for sale, and clarify the exit route; The third is to incorporate supporting businesses that are inseparable from subsidized rental housing into the field of publicly offered REITs to increase the return on asset packages; the fourth is to establish a nationwide rental housing project information disclosure mechanism and a municipal-level leasing management service platform.
Various signs show that when the old and new models of real estate development are changing, many interviewees have reached a consensus that the stock market and urban renewal needs will bring a market size of more than trillions of yuan in multiple sub-tracks; In the market, the scale of commercial housing sales will remain above 10 trillion yuan for many years to come.
"In the context of China's high-quality economic development, the demand for residential housing will not stagnate and shrink." Li Wenjie said that in the era of housing improvement, consumers' core demand for housing, in addition to changes and growth in the physical space of housing, pays more attention to Quality of living and service.
Forging diversified and differentiated products and services to better meet the improvement needs of different groups is a deterministic path through the future cycle.
So, how will the real estate industry develop in the next decade?
Hao Hengle told the "Securities Daily" reporter, "In the next ten years, we will still be optimistic about the real estate industry for a long time. If there is demand, this industry will have a future. It's just that the demand structure changes and we pay more attention to quality and service. We believe that after a short cycle After the sexual pressure, the supply and demand in the future will be more stable and healthy, and the participants in the industry who can survive will be more rational.” (Securities Daily)