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The Seoul apartment sales and demand index fell below 80 this week due to the announcement of additional interest rate hikes and falling house prices.
According to a survey by the Korea Real Estate Agency today (23rd), the Seoul apartment sales and supply index this week recorded 79.5, lower than last week's (80.2), and the 80 line of the index collapsed.
The lower the purchase/demand index of '100', which is the baseline, means that there are more people who want to sell houses on the market than people who want to buy them.
The trading supply and demand index is a relative comparison at the time of the survey, but in terms of simple numbers, this week's index is the lowest in three years and three months since the fourth week of June 2019 (78.7).
The Seoul apartment sales and demand index has been on the decline for 20 consecutive weeks since the survey (91.1) in the first week of May.
It recorded 99.6 in the survey on November 15 last year, and since the baseline of 100 collapsed, the 'sell advantage' situation has continued for 45 consecutive weeks with more sellers than buyers.
The continued decline in the index is due to the fact that the trading market is hardly recovering due to concerns over steep interest rate hikes and falling house prices.
On the 22nd, as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) took three consecutive giant steps (a 0.75 percentage point increase in the base rate at a time), an additional rate hike is inevitable in Korea, including the possibility of a big step (a 0.5 percentage point increase in the base rate). situation.
According to the Seoul Real Estate Information Plaza, the monthly transaction volume of the apartment sales market in Seoul has been at an all-time low this year.
The number of transactions, which stood at only 642 in July, is still at 602 as of the 23rd, one week before the transaction report deadline in August.
This is less than 15% of the trading volume (4,64) a year ago.
In Yongsan-gu, where there is a 'double jeopardy' until the development of the international business district before the presidential office, only 7 cases were reported last month, 8 cases in Gwangjin-gu and 11 cases in Gwanak-gu.
Nowon-gu, which has the highest apartment transaction volume in Seoul, also recorded 38 transactions last month, 12.4% of August last year (307).
On the other hand, based on the real estate big data company Asil, the number of apartments for sale in Seoul reached 6830 as of yesterday (22nd).
As some sellers have recently switched to cheonsei due to sluggish trading, the daily number is increasing and decreasing, but this is a 61% increase compared to a year ago (37,838 cases).
A representative of a real estate agency in Sanggye-dong, Nowon-gu said, "These days, even 'quick selling' is not easy to sell.
The nationwide apartment jeonse supply and demand index fell from 90.0 last week to 89.1 this week, and the index collapsed at 90.
Among them, the Seoul apartment jeonse supply and demand index fell from 85.6 last week to 84.5 this week.
New jeonse properties are piling up as tenants who have become difficult to raise their deposit due to borrowing in the aftermath of the interest rate hike are forced to renew their contracts and give up moving.
In addition, as multi-family homes do not sell, some of the properties are turned into rentals, and the amount of cheonsei rentals continues to increase.
According to Asil, there are currently 61,613 apartment rentals in Seoul, up 4.5% from a week ago (58,918 cases) and 9.5% from 10 days ago (56,240 cases).
Experts predict that some transactions may take a breather due to the recent lifting of local regulatory zones, but as additional interest rate increases continue, transaction stasis and house price decline will continue for the time being.
Park Won-gap, senior real estate expert at Kookmin Bank, said, “The housing market is rapidly cooling due to the interest rate shock, so it is time to think about normalizing transactions. there," he said.