According to the results of 2022, the volume of Russia's GDP will decrease by 2.9% instead of the previously expected 4.2%, said the head of the country's Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov, speaking at the Federation Council.
According to him, the Russian economy as a whole turned out to be resistant to external challenges, and the lowest point of its decline will be passed already in the fourth quarter of this year.
As the minister noted, the monthly rate of decline in GDP began to slow down, and consumer demand began to recover largely due to the stable situation in the labor market.
Thus, today the unemployment rate remains at a historically low level of 3.9%, and by the end of the year it will be 4.2%.
“Social support measures launched in the second quarter of this year on behalf of the President of the country make their contribution.
This is the indexation of pensions, the subsistence minimum, the minimum wage, as well as the start of new payments,” Reshetnikov added.
Moreover, according to the estimate of the Ministry of Economic Development, for the past 17 weeks, the consumer market has been experiencing a decline in prices after the rush spring jump.
As the head of the department recalled, back in April, the annual inflation rate rose to 17.8%, but by the end of 2022 it could drop to 12.4%.
The minister also noted that in the first half of this year, investment activity remained high, as business sought to speed up the completion of projects that had already begun.
In addition, there has been a revival in lending, including due to a reduction in the key rate of the Central Bank.
“These results are the result of the implementation of the priority action plan, which launched the processes of adapting the economy to new realities.
The forecast of socio-economic development is based on the scenario of continuing such accelerated adaptation,” Reshetnikov emphasized.
Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov
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© Alexander Kryazhev
According to the ministry’s calculations, in 2023 Russia’s GDP will decrease by another 0.8%, but already in 2024 and 2025 the country’s economy will enter the positive zone and will grow by 2.6% annually.
At the same time, inflation next year may slow down to 5.5%, after which it should reach the target level of 4%.
The real incomes of Russians, after falling by 2% in 2022, may grow by 2% in 2023.
In the future, the indicator will continue to increase and will add 3.1% in 2024, and 2.8% in 2025.
The unemployment rate, in turn, may rise slightly next year to 4.4%, but in 2024 it will drop to 4.3%, and in 2025 to 4.1%.
Experts from the Ministry of Economic Development predict a gradual recovery in trade.
So, if in 2022 the volume of trade decreases by 6.1%, then in 2023 the value will increase by 2.7%, in 2024 - by 3.7%, and in 2025 - by 3.1 %.
At the same time, Russia will continue to refuse to use dollars and euros in trade with other countries, follows from the MED forecast.
Thus, by 2025, the share of rubles in foreign trade settlements is planned to be increased to 40%, and that of the currencies of neutral states to 20%.
Back in 2021, these values were only 19.5 and 1.6%, respectively.
Budget solution
As Maxim Reshetnikov said, now the budget impulse is also supporting the economy.
Meanwhile, against the backdrop of increased government spending, federal treasury spending in August began to exceed revenue.
According to the Russian Ministry of Finance, in 2022 the country's budget deficit could be about 2% of GDP.
The government, meanwhile, expects that the difference between revenues and expenditures of the treasury will continue to remain negative over the next three years, but will gradually decrease.
So, in 2023, the budget deficit is projected at 2% of GDP, in 2024 - 1.4%, and in 2025 - 0.7%.
Nevertheless, the country's leadership is not going to use the funds of the National Welfare Fund to cover the deficit and intends to compensate for budget expenditures through borrowing.
This statement was made yesterday by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.
At the same time, as the head of the Cabinet emphasized, the level of Russia's public debt will continue to remain at an acceptable level.
“This approach will provide more active support for the economy during the period of adaptation and restructuring of economic ties, on the one hand, and on the other hand, it will contribute to sustainable development and structural changes in the medium term, maintaining confidence in the macroeconomic policy pursued by the state,” the prime minister said.
In new conditions
According to the Ministry of Economic Development, in recent months the overall situation in the Russian economy has been better than previously thought.
At the same time, it is planned to accelerate the country's adaptation to new conditions through the implementation of systemic decisions and priorities adopted by the government.
“They include the reorientation of Russian export supplies and the development of transport and logistics corridors, import substitution, ensuring technological sovereignty and accelerated digitalization, stimulating entrepreneurial activity and private investment activity, developing the financial system, and increasing labor market flexibility,” the ministry explained.
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Improving economic dynamics and further growth prospects will directly depend on the speed of development of industries and domestic markets.
This opinion was shared with RT by the first vice-president of the all-Russian public organization of small and medium-sized businesses "Support of Russia" Pavel Sigal.
“The current vector of economic development is aimed at strengthening the industrial and manufacturing sector, and the work of recent years already quite clearly illustrates the relevance of this direction.
Also, one of the most important conditions for harmonious growth is the maximum strengthening of intersectoral cooperation.
Now many representatives of various industries have the opportunity to evaluate how much easier and more profitable it is to enter into partnership contracts within the country, both in terms of settlements and logistics,” explained Segal.
In his opinion, the development and simplification of the work of small enterprises should also play an important role for the economy.
As the specialist emphasized, it is this business segment that is closest to the consumer.
At the same time, the country's leadership still needs to take into account the likelihood of another exacerbation of external risks, Nikita Maslennikov, head of the Finance and Economics department at the Institute of Contemporary Development, is sure.
According to the expert, sanctions pressure may increase in the foreseeable future, and already in 2023 the global economy risks facing a new crisis, which will become a challenge for the Russian budget.
“The budget issue will be difficult, but its solution will ensure the stability and sustainability of the financial system.
In general, the country's leadership has accumulated a lot of experience during the pandemic, which can be useful in the current situation.
In particular, the authorities are now quite successfully using the lessons of COVID-19 to fight inflation.
A similar trend will be observed in the future when solving problems related to overcoming sanctions restrictions,” Maslennikov concluded.