The rise in rates is already slowing down the demand for housing and could lower the price by 9%: "Whoever thinks of selling their flat, should not delay"

• Euribor This will make your mortgage payment more expensive according to the year you signed it

The rate hike is turning out to be a

housing market.

The increase in money prices has been affecting the price of mortgages for months, but its impact also extends to the rest of the sector and is already noticeable in the demand for housing, sales, prices and, by extension, the

.

After years at historical lows, in the first quarter of 2022 there was an increase in mortgage rates of 63 basis points, the largest semi-annual rise of all time, as published yesterday by the European Central Bank (ECB).

In an article included in its Economic Bulletin, the Eurobank estimates that an increase of one percentage point in mortgage rates causes a 5% decrease in housing prices after two years, as well as an 8% drop in real estate investment.

However, if a non-linear projection is taken into account, the impact of that one percentage point increase is doubled.

So house prices could

The conclusions draw attention after the escalation of the

of the pandemic and on the verge of a new rate hike by the ECB at its next meeting in October.

"In the real estate sector, this means

to financing by both households and builders," says

, director of the

Double mortgage claims

dropdown

Mortgages have become the main focus of user claims to Spanish financial institutions in 2021. Last year, the Bank of Spain received a total of 11,481 claims related to housing loans, 94.1% more than in the previous year (almost double), and now account for a third of the total balance after increasing the proportion to 33.4%.

It is one of the conclusions included

presented yesterday by the banking supervisor, in which it also notes an increase in financial claims in general of 61% compared to 2020. In total, it received 34,330 requests from users, which is one of the highest figures of the last decade.

In the regulator's opinion, 2022 could close "very close" to the historical maximum of 2017.

In the Report, the Bank of Spain explains that in 2021 "it is not possible to identify a single cause that could explain the high volume of claims received" and these are distributed in a fairly homogeneous way and following the pattern of the immediately previous years.

After mortgages are cards -credit, debit, 'revolving' and prepaid-, with 10,132 claims (80.2% more) and a share of 29.5%, and then current accounts and deposits, with 5,899 claims (40.7% more and a weight of 17.2%).

"In this way, in the coming months we could expect a moderation in housing demand and supply, with opposing effects on prices, and which together we estimate would lead to a slowdown in the growth rates of prices observed in the residential segment. during the last year," adds Arias.

In Spain, the current price increases are between 5% and 7% and, although it is difficult to make a generalized forecast due to the heterogeneity of the market,

, director of Studies and spokesman for the real estate portal Pisos.com, concedes that the year could end below 5% growth.

"The forecasts of the value of real estate change. Until now they grew at a high rate, especially in large capitals, but it is foreseeable that the reduction in the purchasing power of buyers and the slowdown in sales will slow it down in the second half of the year. It is not so much that the houses are going to be devalued, but that they will be revalued less", he adds.

This affects the profitability of those who want to sell their property in the coming months.

"The forecasts indicate that the price of

will continue to slow down towards the end of the year, therefore,

," they warn from the HelpMyCash comparator.

At the foot of the market, the changes are already beginning to be noticed.

Industry sources say that real estate offices and agencies have experienced a break in the generation of new sales and business opportunities since July.

"There is a clear slowdown in the volume of operations that has been registered until now", taking into account the acceleration of the first semester to anticipate, precisely, the rate hike.

In the coming months, it is estimated that

and the gap that currently exists between the price at which homes are published on real estate portals and their final sale price will narrow.

"The usual thing is to publish the house at a price that is later lowered between 5% and 10% before closing the sale. Faced with the rise in mortgage prices,

. Therefore, sellers are they will be forced to adjust the values ​​from the beginning to prevent the sale time from being delayed even further", they explain in HelpMyCash.

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