Some profits have greatly increased, while others have suffered losses. Why is the performance of flu vaccine companies so different?

　　Author: Lin Zhiyin

　　In June this year, the outbreak of Influenza A (H3N2) in southern provinces once triggered the demand for influenza vaccination, but it appeared in the semi-annual reports of flu vaccine listed companies, but there was a clear differentiation. The company's net profit was at a loss.

　　How to treat this phenomenon?

　　Performance differentiation

　　Influenza is a highly contagious and fast-spreading acute respiratory infectious disease caused by influenza virus. The incubation period is 1-4 days, with an average of 2 days.

According to the virus nucleoprotein and matrix protein, it is divided into four types: A, B, C, and D.

　　my country is located in the northern hemisphere. The outbreak of influenza epidemics generally occurs in November, December and January of the following year, but this year it entered the summer epidemic peak early in June, including Guangdong, Jiangxi, Fujian and other southern provinces. Summer flu warnings have been issued.

Influenza vaccination is the most cost-effective way to protect susceptible people.

　　Vaccines need to be issued in batches before they can be marketed. In previous years, the batch issuance and sales of influenza vaccines were concentrated in the second half of the year. This year, affected by the summer influenza epidemic, the batch issuance of influenza vaccines in my country has also been advanced to May.

Compared with the fact that the annual influenza vaccination work only started in the autumn of previous years, in June this year, some southern provinces also started the influenza vaccination work ahead of schedule, and the demand for influenza vaccination ushered in a small peak.

　　However, judging from the performance of influenza vaccine listed companies in the first half of the year, they showed completely different results. Specifically, taking the three influenza vaccine companies of A-share Zhonghualan Vaccine, Jindike, and Baike Biotechnology as examples, the performance of these companies is seriously differentiated. .

　　Among them, the most eye-catching performance is Hualan Vaccine (301207.SZ). According to reports, in the first half of this year, the company achieved operating income of 1.061 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 96.25 times; the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 298 million yuan, A year-on-year increase of 11.28 times.

　　However, the performance of Jindike (688670.SH) showed a loss. In the first half of this year, the company achieved operating income of 16.3954 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 48.91%; the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company lost 17.258 million yuan.

　　The performance of Baike Bio (688276.SH) declined. In the first half of this year, the company achieved operating income of 441 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.28%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 73.5717 million yuan, a decrease of 46.83%.

　　The reason why Hualan Vaccine’s performance has increased significantly is related to the company’s preemptive listing of influenza vaccines, while the speed of the other two companies’ vaccine listings is slightly slower.

　　Hualan Vaccine's semi-annual report stated that during the reporting period, according to the monitoring data of the National Influenza Center of China, since mid-May 2022, influenza activities in southern my country have gradually shown a high incidence, which has promoted the company's influenza vaccine sales. In late May 2019, the supply of influenza vaccines was started, and the first batch of influenza vaccines will be issued in late May 2022.

　　According to the batch issuance data of biological products released by the China National Institute for Food and Drug Control, as of the end of June 2022, a total of 64 batches of Hualan influenza vaccine quadrivalent influenza vaccine have been approved and issued, including 52 batches for adults and 12 batches for children. The number of batches issued in batches of quadrivalent influenza vaccine continued to maintain a leading domestic position.

　　Intense competition in the industry

　　The antigenicity of influenza virus is volatile and spreads rapidly. Influenza virus strains may mutate every year. Therefore, influenza vaccine needs to be vaccinated every year. Influenza vaccine is valid for one year.

Influenza vaccine companies need to select the strains for production according to the annual prevalence of influenza strains. The influenza virus strains required by companies to produce influenza vaccines come from the World Health Organization (WHO) regulatory laboratory.

According to the production process of influenza vaccines, domestic influenza vaccine manufacturers usually select the corresponding influenza strains and prepare vaccines after the WHO-recommended winter influenza season strains are announced (usually in February in the northern hemisphere). Inactivation, splitting and finally obtaining the corresponding influenza vaccine, the production cycle is usually 6 months, that is, the production of the first batch of influenza vaccines can generally be completed in August.

　　A person from a flu vaccine company told Yicai.com that the batch issuance and sales of some flu vaccine companies can be advanced to May and June this year. It is not that the manufacturers predicted the influenza epidemic in the summer, but more to seize the market first. machine results.

　　"The production of influenza vaccines generally needs to wait until the circulating strains recommended by the WHO are announced, but in the context of the current fierce competition in the influenza industry, various manufacturers hope that their own vaccines can be produced and marketed as soon as possible, because the sooner the market is , the more conducive to seizing market opportunities. Therefore, in this case, it is not ruled out that some companies will adopt a slightly radical method, that is, through research and judgment, such as deduction based on historical laws or the prevalence of the southern hemisphere, etc., bet on the epidemic strains in advance And vaccine preparation, this kind of bet carries certain risks, if the bet is not successful, it will lead to the scrapping of the vaccine produced in advance, but if the bet is successful, it can seize the market in advance." The company official said.

　　Although the performance of vaccine companies and manufacturers in the first half of this year was highly differentiated, the market is still optimistic about the market demand for influenza vaccines in the second half of the year.

　　For example, Donghai Securities stated in a recent research report that the risk of influenza epidemics in this autumn and winter is high, and it is expected that the CDCs in various places will increase the reserve of influenza vaccines.

　　As of August 11, 2022, since the beginning of this year, the number of influenza vaccines that have been approved and issued by the China National Institute for Food and Drug Control has reached 14, including trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine, trivalent live attenuated vaccine, and trivalent subunit influenza. Vaccines and quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccines also involve more than 8 manufacturers, and there are still some uncertainties about how much market share each company can compete for.