Prosperity in danger: The great shortage of personnel

Where have they all gone?

That was the question that moved more people than almost any other this summer.

Whether at the airports, in restaurants or in hotels - there was a lack of staff everywhere.

Flights were cancelled, opening times had to be shortened and hotel rooms closed.

The shortage of skilled workers, which could no longer be overlooked, has turned into a general shortage of workers.

The problem: The summer was only a foretaste of what Germany has to expect in the coming years.

Because in the next 15 years, the baby boomers – the baby boomers born between 1955 and 1970 – will retire.

And far fewer young people are moving up.

But although there are few things as predictable as demographic developments, politicians and companies have long failed to act decisively.

Now the need, apparently suddenly, is quite great.

And not just in service industries like hospitality, which lost many employees to retail in the pandemic.

Industrial companies and craft businesses even have to turn down orders because they lack employees.

This means that many important large-scale projects are on the brink.

Germany must advance the energy transition, lay fiber optic cables, build affordable housing and renovate bridges.

But how is that supposed to work without enough workers?

Looking ahead, the shortage of staff threatens to endanger prosperity.

The biggest lever is migration

It is all the more important that those involved pull out all the stops to finally recruit more skilled workers.

The biggest lever is the targeted recruitment of skilled workers from abroad.

Some people still don't want to hear that, and the federal government and companies shouldn't just rely on it either.

However, calculations by researchers clearly show that even if all domestic potential were to be increased, if women more often worked full-time and older people worked longer, the labor force potential in Germany would shrink sharply in the coming decades without any migration.

To keep it constant, net immigration of around 400,000 skilled workers per year is required.

Not an easy task.

In the long term, researchers consider net immigration of around 100,000 people a year to be realistic.

It is therefore correct that Federal Minister of Labor Hubertus Heil and Federal Minister of the Interior Nancy Faeser (both SPD) want to facilitate the immigration of skilled workers - they want to present a draft law in the autumn.

Since March 2020, Germany has had a Skilled Immigration Act that companies can use to recruit not only academics but also professionally qualified specialists from countries outside the EU.

In practice, however, it is far too bureaucratic and the procedures too lengthy.

A particularly big hurdle is the recognition of foreign qualifications, after all, the German dual training system is internationally unique.

In the future, skilled workers should also be allowed to enter Germany if their professional qualifications are not yet recognized in Germany, but they have professional experience and an employment contract.

They should then get their qualifications recognized with the help of their employer.

This is a sensible and pragmatic solution.

A point system sends an important signal

In addition, Germany should get a points system.

Anyone who meets the minimum requirements in three out of four categories – knowledge of German, age, professional experience, proof of training – and can secure their own livelihood can then enter the country for a year to look for a job, even without a permanent employment contract.

Such a system is not a panacea, but it opens up another access route and sends a signal to the world: Germany wants to be an immigration country for skilled workers.

This is long overdue.

The federal government should now quickly get the law on the way, but also resolutely adjust it, just like the much-cited example of Canada, if undesirable developments occur.

Of course, the federal government, companies, employment agencies and local authorities should make further adjustments at the same time.

They should finally provide enough childcare facilities so that women can work more if they want to.

They should promote the further training of the unemployed and low-skilled workers, who also have to open themselves up to it even more.

And they should throw a still existing taboo overboard: the debate about a higher retirement age.

In Germany there were recently almost two million job vacancies.

It won't be less anytime soon.