(Economic Observation) Will China's property market recovery be blocked in August, will the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" reappear?
China News Agency, Beijing, September 16th, question: Will the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" reappear when China's property market recovery is blocked in August?
China News Agency reporter Pang Wuji
After a rebound in June, the recovery of the real estate market in major Chinese cities stalled in July and August, adjusting for two consecutive months.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 16th, core indicators such as housing prices, real estate investment, and commercial housing sales in China's large and medium-sized cities all fell year-on-year in August.
September and October are traditional peak seasons for the property market. How will China's real estate market trend in the future?
A number of property market indicators are still in a downward channel
In August, housing prices in large and medium-sized cities fell as a whole, and the scope of falling cities expanded.
In the month, among the 70 cities, 50 and 56 cities experienced a month-on-month decline in new and second-hand housing prices, respectively; the average decline in new and second-hand housing prices in the 70 cities also showed an expanding trend.
However, housing prices in some first-tier and strong second-tier cities still maintained an upward trend, and the trend of differentiation in the property market still persisted.
Among the first-tier cities, Guangzhou's new house prices "turned down" in August, and Shenzhen fell for the second consecutive month.
However, in the same period, the price of new houses in Shanghai rose by 0.6% month-on-month, ranking first among the 70 cities, and the price of new houses in Beijing increased by 0.4% month-on-month.
In addition, the Yangtze River Delta property market is resilient.
In August, the prices of new houses in Nanjing, Hangzhou, Hefei, Ningbo, and Wuxi all increased month-on-month, with the highest increase.
The property market in the Northeast region is still under pressure.
In addition to housing prices, from January to August, the amount of real estate development investment in China fell by 7.4% year-on-year, and the decline was 1 percentage point higher than the previous month.
The cumulative decline in the sales area and sales of commercial housing has narrowed, but it still exceeds 20%.
Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the National Economic Comprehensive Statistics Department, also admitted that there is still a process to improve transmission from sales to real estate investment and production.
To promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, we must continue to make efforts.
Pang Ming, Chief Economist and Director of Research at Jones Lang LaSalle Greater China, said that from a comprehensive perspective of various indicators, the bottoming and recovery process of the real estate industry is still disturbed, and the obvious improvement on the sales side, investment side and financing side may not be enough. More patience is required.
Supportive Policy Plus Code
At the end of August, the executive meeting of the State Council clearly proposed policies such as allowing local “one city, one policy” to flexibly use credit and other policies to reasonably support rigid and improved housing needs.
This policy is superimposed on the LPR (loan market quoted interest rate) of more than 5 years, which is referenced by the mortgage interest rate of the current month, and has been reduced by 15 basis points again, freeing up space for local optimization of property market policies.
Mortgage rates are currently at historic lows.
The average interest rate for first home loans in 42 cities according to Rong 360 statistics has dropped to 4.39% in August.
Since September, the pace of policy introduction in various places has accelerated slightly.
Chen Wenjing, market research director of the Index Division of the China Index Research Institute, said that Qingdao, Jinan, Fuzhou and other places continue to optimize demand-side policies.
Among them, the relaxation of purchase restrictions in Qingdao and Jinan is conducive to restoring market confidence and improving homebuyer sentiment.
It is worth noting that in the past two days, some cities have also withdrawn their relaxation policies, which means that subsequent hot city policies may be more cautiously introduced.
The industry believes that at present, buyers' concerns about the delivery of new homes are still an important factor in lowering expectations for the property market.
In terms of "guaranteing the handover of buildings", Jiang Wanrong, Vice Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, recently revealed that last month, relevant departments introduced special measures to support cities in need by means of special loans from policy banks to promote the sale of overdue and difficult-to-delivery properties. The construction of the residential project has been delivered, and the special work is currently being carried out in an orderly manner.
Wang Xiaoqiang, chief analyst of Zhuge Housing Data Research Center, said that in August, the sales area and sales amount of commercial housing both rose slightly month-on-month, which sent some positive signals to the industry, and also showed that the central and local governments actively advocated "guaranteing the delivery of buildings". to the effect.
Can "Golden Nine" arrive as scheduled?
Chen Wenjing said that from the perspective of market performance, according to the monitoring of the middle index, in the first two weeks of September, the transaction area of commercial housing in key cities still fell sharply year-on-year, and the traditional "Golden Nine" started less than expected.
Yang Kewei, deputy general manager of the Kerui Research Center, said that the traditional "Golden Nine" has been absent for two consecutive years, and this year's property market "Golden Nine" may not be able to repeat the past "prosperity".
He said that, on the one hand, the turning point of the industry cycle is coming. With the strengthening of the market downward trend, it is difficult for the traditional sales season to see a sharp rise.
On the other hand, the effect of the property stabilization policy is still to be released, coupled with unstable market confidence, it will be difficult to reverse the downward market expectation in the short term.
For some time to come, the property market performance of domestic hot cities will continue to differentiate.
Ding Zuyu, CEO of E-House Enterprise Group, believes that the future real estate market may show an "L-shaped" trend.
At present, the "one vertical" in "L" has almost been completed. After the bottom is established in the third quarter of this year, there may still be a long-term bottom-building process.
(Finish)
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