Original title: 15 days fell 22%, the market value of "Ning Wang" fell to the trillion mark!
What happened to the new energy track?
Fund allocation ratio is unprecedented
The market value of Ningwang has fallen, and the logic of new energy investment has changed?
As the vanguard of the rebound since the end of April this year, new energy has recently undergone a collective adjustment. Taking the leading Ningde era as an example, in the past 15 trading days, the stock price has fallen by 22%, and the latest market value has returned to the trillion mark, which is 10,600 100 million.
Behind the weak performance of Ningwang's share price is the collective pressure of power battery manufacturers in the midstream of the new energy vehicle industry chain.
At present, the cost of upstream raw materials remains high, especially the price of lithium carbonate once again stood at 500,000 / ton this year, an increase of nearly 8 times compared with the beginning of last year, and the industry supply and demand pattern continues to be tight.
In addition, it is worth noting that new energy, as a high-growth track, still needs to pay attention to the impact of liquidity.
Under the expectation that the Federal Reserve may continue to raise interest rates aggressively, how should we invest well?
Ningwang's market value returns to the trillion mark
Since late August, the new energy track has been adjusted significantly, and the stock price of CATL, a leader with weather vane significance, has fallen one after another. Back near the trillion mark, it was 1.06 trillion.
It is worth noting that this happened just after the Ningde Times released its semi-annual report.
The semi-annual report shows that in the first half of 2022, CATL achieved operating income of 112.971 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 156.32%; net profit attributable to the parent was 8.168 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 82.17%.
Although both revenue and net profit have increased significantly, the continued decline in gross profit margin has caused some concerns in the market.
The gross profit margin of CATL in the first half of the year was 18.68%, a year-on-year decrease of 8.58%. In terms of subdivision, the gross profit margins of the three main products, power battery systems, lithium battery materials and energy storage, have declined to varying degrees, respectively. 7.96%, 0.5% and 30.17%.
The main reason behind this is the high cost of upstream raw materials, which affects the gross profit.
According to the investor relations activity record sheet disclosed by CATL on the 23rd, CATL replied that the business model of energy storage and power is different from that of customers, and the price transmission mechanism of energy storage is slow. It is more sensitive to cost changes, resulting in a low gross profit margin in the first half of the year.
Similar to the trend of power batteries, gross profit margins are expected to improve in the future.
Most of the power battery customers have basically completed the price adjustment negotiation in the second quarter, and some energy storage is under negotiation.
Both the midstream and the downstream are working for the upstream
Since the cost of power batteries accounts for nearly 60% of the total cost of automobiles, there have been OEMs publicly complaining that they are "working for the Ningde era". constraints.
In the first half of this year, the gross profit margin of CATL dropped from 27.26% last year to 18.68%, and the gross profit margin of Guoxuan Hi-Tech dropped from 19.88% last year to 14.42%; in contrast, the gross profit margin of Tianqi Lithium in the first half of the year decreased from 51.15% last year. % increased significantly to 84.26%, and the gross profit margin of Ganfeng Lithium increased from 35.13% last year to 60.53%.
At present, the upward trend of upstream raw materials is still continuing.
Among them, the price of lithium carbonate, which is an important raw material, is at a new high in recent days. According to the latest data released by Shanghai Steel Federation on September 13, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose by 2,600 yuan/ton in a single day, and the average price stood at 500,000 yuan/ton. This is the second time this year that it has stood on the warning line of 500,000/ton, an increase of nearly 8 times compared with the beginning of last year, and an increase of nearly 80% compared with the beginning of this year.
Some analysts said that it is difficult for upstream raw material prices to go down in the short term, and prices continue to remain at the current level, which puts great pressure on the middle and lower reaches.
Faced with such expectations, leading manufacturers are stepping up their deployment of upstream resources. CATL, BYD, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, and Yiwei Lithium Energy have all deployed upstream lithium resources in the form of equity participation and joint ventures.
Among them, the production capacity of CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy and Guoxuan Hi-Tech are expected to reach 125,000 tons, 15,000 tons and 20,000 tons respectively by the end of the year.
However, it will take time for the industry to achieve a balance between supply and demand.
Tianqi Lithium Industry said at the performance briefing a few days ago that the mismatch of upstream and downstream expansion cycles will lead to a continuous tight situation in the supply of lithium products in the short and medium term, and it will take some time for the supply and demand pattern of the lithium industry to achieve a real balance. .
According to the calculation of Shanghai Steel Federation, after entering 2023, with the release of many projects such as salt lake and pyroxene, the growth rate of lithium resource supply may officially exceed the growth rate of demand in 2023, and the original demand gap caused by the mismatch between supply and demand will be made up. .
Superimposed the supply supplement brought by lithium battery recycling, thus ushering in the accumulation of storage for about three consecutive years. At that time, lithium prices may gradually return to rationality with the correction of supply and demand structure.
It may be difficult for the new energy track valuation to continue to expand
It is worth noting that new energy, as a high-growth track, still needs to pay attention to the impact of liquidity.
Some market participants believe that under the expectation that the Federal Reserve may continue to aggressively raise interest rates, it is not conducive to the expansion of the valuation of growth stocks.
At the same time, the high allocation ratio of mainstream investors on the new energy track also has certain risks.
Chen Li, vice chairman of Soochow International and global chief strategy officer, recently pointed out at Soochow Securities' 2022 Golden Autumn Strategy Conference that the current allocation ratio of stock-oriented public funds to new energy has reached an astonishing 40%, which is the history of A-shares. unprecedented highs.
He believes that the macro assumptions corresponding to this allocation ratio are relatively loose liquidity, economic highlights are concentrated in a few tracks, global inflation can be suppressed, and the energy crisis will continue.
"It can't be said that this assumption is wrong, but I personally feel that this assumption will have some weak points in the next six months." Chen Li said.
Standing at the moment, many fund managers with new energy as their main investment direction have said that they should select subdivided tracks and individual stocks.
Wang Di, manager of Rongtong New Energy Vehicle Fund, said that he continues to be optimistic about leading companies in power batteries, diaphragms, lithium battery equipment, automotive intelligence, and new energy power semiconductors.
The barriers to entry in these links are relatively high, and leading companies have significant advantages.
The price of lithium carbonate has continued to rise from last year to this year. In the long run, there is no shortage of lithium carbonate, and the current huge profits are unsustainable.
And after the sharp rise starting in 2020, the supply will be accelerated. At the same time, seeing that the price of lithium carbonate has become unbearable for the downstream, the ceiling of lithium price is getting closer and closer.
However, the actual price and share price trend of lithium still exceeded expectations, and we will continue to focus on this segment.
Han Guangzhe, manager of the Golden Eagle Fund, said that in the second half of the year, the focus will be on high-quality tracks in the booming industry chain, and he is more optimistic about some segments of photovoltaics, new energy vehicles and wind power.
In the field of photovoltaics, his focus is on components and inverters; in the field of new energy vehicles, he will pay attention to segments with good industry patterns, such as power batteries, structural parts, diaphragms, etc.; in the field of wind power, he believes that the pattern The good part is the tower and submarine cable.
(Broker China)