The world's largest rice exporter "shot", will international rice prices increase?

　　China News Service, September 15 (Xie Yiguan, a reporter from China News and Finance) In the international grain market, any "turbulence" may make people nervous.

　　Recently, India, the world's largest rice exporter, announced that it will impose export tariffs on rice. What does this move mean for the global grain market?

Will it affect the price of rice in the international market?

After wheat and sugar, India '

　　The Indian government announced on the 8th that from September 9, it will impose a 20% export tax on rice other than parboiled rice and basmati rice, and ban the export of broken rice.

　　According to the "Wall Street Journal" report, India's Ministry of Agriculture said that the main grain-producing states of Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Bihar had insufficient monsoon rainfall in June and unstable rainfall in July and August, resulting in a 13% reduction in the area of ​​rice planted. It fell to more than 23.1 million hectares from 26.7 million hectares a year earlier.

Data map.

Photo by Zhang Wei

　　On the one hand, rice production may decline, and on the other hand, India's domestic grain inflation is severe.

　　According to statistics from the Central Bureau of Statistics of India, India's CPI rose to 7% in August from 6.71% in July, ending a three-month downward trend.

Among them, the prices of cereals and their products rose by 9.57%.

　　According to the Financial Times, Ashok Gulati, a professor at India's Council for the Study of International Economic Relations, said the export curbs would "help curb domestic grain inflation". 

　　The export ban on broken rice and new export duties are the third major move by India to restrict food exports this year amid concerns about shrinking domestic supplies and inflation.

　　After India's hottest March and April in more than 100 years, India restricted exports of wheat and sugar in May amid fears of a heatwave hitting agricultural production everywhere.

Export tax pushes up rice prices in Asia

　　According to Statista, a global comprehensive data database, the world's major rice exporters in 2021 are India, Vietnam, Thailand, Pakistan and the United States.

India is the world's largest rice exporter, accounting for 40% of the world's rice exports.

Last year, India exported a record 21.5 million tonnes of rice.

　　India has been the cheapest supplier of rice, partly shielding African countries such as Nigeria, Benin and Cameroon from rising wheat and corn prices, a Mumbai-based distributor of a global trading firm said, according to Reuters. influences.

　　But after the export tax is levied, "India's rice export costs will increase. Since India's rice exports account for 40% of the world's total, it may push up the price of rice in the international market." Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told reporters.

　　According to Bloomberg, BV Krishna Rao, president of the Rice Exporters Association of India, expects the export price of white rice to exceed $400 a tonne, compared with the current FOB price of as high as $350.

　　"The rise in the price of rice will increase the economic burden and make it harder for low-income and food-deficient countries to survive." Li Guoxiang said, but my country's rice supply is relatively surplus, and India's move will not affect my country's rice supply structure. The impact of rice prices in my country is also minimal.

　　Peng Chao, director of the Rural Revitalization Research Center of the Management Cadre College of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, also believes that the increase in international rice prices has little impact on the domestic market.

"Although my country is the world's largest rice importer, it will only import 4.96 million tons in 2021, accounting for only about 3.4% of the total output. Moreover, my country's rice import source concentration is not high."

Data map: CCIC Cambodia inspectors inspect rice at a rice processing factory.

Photo courtesy of the company

　　But there are domestic concerns in India that the move will affect the position of Indian rice in the world market.

　　“Roughly 60% of India’s non-Basmati rice shipments are now subject to export duties. The restriction will benefit rivals Thailand and Vietnam, which are working together to support rice prices,” said BV Krishna Rao.

The export of broken rice is prohibited, how will it affect our country?

　　In addition to imposing export duties on rice other than parboiled and basmati rice, India has also banned the export of broken rice this time.

　　According to the Wall Street Journal, India exported about 3.8 million tonnes of broken rice to the world in the last fiscal year, which ended in March, or about a fifth of its total non-Basmati rice exports.

The cheap commodity was exported at 1.4 million tonnes between April and June, accounting for about a third of non-Basmati rice exports.

　　The "export ban" of Indian broken rice has also had an impact on international broken rice prices.

　　As Indian exporters stopped signing new contracts, buyers were trying to secure supplies from rivals Thailand, Vietnam and Myanmar, traders said, according to Reuters. 11) raised the price of 5% broken rice by around $20 per ton.

　　The Wall Street Journal also reported that China is the largest buyer of Indian broken rice, which is mainly used for animal feed and wine production.

　　According to the Zhiyan Consulting Report, China's customs data shows that in 2021, China's imports of brown rice will be 666.666 tons; China's polished rice imports will be 2,395,760.186 tons; and China's broken rice imports will be 2,515,321.889 tons.

Broken rice imports exceed milled and brown rice.

　　India's ban on the export of broken rice this time, will it affect the supply of broken rice in my country?

In Li Guoxiang's view, "China can completely import from other countries or use other things as feed, and Indian broken rice is a strong substitute." (End)

　　search

copy