• The OECD anticipates "a deterioration in growth" in all major economies, including Europe

The 19 study services that make up the

panel of the Fundación de Cajas de Ahorros (Funcas)

forecast that GDP will grow

by 4.2% in 2022,

in line with what was expected in July, but they forecast a

"sharp slowdown" in the economy Spain

in the

second half of this year,

with "very weak" growth in the third quarter (0.1%) and a fall of two tenths in the fourth (-0.2%).



For

2023

,

the forecast drops six tenths, to 1.9%,

according to the report echoed by Efe, and the

average annual

unemployment rate will hardly drop: it will close at

13.3% in 2022 -

two tenths less compared to the previous panel- and in 2023 it will only drop to

13% in 2023

-one tenth less-.

This year,

national demand

will contribute 2.7 percentage points, one tenth more than the previous panel, and the

foreign sector

, one and a half points, one tenth less than forecast in July;

while the next one, national demand will still drive activity, although less than estimated, while investment and household consumption will have lower growth.



Regarding inflationary pressures, the panel predicts that they will persist in "a context of deterioration and turmoil for the world and European economy", although they expect a

moderation in inflation

in the remaining months of the year, largely due to base effects.

Even so, the forecast for the

average annual inflation rate

of 2022 rises seven tenths, to

8.6%,

while that corresponding to

core inflation

increases by four tenths, to

5%.



As for

2023

, the consensus forecast has been revised upwards to

3.8%,

both for the headline and core CPI, while the projected year-on-year rates for the headline index for December 2022 and December 2023 are 7 .5% and 2.4%, respectively.



The panel expects a

reduction in the public deficit in 2022 and 2023

, a negative balance of public accounts that would be

5.2% of GDP this year and 4.6% next,

"More pessimistic forecasts than those of the Government and those of the Bank of Spain," the statement indicates.

In addition, interest rate forecasts



have been revised "strongly upwards" :

the ECB's deposit facility would be close to 1.5% at the end of the forecast period (half a point more than in the previous consensus) and the Euribor would reach up to 2.3%, while the yield on the 10-year bond would exceed 3.1%, one tenth more than in the July panel.

According to Funcas, this is due to the

accelerated withdrawal of

monetary stimuli in the face of the increasingly palpable risk of second-round effects on domestic prices and wages.



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  • Unemployment

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