From a German perspective, the French government has expressed unexpected optimism about the economic situation.

"France is not going into recession, France is having a good year 2022," Finance and Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire told CNews on Wednesday - and revised his growth forecast for this year upwards from 2.5 to 2.7 percent.

Niklas Zaboji

Economic correspondent in Paris

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For comparison: Economic researchers recently corrected their forecasts for Germany downwards, the Kiel IfW from 2.1 to 1.4 percent.

France has benefited from flourishing tourism in recent months.

Private consumption and business investment held up and job creation remained "very dynamic," Le Maire said.

The minister does not expect a recession in France for 2023 either, although he lowered his forecast from 1.4 to 1.0 percent due to the Ukraine war, the energy crisis and the weakness of major trading partners.

Many economists are more skeptical.

"We cannot rule out a limited recession," said Banque de France governor François Villeroy de Galhau.

France is more focused on the service sector and therefore less affected by a recession in industry and commerce than Germany, said Allianz chief economist Ludovic Subran.

In addition, the French state supports the economy more generously than the German.

Despite this, Subran expects economic output in France to shrink by 0.6 percent in the coming year.

In Germany it is minus 1.3 percent.

Dark Eiffel Tower

Prime Minister Borne said on Wednesday that the government wants to continue to protect its citizens from rising electricity and gas prices by intervening in the market – but in future less comprehensively than before.

While the regulated gas price is currently frozen and electricity price increases are capped at 4 percent, both are expected to increase by 15 percent in 2023.

In return, there should be one-off payments of 100 to 200 euros for the lowest-income households.

Nevertheless, the energy crisis is reaching the Eiffel Tower: from the end of next week, France's landmark will no longer twinkle until 1 a.m., but will go out shortly after visitors close at 11.45 p.m.

The measure is part of an austerity program that the city of Paris, like municipalities, authorities and companies across the country, has drawn up in view of the impending electricity and gas shortages.

Much of this is more symbolic politics.

For example, the Eiffel Tower's night-time lighting accounts for only 4 percent of its annual energy consumption.

But all in all, the savings efforts are paying off, stressed the French electricity network operator RTE on Wednesday in a scenario analysis of the energy supply in the upcoming winter.

Accordingly, there is an “increased risk of tension in the electricity system, which is manageable thanks to a strong mobilization for measures to reduce consumption”.

signals of confidence

"In no case is there a risk of a 'blackout' in France, ie a complete loss of control over the electricity system," writes RTE.

Power cuts could be avoided by reducing consumption by 1 to 5 percent in the central scenario and up to 15 percent in the most extreme scenario.

France has filled its gas storage facilities well and should, if savings start "now", be able to cope with an average winter and at the same time support neighboring countries with gas, added the gas network operator GRTgaz.

A new capacity for gas export to Germany should be available in mid-October.

The confidence of the network operators may come as a surprise, since France has been struggling with outages in its nuclear power plant park for months and Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne recently prepared the citizens for power cuts of up to two hours in winter.

29 of the 56 reactors are still not producing electricity, partly due to maintenance and partly due to repair work due to a corrosion problem.

But there have been signs of confidence for days.

Prices on the electricity exchange have fallen slightly.

According to the timetable of the power plant operator EDF, all French reactors should be back online by mid-February, the French government was convinced at the beginning of September.

"The work on the nuclear power plant park related to the corrosion problems is progressing well," confirmed the outgoing EDF boss Jean-Bernard Lévy.