Population aging is having a profound impact on my country's economic life.
According to the forecast of the World Bank, by 2040, the elderly population aged 60 and above will reach about 420 million, accounting for more than 30% of the total population.
Under the background of accelerated aging of Chinese society, the risk of elderly care has become a topic of widespread concern in society.
The "Development Opportunities for Commercial Nursing Insurance in China - Research on Long-term Care Service Guarantee in China's Urban Areas" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") recently released by the Insurance Association of China and the Swiss Re Institute predicts that the demand for long-term care services for the elderly in urban areas in my country It will reach nearly 6.6 trillion yuan in 2040, about five times the current level.
By 2040, the long-term care security gap in urban areas will reach 3.8 trillion
The accelerated ageing of the population means an increase in the size of the disabled population and a significant increase in long-term care risks.
According to the survey results of the National Office on Aging, there are about 40.63 million disabled elderly people in China, accounting for 18.3% of the elderly population in the same period.
The report believes that the nursing needs of the disabled elderly have long-term characteristics, and the disability risk faced by healthy people continues to increase with age, and the resulting nursing needs continue to increase.
The report found that in 2021, the long-term care service guarantee gap for the elderly in urban areas in China will be about 921.7 billion yuan, which is equivalent to about 65% of the long-term care service guarantee demand.
From the perspective of capital structure, family expenditure is currently the main source of nursing service expenses for disabled elderly families, accounting for 96% of all available funds; social security long-term protection insurance accounts for about 3% of available funds.
With the trend change of China's population structure and the improvement of residents' living standards, the above report predicts that the demand for long-term care services will reach 3.1 trillion yuan in 2030 and nearly 6.6 trillion yuan in 2040, which is approximately equivalent to the current level 5 times.
Under the baseline assumption, the continuous development of social security long-term care insurance will slowly improve the level of care service protection, and the overall protection level of the disabled elderly will increase from the current 35% to 42% in 2040; the long-term care service protection gap will be in 2030 and In 2040, it will reach 1.9 trillion yuan and 3.8 trillion yuan respectively.
The report believes that the development of social security long-term care insurance will help improve the financing structure of long-term care services.
Under the condition that other conditions remain unchanged, if the expansion rate of long-term care insurance follows the development speed of basic medical insurance, its financial support for elderly care services will continue to increase, and the contribution of long-term care insurance funds to the needs of urban elderly care services The degree will rise from 1.2% in 2021 to 8.9% in 2040.
In response to the long-term care of the disabled elderly, China began to explore the establishment of an effective long-term care insurance system in 2016.
By the end of 2021, the number of pilot cities for the long-term social security insurance system has reached 49.
According to data from the National Medical Insurance Bureau, as of the end of 2021, the number of people participating in social long-term care insurance exceeds 140 million, and the cumulative number of people enjoying benefits is 1.6 million.
The annual per capita burden reduction exceeds 15,000 yuan.
In addition to social security long-term care insurance, commercial long-term care insurance is also an important component.
In 2005, Cathay Life launched the first commercial long-term care insurance product in China. However, the overall development of commercial long-term care insurance has been slow in recent years, and the influence of commercial long-term care insurance is still small.
The supply of long-term care insurance market is still insufficient
The report believes that, in general, the current long-term care insurance market is facing the problem of insufficient supply of protection and nursing services.
In the context of the accelerated aging of Chinese society, it is imperative to speed up the improvement and improvement of the elderly care mechanism.
On the one hand, social security long-term protection insurance still needs to explore a sustainable business model.
Although the long-term care insurance in most pilot cities is currently undertaken by commercial insurance companies, its financing channels and payment still rely heavily on the medical insurance fund, which itself is already facing greater payment pressure.
Therefore, if the long-term social security insurance cannot form an independent financing and payment system, it will affect its sustainable development and the level and scope of protection of the insured objects.
On the other hand, the scale of commercial long-term care insurance is still small, and it has not effectively played its role in risk protection.
Commercial long-term care insurance, as an important supplement to social security long-term care insurance, still has a small market scale and insufficient protection capabilities.
In addition, the disability assessment standards used in practice have certain drawbacks, which restrict the supply capacity of nursing services; the nursing industry faces problems such as shortage of personnel, lack of professionalism, and lack of industry standards.
The development of commercial long-term care insurance requires a sound institutional environment and policy support, and also needs to find its own development direction and path, design differentiated care insurance products, and form a more effective supplement to social security long-term care insurance.
The report believes that improving the security of long-term care services in the whole society is a severe and daunting challenge.
All parties in society need to form a synergy to explore the establishment of multi-party shared responsibility and sustainable long-term care solutions.
In terms of promoting the development of commercial nursing insurance in my country and improving the level of nursing service security, the report puts forward the following suggestions:
In terms of macro system, it is suggested that the government clearly establish a multi-level nursing security system, and give full play to the positioning of commercial insurance in providing supplementary security, meeting diversified needs, and promoting the rational allocation of nursing service resources.
In terms of the regulatory environment, it is recommended that industry regulators gradually improve and improve the infrastructure and institutional environment of the insurance industry, so as to lay the foundation for the risk pricing, risk management, and product liability design of long-term care insurance products.
In addition, encouraging policies such as fiscal and tax incentives and broadening the scope of capital investment have been introduced.
In terms of capacity building, it is recommended that the insurance industry accelerate the exploration of innovative insurance products suitable for China's national conditions, including hybrid security products, integration with health care and pension financial products, and innovation in premium payment methods.
It is recommended that the nursing service industry actively expand its capacity, continuously improve service capabilities and operational efficiency, and provide necessary supplements to the home care needs of the disabled elderly.
In terms of improving quality and efficiency, it is recommended that all stakeholders continue to strengthen research on the security needs of the elderly, capital supply structure, nursing services, international experience, etc., as well as the effectiveness of pilot projects or innovative programs. Improve and perfect the provision of nursing insurance.
With the joint efforts of all parties, a long-term care service system with a long-term mechanism is gradually established. It is recommended to focus on cultivating and establishing a service system centered on the health needs of the elderly, and reduce the risk of disability and nursing care through active prevention and health management methods. At the same time, the collaborative guarantee ability of nursing service providers and insurance companies has been continuously improved, so that the disabled elderly can obtain necessary nursing service support, and at the same time reduce the financial pressure of families.
(Broker China)