(Economic Observation) In the era of new energy, fuel vehicles are about to "end"?
China News Agency, Beijing, September 13th: In the era of new energy, fuel vehicles are about to "end"?
Author Liu Wenwen
"It won't be long before we look at gasoline cars the same way we look at steam engines," Tesla CEO Elon Musk said on social media on the 13th.
Indeed, with the further acceleration of the global energy transformation process, the continuous upgrading of new energy vehicles, and the continuous acceleration of the marketization process, fuel vehicles seem to be withdrawing from the stage of history.
Are fuel vehicles really coming to an end?
Can new energy vehicles carry the traffic banner?
The fuel vehicle that is "ending"
At present, green transformation, pollution reduction and carbon reduction have become a global consensus, and when to ban the sale of fuel vehicles has also become a hot topic in the industry.
Previously, the EU has reached a consensus on "banning the sale of fuel vehicles in the EU by 2035".
The California Air Resources Board also recently passed new regulations that will completely ban the sale of new gasoline-powered vehicles by 2035.
China has also begun to act.
Hainan Province fired the first shot to ban the sale of fuel vehicles, making it clear that by 2030, the whole island will completely ban the sale of fuel vehicles. Hainan has thus become the first province in China to ban the sale of fuel vehicles.
At the same time, more and more Chinese car companies are also planning to "say goodbye" to fuel vehicles.
The Haval brand recently made it clear that it will officially stop the sale of fuel vehicles from 2030; Geely's Tang Jun Ouling also announced that it will stop the production of traditional fuel vehicles in December 2023.
According to Yu Chengdong, Executive Director of Huawei and CEO of Smart Car Solutions BU, the era of pure fuel vehicles will soon come to an end. Buying a fuel vehicle now is tantamount to buying a feature phone in the era of smartphones.
Zhu Huarong, chairman of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co., Ltd., suggested to further accelerate the pace of transformation, put the suspension of sales of fuel vehicles in China on the agenda, and guide enterprises and the whole society to transition to new energy in an orderly manner.
Fuel vehicles seem to be "ending".
China's new energy vehicles "success all the way"
Compared with the fuel vehicles that are "ending", the new energy vehicle industry can be described as "successful all the way".
In the first half of this year, under the influence of unfavorable factors such as repeated epidemics, global auto sales declined.
Under this circumstance, the global new energy vehicle industry has grown against the trend, with sales exceeding 4.2 million units, a year-on-year increase of 66%.
China's new energy vehicle development speed and market size continue to lead the world.
In terms of product types, China's new energy vehicle product matrix is increasingly enriched.
Up to now, there are nearly 300 new energy passenger vehicles on sale in China's auto market, accounting for more than 30% of all passenger vehicles on sale.
In terms of technological development, after years of technological accumulation and market cultivation, the integration of electrification, intelligence and networking of new energy vehicles in China has continued to accelerate, and product competitiveness has been significantly enhanced.
"At present, new energy vehicles have gradually formed a competitive advantage over fuel vehicles in the field of intelligence. For example, in the first half of this year, the penetration rate of L2-level driver assistance systems in new energy vehicles reached 40%, which is relatively Traditional fuel vehicles are nearly 15 percentage points higher," said Zhang Jinhua, executive vice president and secretary general of the Chinese Society of Automotive Engineers.
In terms of marketization, as the promotion of new energy passenger vehicles in China continues to accelerate, the promotion and application of new energy commercial vehicles has also achieved remarkable results.
By the end of 2021, the country has 709,400 urban buses and trams, of which 419,500 are pure electric vehicles, accounting for 59.1%.
Take Yutong, a large commercial vehicle group, as an example. At present, Yutong has mastered new energy core technologies such as pure electric and hydrogen fuel cells, and has sold more than 160,000 new energy buses, leading the world in terms of production and sales scale.
As Zhu Huarong said, China's new energy vehicles have entered the stage of popularization from the original stage of technology early adopters and policy guidance, and have gradually become an important force supporting the development of China's automobile industry.
Will fuel cars be the next steam engine?
At present, the new energy vehicle industry is in full swing, causing a violent impact on fuel vehicles.
Will fuel vehicles become the next steam engine in the future, and will they withdraw from the stage of history?
Can new energy vehicles completely replace fuel vehicles and carry the traffic banner?
Automobile experts in the industry told China News Agency that in the long run, it is a major trend for fuel vehicles to withdraw from the historical stage, but when they really withdraw, it is necessary to consider the future technological development.
It should be pointed out that even if Europe has declared a ban on combustion in 2035, it is still evaluating whether hybrid power can play some role in the future.
"For China, there is no doubt that pure electricity and hydrogen energy are the future development directions of new energy vehicles. Under the premise of energy conservation and emission reduction, China also allows the full development of various technical lines." The expert said.
Li Zhenshan, director of the new energy technology department of Yutong Group, analyzed to China News Agency that in a short period of time, fuel vehicles will not withdraw from the historical stage, and will continue to develop in another form, such as plug-in and hybrid.
But it is certain that the development of new energy vehicles will become stronger and stronger, and will play an increasingly important role in the future traffic pattern.
(Finish)
search
copy