RMB loans increased by 1.25 trillion yuan in August, returning to the trillion-dollar scale——
Effective demand for credit has entered a recovery channel
Our reporter Chen Guojing
On September 9, the financial data for August released by the People's Bank of China showed that, with the support of a series of policies to stabilize growth and the implementation of follow-up policies, credit expansion accelerated in August, and the effective demand for credit from enterprises and households rebounded, which will help. The economy continues to remain within a reasonable range.
Data show that at the end of August, the balance of broad money (M_2) was 259.51 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.2%, and the growth rate was 0.2 and 4 percentage points higher than the end of last month and the same period of the previous year, respectively.
The increase in social financing in August was 2.43 trillion yuan. From January to August, the cumulative increase in social financing was 24.17 trillion yuan, 2.31 trillion yuan more than the same period last year.
Renminbi loans increased by 1.25 trillion yuan in August, an increase of 571 billion yuan from 679 billion yuan in July, and returned to the trillion-dollar scale.
From January to August, RMB loans increased by 15.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 554 billion yuan.
Among them, M_2 continued to maintain a relatively high growth rate at the end of August, indicating that the market liquidity was reasonably sufficient.
Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, analyzed that M_2 maintained a relatively high growth rate because, on the one hand, new credit has rebounded significantly compared with the previous month, and the derivative effect of deposits has increased; on the other hand, the acceleration of fiscal expenditure will help market liquidity improve.
It is worth noting that while the new credit in August rebounded significantly from the previous month, the credit structure has improved, which is reflected in the "one increase and one decrease" in the data.
In August, the increase in bill financing significantly decreased, while the increase in medium and long-term loans increased year-on-year.
In August, bill financing increased by 159.1 billion yuan.
In terms of medium and long-term loans, medium and long-term loans to residents increased by 265.8 billion yuan, and medium and long-term loans to enterprises increased by 735.3 billion yuan.
Wen Bin analyzed that, among them, medium and long-term loans were the second month of the year to increase year-on-year after June.
Regarding the financial data in August, Wang Yunjin, a senior researcher at Zhixin Investment Research Institute, believes that with the accelerated implementation of a series of stabilizing growth policies and follow-up policies, the improvement of financial data, especially the relatively obvious recovery of medium and long-term credit, coupled with the loan market quotation interest rate (LPR) has been lowered, and demand has rebounded, which may be gradually transmitted to the investment and consumption side in the future.
In the next stage, Wen Bin believes that in order to consolidate the foundation for economic stabilization and recovery, it is necessary to continue to exert the combined effect of a package of policies to stabilize the economy and follow-up measures, use investment to drive consumption, increase employment and entrepreneurship, support the continuous recovery of effective credit demand, and foster growth. Market players and new economic drivers enhance the sustainability of economic restoration.
On the one hand, monetary policy should actively support the expansion of effective investment, and give full play to the important role of policy-based development financial instruments in stabilizing growth in the third and fourth quarters; The credit support will increase the promotion of employment and entrepreneurship, boost market confidence and expand consumption.
Regarding the trend of monetary policy, Liu Guoqiang, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, said that in the next stage, the People's Bank of China will implement a sound monetary policy, strengthen the foundation for economic recovery and development, and will not engage in "flooding" or overdraft the future.
In addition, the guiding role of interest rates quoted in the loan market and the market-oriented adjustment mechanism of deposit interest rates will be further brought into play, and financial institutions will be guided to transmit the effect of falling deposit interest rates to the loan side, reducing the cost of corporate financing and personal credit.
Wen Bin believes that under this background, it is still possible to reduce the medium-term lending facility (MLF) and open market operation interest rates in the future, and then guide the LPR to continue to decline, so as to reduce the cost of corporate financing and personal credit, and support the continuous recovery of effective demand for credit.
At the same time, it is also expected to continue to reduce the debt cost of financial institutions and create conditions for financial institutions to further transfer profits to the real economy.