The ECB marks the pace of the markets before a new rate hike to combat inflation

The

(ECB) today focuses the eyes of governments, markets and investors on what is expected to be a new historic day for the body.

No one doubts that the entity will announce a new rate hike this Thursday, the unknown is how far the hike will go and how the stock markets and bonds will react to it.

Since the last meeting, when rates were raised by 50 basis points for the first time in a decade, investors have begun to price in another hike of the same amount for the September meeting.

However,

and a tougher stance from the Federal Reserve in the US have raised expectations of a final rise of 75 points.

In this way, rates could stand at 1.25 this week, while forecasts for the end of the year have risen to 2.25%, the highest level since 2008.

"We believe that the ECB Governing Council will try to bring its official interest rates to neutral territory reasonably quickly, and we expect further official interest rate hikes of 50 basis points in October and December," says

portfolio manager at

Along the same lines, Veit hopes that the Eurobank's governing body will make it clear "that a neutral policy may not be appropriate in all conditions. We expect a transition to increases of 25 basis points next year, as the cycle of increases move from the normalization of politics to its hardening", he adds.

The entity walks with lead feet in the complex macroeconomic scenario in which it operates.

In the

, their commitment to prices is becoming clearer, but despite this, Christine Lagarde and the rest of the members of the Governing Council are aware that they cannot neglect their impact on the recovery and, above all, the so-called risk of fragmentation.

In other words, the real risk that monetary normalization ends up leading to a

, including Spain.

On the other hand, the weakness of the euro and the high costs of energy imports also argue for a rise in short-term rates.

In addition, the ECB will review its macroeconomic projections, which should recognize a lower growth path and higher inflation for the final stretch of the year.

It remains to be seen whether the inflation outlook will still reach the 2% target at the end of the forecast horizon.

Investors will be very aware of all this, hence the reaction of the stock markets and especially of bonds is one of the focuses of the day.

The main European indices have opened this Thursday with cautious increases.

In Spain, the

goes up almost 0.6% compared to Wednesday's close and has recovered the barrier of 7,900 points;

Somewhat lower have also started the Cac 40 in Paris, the Dax in Frankfurt, the Italian Ftse Mib and the Euro Stoxx 50.

The price of the

stands at 0.9999

, while the risk premium stands at 117 basis points and the return on the 10-year Spanish bond at 2.701%.

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• Inflation

• Christine Lagarde