OPEC+ meeting unexpectedly announced a small production cut, international crude oil futures rose more than 2%

　　Our reporter Xie Ruolin

　　Trainee reporter Han Yu

　　According to Xinhua Finance News, on the evening of September 5th, Beijing time, OPEC+ (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners) held the 32nd ministerial meeting and decided to cut crude oil production by 100,000 barrels per day in October.

Earlier, OPEC+ agreed to increase output in September by 100,000 barrels per day, the smallest increase in the alliance's history.

The decision to cut production also offset the previous increase.

　　Before the meeting, most markets expected OPEC+ to maintain production quotas for October.

Although only 100,000 barrels per day were finally cut, many analysts said that this production cut released OPEC+'s goal of stabilizing the recent downward trend in global oil prices.

After the decision to cut production was announced, international oil prices also suspended their downward momentum and rose collectively.

WTI crude oil futures and Brent oil futures both rose by more than 2%.

　　In fact, since June this year, the international crude oil price has changed from the high trend in the first half of the year, and has continued to fluctuate down.

Wind data shows that since the settlement price of Brent oil futures reached a periodical high of $123.58 per barrel on June 8, it has fallen by about 22.5% so far, to $95.74 per barrel on September 5.

　　Talking about the recent downward trend of international crude oil prices, Wang Youxin, a senior researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the rapid rise in crude oil prices in the first half of the year was mainly affected by speculation and speculation amid international geopolitical conflicts, and the market gradually digested the supply side. After the shock, with the tightening of global liquidity and the withdrawal of financial investment capital, the trend of crude oil prices has gradually returned to the influence of supply and demand fundamentals.

At present, major developed economies such as Europe and the United States are facing greater economic downside risks. The trend of industrial production and related consumption activities is weak, and the global crude oil demand is gradually falling, which puts pressure on international oil prices.

　　Zheng Houcheng, director of Yingda Securities Research Institute, also said in an interview with a reporter from "Securities Daily" that in August, JPMorgan Chase's global manufacturing PMI new orders index recorded 48.20, which was below the line of prosperity and decline for two consecutive months, reflecting that in Europe and the United States Under the circumstance that the economy is facing greater economic downside risks, the global market demand is relatively weak, and the demand side has also exerted great pressure on international oil prices.

　　Wang Youxin also believes that driven by factors such as the Fed’s accelerated rate hike process and risk aversion, the US dollar index has risen strongly. The price of crude oil, which is mainly denominated in US dollars, is usually negatively correlated with the trend of the US dollar. The strong US dollar also restrained the trend of crude oil prices.

　　Although the OPEC+ decision to cut production slightly pushed up international oil prices in the short term, experts interviewed said that the macro negative factors that suppressed international oil prices still existed.

　　Zheng Houcheng believes that the current US macro economy has entered a stage of passive inventory replenishment, and the Federal Reserve has continued to raise interest rates significantly to tighten liquidity. It is expected that its economic growth will continue to be under pressure in the future.

Developed economies in Europe and the United States are widely faced with similar problems. Even if OPEC+ releases the signal to reduce production in the later period, although the international oil price will rise due to the supply and demand relationship in the short term, the upward trend of international oil price will still be suppressed under the circumstance of weakening global aggregate demand. Continue to fall back.

(Securities Daily)

　　"From the perspective of demand in the future, global liquidity and the economic growth of developed economies in Europe and the United States may further decline, and the crude oil price center will fall significantly from the high point in the first half of the year." Wang Youxin believes.