Sino-Singapore Jingwei, September 7th (Fu Jianqing) There are still three trading days. The Mid-Autumn Festival holiday is approaching, and the double festival curtain is about to kick off. Will the A-share market still usher in "Golden Nine Silver Ten" this year?
Is it better to hold stocks or hold currency during the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday?
Consumption concept welcomes opportunities
In the first eight months of this year, the overall A-share market showed a downward trend. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 12.02%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 20.47%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 22.64%.
From the perspective of sectors, among the 31 industries of Shenwan, 27 ended with a decline in the August before the end of the year. The computer, medicine and biology, defense and military industry, electronics, light manufacturing, media, food and beverage industries led the decline, while the coal industry rose. More than 20% led the two cities.
Data source: Wind Mapping: Sino-Singapore Jingwei Fu Jianqing
However, there has always been a saying in the market that "golden nine and silver ten", due to entering the "double festival" operating range of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, consumption has become one of the main driving forces for the rise.
There are still three trading days, and the Mid-Autumn Festival is coming soon. Listed companies whose main products are moon cakes and other festive cakes will usher in the seasonal harvest period, and traditional consumption lines such as liquor will also usher in a positive.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, told Sino-Singapore Jingwei that some consumer products related to the festival before the Mid-Autumn Festival often attract market attention, such as moon cakes, liquor, etc., and related concept stocks may have a certain performance.
Consumption is a relatively large direction affected by the epidemic this year, but in the long run, consumption white horse stocks have long-term investment value, and the temporary decline in performance actually creates opportunities for bargain hunting.
Chen Mengjie, chief strategist of Yuekai Securities Research Institute, pointed out that in terms of food and beverages, the downward trend of the cost side is combined with the expectation of product price increases, and the dark moment of the sector has passed. Among them, the pork sector is supported by the continued strength of pork prices. Strong; the sales of mid-to-high-end liquor in the liquor segment are less affected by the epidemic. With the effective control of the epidemic, the sales of mid-to-low-end liquor are expected to continue to pick up.
Mid-Autumn Festival to hold shares or hold currency?
During the holiday period, investors are most concerned about choosing whether to hold shares or hold currency for the holidays because they are worried about being affected by fluctuations in overseas markets.
Sino-Singapore Jingwei combed the trend of the A-share market before and after the Mid-Autumn Festival in the past 10 years and found that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 60% in the five trading days after the festival, and the CSI 500 Index reached 70%.
Chen Mengjie believes that with the increasing expectations of global economic recession and the high probability of subsequent decline in external demand, endogenous driving forces such as consumption and investment have become an important force for consolidating the foundation of economic recovery.
At the policy level, recent high-level meetings have repeatedly emphasized rationally increasing policy efforts, expanding consumption and effective investment, and there is a strong willingness to stabilize expectations.
More policies to promote consumption are expected to be introduced more quickly in the future, and the trend of consumer stocks under the economic background of "increasing domestic demand and declining external demand" and "under PPI and increasing CPI" is expected.
In addition, the current national epidemic has entered a normalized management, and the offline consumption of tourism, catering, and social service industries is expected to be marginally improved in the short term during the Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day and other holidays.
Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai Securities and director of the research institute, pointed out to Sino-Singapore Jingwei that relatively speaking, consumption will be more elastic during the holiday period, "it is still worth looking forward to, and short-term stock holdings will be relatively good."
"The traditional 'Golden Nine Silver Ten' is an opportunity to 'rebound'." Yang Delong also believes that consumer stocks have fallen a lot before. If you hold consumer white horse stocks, you can hold shares for the holidays.
In other sectors, if you hold individual stocks in new energy, including clean energy, they are all in the direction of policy support, and you can also consider holding shares for the holidays.
(Sino-Singapore Jingwei APP)
(The opinions in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.)
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