Seven years after the implementation of the most stringent "purchase restriction order", news of the loosening of the "double purchase restriction" came out from Tongzhou, the sub-center of Beijing.
On the 25th, there were rumors that employees of a municipal state-owned enterprise in Beijing received an e-mail about the qualifications for purchasing houses in Tongzhou District. To play an exemplary and leading role in the work of functional relief, Tongzhou District intends to allow the company's employees who have the qualification to purchase a house in Beijing to purchase a house in Tongzhou District.
On the morning of the 26th, Yicai called the Tongzhou District Housing and Construction Commission, and a staff member in charge of consulting on housing qualification requirements told reporters that he had heard that the groups enjoying the relaxation of housing qualifications include: some of the list of non-capital functional relief projects Employees of enterprises and institutions and related personnel of investment promotion.
"However, the specific promotion work is not led by the Tongzhou Housing and Urban-rural Development Commission, and we are not in charge of the approval of housing purchase qualifications. From the perspective of the process, it is necessary for the unit to screen a certain number of personnel lists according to certain standards, and then uniformly hand it over to Beijing from the district. The relevant review unit in the city will review and finally determine whether the reporting person can buy a house." The staff member suggested that because there are differences in whether employees of the same unit enjoy the preferential treatment of the qualification for buying a house, it is recommended to directly consult the work unit.
Another local intermediary revealed to reporters that as early as around March this year, the opening of Tongzhou’s purchase restrictions had been quietly opened. For employees of some enterprises and institutions in the Tongzhou Canal Business District, the qualification requirements for social security for three consecutive years were shortened to three months.
"But the beneficiaries are relatively limited. The relaxation of purchase restrictions is only for the new housing market."
Property market transactions fall back to seven years ago
According to the "Notice on Strengthening the Management of Commodity Housing Sales in Tongzhou District" jointly issued by the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the Tongzhou District People's Government in 2015, on the basis of complying with Beijing's current purchase restriction policy, it is possible to purchase a set of commercial housing in Tongzhou District. Families still need to meet one of the four additional conditions.
The four categories of conditions are: Beijing-registered households without housing; Tongzhou households with one set of housing must settle in Tongzhou for more than 3 years; households with households in other districts and counties 3 years of continuous payment of social insurance or personal income tax in Tongzhou District; foreigners who do not have a house in Beijing need to continuously pay social insurance or personal income tax in Tongzhou District for the past 3 years.
This means that after the upgrade of Tongzhou's "purchase restriction order", Beijing residents who own a property in other districts of Beijing, but who plan to buy a property in Tongzhou due to job transfer and other reasons, need to sell the original property and then buy the first property in Tongzhou. Set of commercial housing; if it is a married family, you can also choose to work in Tongzhou for 3 years, and then buy a second set of commercial housing after meeting the conditions for 3 years of social security or personal tax.
The reason for upgrading the housing purchase restriction in Tongzhou, Tongzhou Housing and Urban-rural Development Commission once mentioned in a micro-interview with the head of the "sub-center planning and construction" held in 2017, on the one hand, it is necessary to adhere to the living nature of housing and curb real estate speculation; It is hoped that the balance of work and residence in Tongzhou can be achieved through social security household registration and other conditions.
Yicai noticed that in the year when the "double limit" policy was introduced in Tongzhou, Beijing, it was at a time when the country focused on "destocking" and the national property market policy was generally relaxed.
But at that time, affected by good news such as the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the relocation of the Beijing Municipal Government to Tongzhou, the property market in Tongzhou heated up rapidly, and the housing prices in Tongzhou also rose.
The Tongzhou Housing and Urban-rural Development Commission's early crackdown on reluctance to sell, false propaganda, and malicious price gouging were fruitless, and Tongzhou's inventory was in a hurry.
According to the latest research report of Centaline Property, in the year before the "double limit" policy (2014.9-2015.8), a total of 7,361 new commercial housing units were sold in Tongzhou District, with an average monthly transaction of 613 units, while the "double limit" policy was implemented for one year (2015.9-2016.8 ) accumulatively traded 3,842 sets, with an average monthly trade volume of 320 sets, down 48% from the previous period, and the city-wide decline was only 4% over the same period.
In 2021, the transaction volume of the Tongzhou property market will reach the highest peak in the seven years since the purchase restriction, but it has not yet exceeded 5,000 units.
Among them, the new housing market, which is easier to be touched by policy regulation, has fallen more significantly.
According to the above research report, from 2013 to 2015, the proportion of new house transactions in Tongzhou accounted for more than 15% of the city's total, and since 2016, as of mid-August 2022, the proportion of new house transactions has not returned to the "double limit" policy. forward.
According to statistics from the Tongzhou District Bureau of Statistics, from January to May 2022, the sales area of commercial housing in Tongzhou District was 406,290 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%; however, the newly started area was 295,424 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 14.5%.
The regional land market also cooled overall.
In February this year, Tongzhou held a 2022 proposed land promotion meeting, and plans to supply 10 lands throughout the year, including 8 residential lands.
However, as of the beginning of August, there are still plots that have not been officially listed and successfully sold in the residential land.
How will the property market be affected after the "purchase restrictions" are loosened?
"Compared with seven years ago, Tongzhou's housing market has undergone significant changes," said Wang Yeqiang, director of the China Urban Economics Association's Real Estate Special Committee and vice-chairman of the China Regional Science Association.
He told reporters that, on the one hand, after the tightening of the housing purchase policy, while combating speculation and speculation, it also suppressed some rigid and improving needs.
"As the sub-center of Beijing, Tongzhou's population, industry, and infrastructure construction are about to usher in a rapid development climax. Overly strict property market regulation is not conducive to Tongzhou's long-term development."
On the other hand, Beijing has always been the vane of the national property market policy. Before that, even though the overall downward pressure on the national property market was relatively large, Beijing's property market regulation policy has been relatively tight.
However, in recent months, Beijing has begun to loosen loan and purchase restrictions for some regions and specific groups of people, which fully shows that the property market has reached a critical inflection point, or indicates the overall relaxation of the national property market policy.
"In addition, Tongzhou's current development orientation has been clarified, and strategic plans for relevant areas have also been introduced. As an important means to achieve high-quality development in Tongzhou, real estate is subject to the overall development of the industry, and it is time to relax purchase restrictions." Wang Yeqiang said.
In the second year after the introduction of the "Double Limit" policy, the positioning of Tongzhou changed, from "city administrative sub-center" to "city sub-center".
According to the requirements of the overall planning of Beijing, the population control target of the Beijing sub-center by 2035 is 1.3 million, and it will undertake the relief of 400,000 to 500,000 people in the central area of Beijing.
From the perspective of the supply side, at the beginning of the formulation of the "double limit" policy, the staged background of rapid de-sale of the regional property market and insufficient supply no longer exists. At present, there is even a backlog of inventory in the local property market.
According to data from the Middle Index Research Institute, from 2017 to 2021, the number of saleable units and saleable area of the commercial residential market in Tongzhou District continued to rise, from 2,835 units and 308,631 square meters in 2017 to 10,620 and 1,301,360 square meters in 2021, respectively.
Under the influence of multiple factors, since last year, there have been signals of loosening purchase restrictions in the surrounding areas of Tongzhou.
In April 2021, on the message board of the leaders of People's Daily Online, in response to the question from netizens that "some areas of Majuqiao have been officially assigned to Yizhuang Development Zone, when will the original purchase restriction policy of Tongzhou District be lifted", Beijing Economic and Technological Development Zone replied, " Up to now, the Yizhuang New Town area has been implemented according to the original purchase policy. However, "we are actively studying" the policy of restricting the purchase of houses in the Yizhuang New Town area.
In Yanjiao, which is across the river from Tongzhou, it was officially announced in August this year that the purchase and sale restrictions were completely cancelled.
According to the "Six Measures on Supporting the Virtuous Cycle and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Industry" released by the official platform of "Langfang Government Affairs" recently, the "Understanding Card" will cancel the household registration, social security (personal tax) and other restrictive purchase conditions that are not suitable for the current real estate market situation. For key areas such as the "Three North Counties" (Sanhe, Dachang, Xianghe) and the surrounding counties (cities) of the Xiong'an New Area, the housing sales restrictions for non-local households will be cancelled.
Wang Yeqiang predicts that with the relaxation of purchase restrictions in Tongzhou, it will further promote the property market around Beijing.
"But there will be no obvious effect in the short term, and further judgments need to be made based on the overall market development."
Then, with the gradual relaxation of the purchase restriction policy in Tongzhou and surrounding areas, how to prevent the "fake fire" of the property market east of the core area of the capital with more industries and population?
Wang Yeqiang put forward four suggestions: first, in the implementation of the property market relaxation policy, we should still adhere to the keynote of "housing, not speculating," so as to form stable market expectations; second, we must adhere to the regulation of city-specific policies and one city-specific policy Direction, strengthen the main responsibility of the regional government to maintain the stability of the property market and the initiative in the regulation of the property market; third, strengthen the supply-side reform of the property market, focus on meeting the rigid and improved needs of new citizens, and strengthen land support policies; fourth, it is necessary to Combining the relaxation of the purchase restriction policy with the development of the affordable rental market will further stabilize housing prices and better meet housing needs at different levels.