Original title: Why is there still a lack of electricity when the power installed capacity hits a new high
Wang Yichen
Industrial enterprises staggered production, suspended landscape lighting, and advocated saving electricity... Recently, under extremely high temperature weather, Anhui, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Sichuan and other places have started orderly electricity consumption, which has brought some benefits to the production and life of some enterprises and residents. to have some influence.
Among them, Sichuan Province launched the first-level emergency response to emergency energy supply guarantee for the first time.
The sudden "shortage" of electricity has puzzled netizens who have been accustomed to the freedom of electricity use in recent years: Why is the installed power frequency hitting a new high and the electricity is not enough?
The big discussion about power rationing has also become a hot topic recently.
Power cuts in many places, is the electricity really not enough?
In fact, for a long time since the reform and opening up, due to the rapid economic development, my country's power supply has been in "tight days" most of the time.
During this process, there have also been several serious power shortages. Due to insufficient investment, unable to keep up with the growth rate of electricity consumption, and the weak power transmission and distribution capacity of the power grid, power outages have become commonplace.
However, after decades of development, my country has accelerated the reform of the power system and increased investment in power, and the power industry has achieved leapfrog development.
At present, my country's ranking in the "Access to Electricity" indicator has risen sharply to 12th in the world, and the world's largest clean coal-fired power supply system has been built, and the installed capacity of renewable energy ranks first in the world.
In this context, the situation of electricity shortage has reappeared, which is fundamentally different from the "electricity shortage" caused by the lack of electricity in history.
On the one hand, the cooling demand during the peak summer and the heating demand during the winter increase sharply, and the electricity difference between peak and valley continues to widen, and the supply capacity is difficult to meet the peak electricity demand.
Since the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, although my country's energy supply and demand are generally loose, regional and periodic supply shortages have occurred in electricity, coal, and natural gas.
Especially in recent years, extreme weather has occurred frequently around the world. In the winter of 2020 and this summer, many areas have suffered from cold waves and extreme high temperature and dry weather, which have exacerbated the shortage of electricity.
This phenomenon not only occurs in my country, but in February and July 2021, regions such as Texas and California in the United States experienced severe cold and extreme high temperature successively, some energy facilities were interrupted, and power supply was in crisis.
How to ensure the security of energy supply under seasonal peak loads and extreme weather is a common problem facing the world.
On the other hand, the rapid growth of installed capacity of new energy sources such as wind and solar has made it increasingly difficult to maintain a balance between power supply and demand.
Judging from the current installed power generation capacity of 2.46 billion kilowatts in my country, the power supply is relatively abundant.
However, in actual operation, it is difficult to achieve instantaneous balance during the peak period of electricity consumption.
Due to the randomness, volatility, and intermittent characteristics of new energy sources, such as "extremely hot and no wind", "no light in the evening peak", "clouds come and no light", etc., it is impossible to participate in the power balance "as soon as they are called" , while the installed capacity of thermal power and nuclear power for stable and precise dispatch does not exceed 1.4 billion kilowatts, which is not enough to meet peak electricity demand.
When extreme weather conditions occur, such as when the river is dry and the wind is insufficient in today's summer, measures must be taken to limit power consumption and reduce the load in order to ensure the safety of the power system.
For a period of time in the future, as the electrification level of all walks of life and residents continues to rise rapidly, new electricity loads such as electric vehicles, electric heating, and smart home appliances will emerge in large numbers, and the proportion of installed renewable energy will continue to increase. There have been major changes in consumption patterns, and the challenges of supply guaranteeing will continue to be faced during peak summer and winter.
New situations require new approaches.
In the traditional energy supply and demand relationship, when it comes to ensuring supply, it is to put a burden on the energy production side. If electricity, heat, natural gas and other loads cannot be supplied at critical moments, energy shortages may occur.
In fact, more than 97% of the maximum load of the provincial power grid lasts only a few dozen hours in a year, corresponding to less than one thousandth of the total power.
If you simply put pressure on the supply side just to meet the short-term peak demand, it will increase the pressure on the security of supply, and you need to invest more backup power, which is not conducive to improving the operating efficiency of the system, and the economy is not high.
In the traditional energy supply and demand relationship, the demand side is usually a "blind box", and the adjustment value is not fully recognized.
In the face of extreme situations, it is necessary to change the idea of guaranteeing supply, so that energy consumption on the demand side can also be increased and decreased, and even try to "see the sky to eat" to a certain extent, and adjust the energy load according to the weather and new energy power generation.
It is necessary to make full use of digital technologies such as electric power big data, virtual power plants, and artificial intelligence, and through the establishment of reasonable market mechanisms, price mechanisms, and administrative means, fully tap the potential of demand-side adjustment, and increase the elasticity of energy demand.
Increase the scope of application of virtual power plants, guide large power users to participate in the power auxiliary service market, actively avoid peaks and off-peak power consumption, advocate residents to save electricity, and strengthen the two-way interaction between supply and demand with users as the center.
Only by reasonably matching the time and space characteristics of supply and demand can the revolution of energy production and consumption continue to deepen.