The economy has developed better than feared in recent months.
However, it is possible, although not certain, that the German economy will enter a recession in the coming months.
Beyond these short-term fluctuations in economic activity that are difficult to predict, the question arises as to how the longer-term prospects can be assessed.
Because the transformation task that lies ahead of the German economy will consume considerable resources.
The better the economy is positioned, the easier this transformation will be.
It doesn't look very good.
On the one hand, the competitiveness of the economy suffers from the significant increase in energy prices after the end of the illusion of eternally cheap Russian gas.
There are no signs of a political framework under which these sources will flow again as they used to.
On the contrary: the supposedly reliable gentleman in the Kremlin will mercilessly test the West's resilience over the winter - and anyone who would simply let Russian imperialism do its thing would lose more than self-respect and what was left of understanding on the part of their Western partners.
That doesn't mean nothing could be done.
The ever-increasing energy prices not only express a shortage of supply.
They also reflect doubts that the required and possible savings will materialize.
The consistency and coherence of economic policy that is necessary from a regulatory point of view can certainly not be expected in its purest form in extremely uncertain and turbulent times.
But the federal government's energy policy has reached an incoherence from which no positive effects can be expected.
However, what is needed is not only a better energy policy, but also an economic policy in general that enables more competition and growth.
These include faster approval procedures, modernization of the infrastructure, a reduction in unnecessary regulations, pragmatic agreements in foreign trade and a labor market policy that enables a higher supply of qualified employment.