The joy of cheap local public transport (ÖPNV) will come to an abrupt end after the end of the 9-euro ticket next week.

However, things could get even worse next year: then the joy threatens to turn into a pure hangover mood, fear the large associations that represent the interests of transport companies in Germany.

Corinna Budras

Business correspondent in Berlin.

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In letters to Federal Transport Minister Volker Wissing (FDP), the transport ministers of the federal states and the members of the Bundestag Transport Committee, they open up two threatening scenarios: If the federal government does not provide additional funds of 1.5 billion euros this year, either the offer will be "massively restricted" - by up to 30 percent.

That would also cost jobs in the regions.

Or there is a threat of tariff increases of up to 20 percent, according to a letter from the Federal Association of Local Rail Transport, the Association of German Transport Companies and the Association of Private Competitive Railways Mofair.

The price increases of 20 percent are about the tariffs that applied before the 9-euro ticket, not about the heavily discounted version,

The letter reached the federal and state governments before a special meeting of transport ministers this Friday, where they want to discuss the 9-euro ticket and the future of public transport.

In the run-up to the meeting, the associations are taking up a topic that already dominated the debate in spring and led to heated discussions - before the 9-euro ticket attracted all the attention.

New vehicles are becoming more expensive

After the fuss about the one-off relief measure has subsided, the old problems are back on the table: the transport companies are also suffering from the rising energy and personnel costs, and so far they have not received any compensation for this, although the traffic light government has already increased the federal subsidy, known under the catchphrase of regionalization funds.

But Federal Minister of Transport Wissing has not yet given a specific number – much to the annoyance of the transport companies and their country colleagues.

First of all, he would like to clear the thicket of confusing co-financing by the federal and state governments.

The states are responsible for the provision of public transport, but the federal government is obliged to support the service with billions every year.

In their letters, the operators describe the main cost drivers in public transport: Vehicle procurement accounts for 20 percent, it says.

Compared to 2021, purchase prices have risen by up to 30 percent.

The vehicles are becoming more and more expensive because they are equipped with alternative drives in order to become more environmentally friendly.

Unlike in the past, vehicle manufacturers are no longer willing to bear the risks of rising material costs.

The production of the vehicles often takes two to four years - from the signing of the contract to the delivery of the last vehicle.

"This leads to further significant price increases and an additional shift of risk to the authorities," writes the Federal Association of Local Rail Transport.

Personnel costs are also increasing

The rising interest rates aren't making life any easier either: the significantly increased financing costs made the procurement of around 200 new vehicles more expensive.

The association calculates that personnel costs are similarly unpredictable.

Their share of the total costs is also up to 20 percent.

There, the cost increases in the past two years have each been about 3 percent.

However, with wage demands in other sectors, which are sometimes over 8 percent, this is also an area that will continue to burden companies in the future.

The transport ministers and the members of the transport committee of the German Bundestag are well aware of this problem: At a hearing of the transport committee in May, all experts warned that a significant increase in federal regionalization funds was urgently needed.

The federal government is already transferring 9.4 billion euros to the federal states this year.

The problem will not get any smaller in the future either.

It has long been decided that the regionalization funds should increase by 1.8 percent every year.

But here the assessment of the transport companies is also clear: that is no longer enough to compensate for the cost increases.