The debates about how economic policy should deal with the gas supply should not lose sight of the global economic environment, which remains of considerable importance for the German economy, which is closely intertwined with other countries.

In short: the global economic outlook is becoming gloomier.

Economic growth in China is slowing.

The US economy, which had previously overheated, may only return to a path of stabilization at the price of a temporary recession.

And an at least temporary recession also seems possible in Europe, not least because the German economy is going through a difficult phase.

China's extreme politics

The biggest risks may be in the country that has turbocharged the global economy in good times and bad over the past few decades.

With its extreme anti-pandemic policies, China has created weak demand that may not simply be overcome with expansive monetary and financial policies.

Demographic trends and the geopolitical situation, which together with the disruptions to world trade in many countries are raising doubts about the benefits of globalization, also argue against a return to the old growth dynamic.

This is also not good news for the German economy, which is about to undergo far-reaching transformation.

In the short term, however, there are also glimmers of hope that speak against a fall into a deep recession.

With the news of economic weakness in many countries, numerous raw materials have already become noticeably cheaper.

It is quite possible that this trend will continue.

Falling commodity prices ease inflationary pressures;

Therefore, the key interest rate hikes necessary to restore monetary stability may turn out to be lower than previously assumed.

After all, assuming appropriate savings, Europe should be able to get through the winter better with gas than Moscow might wish.