Judging from the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on August 15, the growth rate of multiple indicators such as real estate development investment, commercial housing sales area and sales, and real estate funds in place from January to July continued to decline year-on-year, and the decline expanded.
In a single month, the sales area and sales amount of commercial housing in July both increased year-on-year.
Industry insiders believe that the new housing market will cool down in stages in July. In the short term, local policies are expected to increase due to the city. The relevant measures of "guaranteing and handing over buildings" in various regions are also expected to be implemented faster. The supervision of the new housing market will be more robust to ensure the restoration of the new housing market.
The year-on-year decline in monthly sales indicators expanded
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that from January to July, the sales area of commercial housing was 781.78 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 23.1%; the sales of commercial housing was 7,576.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.8%.
"The new housing market cooled in stages in July." Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst at Shell Research Institute, said that in July, the sales area of commercial housing and commercial housing across the country fell by more than 45% month-on-month, and sales fell by more than 40% month-on-month.
Cumulatively, from January to July, the cumulative year-on-year decline in the sales area and sales of new houses has expanded compared with the previous month.
Chen Wenjing, market research director of the Index Division of the China Index Research Institute, also pointed out that in July, the sales area and value of commercial housing both fell year-on-year, 10.6 and 7.4 percentage points higher than in June, and the monthly sales volume was only higher than that in April this year.
Regarding the reasons for the short-term sales decline in the new housing market, Xu Xiaole believes that firstly, the suspension of construction and delayed delivery of some urban off-plan housing projects in July made homebuyers more wait-and-see, and the pace of entry into the market slowed down; Market sales fell seasonally.
Chen Wenjing also believes that the frequency of city-specific policies slowed down across the country in July. Affected by factors such as seasonality, the increase in delayed delivery projects in some cities, and the reduction in the phenomenon of centralized online signing of projects, the activity of the national real estate market declined again in July. Confidence in home ownership is insufficient, and market expectations are weaker.
According to Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, on the one hand, although the housing loan data has recovered recently, market confidence has not fully recovered, and most home buyers have no confidence to enter the market, and the overall market transaction is very sluggish.
On the other hand, because the overall market in 2021 will be sluggish in the first half of the year and blowout in the second half of the year, the overall value in the second half of last year is higher.
In addition, due to the delay in the delivery of houses in some areas, home buyers are fully cautious.
On July 28, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee emphasized that "it is necessary to stabilize the real estate market, adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living, not for speculation, and make full use of the policy toolbox to support rigid and improved housing needs. Consolidate the responsibilities of local governments, ensure the delivery of buildings, and stabilize people's livelihood."
Chen Wenjing predicts that in the short term, local policies are expected to increase by city. In the future, more cities will follow up and optimize real estate policies, and local "guarantee handover" measures are also expected to accelerate.
At the same time, on August 15, the central bank's medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation and the open market reverse repurchase operation's winning interest rates both fell by 10 basis points, which may bring a certain boost to the expectations of the real estate market.
From the perspective of the market, it will take some time to restore market confidence in the short term, the market adjustment situation will be difficult to change, and the year-on-year decline in the national commercial housing sales may still be large.
The growth rate of development investment and real estate enterprises funds in place continues to decline
From the perspective of investment indicators, data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that from January to July, the national real estate development investment was 7,946.2 billion yuan, down 6.4% year-on-year; the newly started housing area was 760.67 million square meters, down 36.1% year-on-year; the land purchase area was 45.46 million square meters, down 48.1% year-on-year.
Chen Wenjing pointed out that with the decline in sales activity and the weakening of market expectations, the year-on-year decline in real estate development investment and new construction area continued to expand. In July, the real estate development investment fell by more than 12%, and the new housing area fell year-on-year. It remained above 40%, and the decline was 2.9 and 0.3 percentage points higher than that in June, respectively. The willingness of enterprises to invest and start construction has not improved.
Xu Xiaole also said that the decline in sales receipts in July superimposed that that month was the peak of most housing companies’ debt repayments, and housing companies’ investment and start-up momentum was weak.
However, Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, believes that although the development and investment data is currently under great pressure, with the advancement of policies to stabilize the property market in various regions, especially the policy guarantee of "guaranteing delivery", such data will still remain in the future. There is room for improvement.
From the perspective of the capital situation of housing enterprises, data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that from January to July, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 8.877 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.4%.
Among them, domestic loans were 1,103 billion yuan, down 28.4% year-on-year; foreign capital was 5.3 billion yuan, up 20.7% year-on-year; self-raised funds were 3,149.5 billion yuan, down 11.4% year-on-year; deposits and advance receipts were 2,857.5 billion yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year; personal Mortgage loans were 1,416.9 billion yuan, down 25.2% year-on-year.
In Chen Wenjing's view, in the short term, the relevant measures of "guaranteing the handover of buildings" in various places have been continuously implemented, the resumption of project work may be improved, and real estate development investment is expected to be marginally repaired.
The financial pressure of enterprises is superimposed and the sales recovery is not obvious, and the strength and willingness of enterprises to start construction may still be weak.
Looking ahead, Xu Xiaole believes that the delayed delivery of new houses in some cities in July will affect the repair rhythm of the new house market, especially in second- and third-tier cities with weak market fundamentals. Taking corresponding measures, many real estate projects involved have resumed work, and it is expected that the supervision of projects under construction will be more complete in the later stage to ensure the restoration of the new housing market.
(Broker China)